On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. <br><br> Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. <br><br> Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. <br><br> We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions vs. low CO<sub>2</sub> emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi, ±3.6 days century<sup>−1</sup> for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> and 5.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> depending on model structure. <br><br> We quantified the impact of uncertainties in bud-burst forecasts on simulated photosynthetic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and evapotranspiration (ET) using a process-based terrestrial biosphere model. Uncertainty in phenology model structure led to uncertainty in the description of forest seasonality, which accumulated to uncertainty in annual model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET of 9.6% and 2.9%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that a variation of ±10 days in bud-burst dates led to a variation of ±5.0% for annual GPP and about ±2.0% for ET. <br><br> For phenology models, differences among future climate scenarios (i.e. driver) represent the largest source of uncertainty, followed by uncertainties related to model structure, and finally, related to model parameterization. The uncertainties we have quantified will affect the description of the seasonality of ecosystem processes and in particular the simulation of carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, with a larger impact of uncertainties related to phenology model structure, followed by uncertainties related to phenological model parameterization

A plesiosaur containing an ichthyosaur embryo as stomach contents from the Sundance Formation of the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming

Herein we report the discovery of an ichthyosaur embryo from the Upper Member of the Sundance Formation (Oxfordian) of the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. The specimen is the first known ichthyosaur embryo from the Upper Jurassic, and is the first Jurassic ichthyosaur embryo from North America. The embryo was discovered in close association with the abdomen of an articulated partial plesiosaur skeleton, and several lines of evidence support the interpretation of the embryo as plesiosaur stomach contents. The small size and extremely poor ossification of the embryo indicate that the animal was probably not a neonate. Although the taxonomic affinities of the fossil are unknown, the large ichthyosaurian (sensu stricto) Opthalmosaurus natans is the only known ichthyosaur from the Sundance Formation, and the embryo may belong to that taxon

Ineffectiveness of colchicine for the prevention of restenosis after coronary angioplasty

AbstractColchicine, an antimitogenic agent, has shown promise in preventing restenosis after coronary angioplasty in experimental animal models. A prospective trial was conducted involving 197 patients randomized in a 2:1 fashion to treatment with oral colchicine, 0.6 mg twice daily (130 patients), or placebo (67 patients) for 6 months after elective coronary angioplasty. Treatment in all patients began between 12 h before angioplasty and 24 h after angioplasty. Compliance monitoring revealed that 96% of all prescribed pills were ingested. Demographic characteristics were similar in colchicine- and placebo-treated groups. A mean of 2.7 lesions/patient were dilated. Side effects resulted in a 6.9% dropout rate in the colchicine-treated patients.Complete quantitative angiographic follow-up was obtained in 145 patients (74%) with 393 dilated lesions. Quantitative angiographic measurements were obtained in two orthogonal views at baseline before angioplasty and immediately and at 6 months after angioplasty. The quantitative mean lumen diameter stenosis before angioplasty was 67% both in the 152 lesions in the placebo-treated group and in the 241 lesions in the colchkine-treated group; this value was reduced to 24% immediately after angio-plasty in the lesions in both treatment groups.At the 6-month angiogram, lesions had restenosed to 47% lumen diameter narrowing in the placebo-treated group compared with 46% in the colchicine-treated group (p = NS). Forty-one percent of colchicine-treated patients developed restenosis in at least one lesion compared with 45% of the placebo-treated group (p = NS). In conclusion, colchicine was ineffective for preventing restenosis after coronary angioplasty

Young people, crime and school exclusion: a case of some surprises

During the 1990s the number of young people being permanently excluded from schools in England and Wales increased dramatically from 2,910 (1990/91) to a peak of 12,700 (1996/97). Coinciding with this rise was a resurgence of the debate centring on lawless and delinquent youth. With the publication of Young People and Crime (Graham and Bowling 1995) and Misspent Youth (Audit Commission 1996) the 'common sense assumption' that exclusion from school inexorably promoted crime received wide support, with the school excludee portrayed as another latter day 'folk devil'. This article explores the link between school exclusion and juvenile crime, and offers some key findings from a research study undertaken with 56 young people who had experience of being excluded from school. Self-report interview questions reveal that whilst 40 of the young people had offended, 90% (36) reported that the onset of their offending commenced prior to their first exclusion. Moreover, 50 (89.2% of the total number of young people in the sample), stated that they were no more likely to offend subsequent to being excluded and 31 (55.4%) stated that they were less likely to offend during their exclusion period. Often, this was because on being excluded, they were 'grounded' by their parents

Mouse Cognition-Related Behavior in the Open-Field: Emergence of Places of Attraction

Spatial memory is often studied in the Morris Water Maze, where the animal's spatial orientation has been shown to be mainly shaped by distal visual cues. Cognition-related behavior has also been described along “well-trodden paths”—spatial habits established by animals in the wild and in captivity reflecting a form of spatial memory. In the present study we combine the study of Open Field behavior with the study of behavior on well-trodden paths, revealing a form of locational memory that appears to correlate with spatial memory. The tracked path of the mouse is used to examine the dynamics of visiting behavior to locations. A visit is defined as either progressing through a location or stopping there, where progressing and stopping are computationally defined. We then estimate the probability of stopping at a location as a function of the number of previous visits to that location, i.e., we measure the effect of visiting history to a location on stopping in it. This can be regarded as an estimate of the familiarity of the mouse with locations. The recently wild-derived inbred strain CZECHII shows the highest effect of visiting history on stopping, C57 inbred mice show a lower effect, and DBA mice show no effect. We employ a rarely used, bottom-to-top computational approach, starting from simple kinematics of movement and gradually building our way up until we end with (emergent) locational memory. The effect of visiting history to a location on stopping in it can be regarded as an estimate of the familiarity of the mouse with locations, implying memory of these locations. We show that the magnitude of this estimate is strain-specific, implying a genetic influence. The dynamics of this process reveal that locations along the mouse's trodden path gradually become places of attraction, where the mouse stops habitually

The gene SMART study: Method, study design, and preliminary findings

Abstract The gene SMART (genes and the Skeletal Muscle Adaptive Response to Training) Study aims to identify genetic variants that predict the response to both a single session of High-Intensity Interval Exercise (HIIE) and to four weeks of High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT). While the training and testing centre is located at Victoria University, Melbourne, three other centres have been launched at Bond University, Queensland University of Technology, Australia, and the University of Brighton, UK. Currently 39 participants have already completed the study and the overall aim is to recruit 200 moderately-trained, healthy Caucasians participants (all males 18–45 y, BMI < 30). Participants will undergo exercise testing and exercise training by an identical exercise program. Dietary habits will be assessed by questionnaire and dietitian consultation. Activity history is assessed by questionnaire and current activity level is assessed by an activity monitor. Skeletal muscle biopsies and blood samples will be collected before, immediately after and 3 h post HIIE, with the fourth resting biopsy and blood sample taken after four weeks of supervised HIIT (3 training sessions per week). Each session consists of eight to fourteen 2-min intervals performed at the pre-training lactate threshold (LT) power plus 40 to 70% of the difference between pre-training lactate threshold (LT) and peak aerobic power (Wpeak). A number of muscle and blood analyses will be performed, including (but not limited to) genotyping, mitochondrial respiration, transcriptomics, protein expression analyses, and enzyme activity. The participants serve as their own controls. Even though the gene SMART study is tightly controlled, our preliminary findings still indicate considerable individual variability in both performance (in-vivo) and muscle (in-situ) adaptations to similar training. More participants are required to allow us to better investigate potential underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms responsible for this individual variability