Comparative Judgement Modeling to Map Forced Marriage at Local Levels

Forcing someone into marriage against their will is a violation of their human rights. In 2021, the county of Nottinghamshire, UK, launched a strategy to tackle forced marriage and violence against women and girls. However, accessing information about where victims are located in the county could compromise their safety, so it is not possible to develop interventions for different areas of the county. Comparative judgement studies offer a way to map the risk of human rights abuses without collecting data that could compromise victim safety. Current methods require studies to have a large number of participants, so we develop a comparative judgement model that provides a more flexible spatial modelling structure and a mechanism to schedule comparisons more effectively. The methods reduce the data collection burden on participants and make a comparative judgement study feasible with a small number of participants. Underpinning these methods is a latent variable representation that improves on the scalability of previous comparative judgement models. We use these methods to map the risk of forced marriage across Nottinghamshire thereby supporting the county's strategy for tackling violence against women and girls.Comment: Submitted. 31 pages, 8 figure

Early diagnosis of prostate cancer in the Western Cape

Background. Early stage prostate cancer does not cause symptoms, and even metastatic disease may exist for years without causing symptoms or signs. Whereas early stage prostate cancer can be cured with radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, the prognosis of patients with locally advanced or metastatic cancer is significantly poorer.Objectives. ln view of the high incidence of advanced and therefore incurable prostate cancer seen at the oncology clinic of the Department of Urology, Tygerberg Hospital, we started a prostate clinic with the aim of detecting early stage prostate cancer which is potentially curable. A secondary objective was to investigate the question whether there is a higher incidence of prostate cancer among black African men.Patients and methods. Men aged 50 - 70 years were invited by means of media communications (newspaper and radio) to attend our prostate clinic for a free physical examination, including a digital rectal examination (DRE) and serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) assay. If the DRE was clinically suspicious of malignancy and/ or the serum PSA was > 4 ng/ ml, the patient was appropriately counselled and referred for transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided sextant prostate biopsy.Results. In the period June 1997- September 1999 a total of 1056 men attended the prostate clinic. Biopsies were indicated in 160 cases, and were obtained in 114 (71.3%, i.e. 10.8% of the entire cohort). Prostate cancer was detected on first biopsy in 3.5% of the entire group of men (in 35.9% of those with a clinically abnormal DRE, in 41.3% of those with a serum PSA > 4 ng/ ml and in 88.6% of those with an abnormal DRE and serum PSA > 4 ng/ ml. In the 37 men with prostate cancer, the clinical tumour stage was T1 - 2 in 83.8% and T3- 4 in 16.2%. ln the group of patients with clinical stage T1 - 2 tumours, the treatment was watchful waiting in 62.5% of cases, radiotherapy in 20.8% and radical prostatectomy in 16.7%. Analysis of the data according to race showed that in the group of 47 black men there was a higher percentage of clinically abnormal DRE, PSA > 4 .0 ng/ ml and biopsies showing malignancy, and a higher overall prostate cancer detection rate (8.5%).Conclusions. Our prostate cancer detection rate of 3.5% is slightly lower than that reported in larger studies (4.7%), which may be due to the fact that prostate biopsy was performed in only 71% of those who had an indication for biopsy. ln the men diagnosed with clinically localised prostate cancer, potentially curative treatment was given in only 37.5% of cases. This compares unfavourably with the historical cohort of men seen at our oncology clinic, where 53% received potentially curative treatment, and a large European study where potentially curative treatment was given in 89% of cases. Our finding that black men had a higher percentage of clinically abnormal DRE, PSA > 4.0 ng/ ml and biopsies showing malignancy and a higher overall detection rate of prostate cancer should be interpreted with caution, since black men comprised only 4.5% of our overall study cohort.

The use of representative community samples to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage competition: Alpha outcompetes Beta and wild-type in England from January to March 2021.

Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy and will be a high priority for public health for the foreseeable future. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained using a variety of methods all of which are known to contain biases. As a case study, using an approach which is largely free of biases, we here describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships of the Alpha and Beta variant in England during the first 3 months of 2021 using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the Alpha variant (first identified in Kent) becoming predominant, driven by a reproduction number 0.3 higher than for the prior wild-type. During January, positive samples were more likely to be Alpha in those aged 18 to 54 years old. Although individuals infected with the Alpha variant were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild-type, they were more likely to be antibody-positive 6 weeks after infection. Further, viral load was higher in those infected with the Alpha variant as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values. The presence of infections with non-imported Beta variant (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing. These results highlight how sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance during periods of lineage diversity

The impact of childhood vaccines on bacterial carriage in the nasopharynx: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that childhood vaccines have effects that extend beyond their target disease. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of routine childhood vaccines on bacterial carriage in the nasopharynx. METHODS: A cohort of children from rural Gambia was recruited at birth and followed up for one year. Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken immediately after birth, every two weeks for the first six months and then every other month. The presence of bacteria in the nasopharynx (Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus) was compared before and after the administration of DTP-Hib-HepB and measles-yellow fever vaccines. RESULTS: A total of 1,779 nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 136 children for whom vaccination data were available. The prevalence of bacterial carriage was high: 82.2% S. pneumoniae, 30.6%, S.aureus, 27.8% H. influenzae. Carriage of H. influenzae (OR = 0.36; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.99) and S. pneumoniae (OR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.90) were significantly reduced after measles-yellow fever vaccination; while DTP-Hib-HepB had no effect on bacterial carriage. CONCLUSIONS: Nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage is unaffected by DTP-Hib-HepB vaccination and reduced after measles-yellow fever vaccination

Belief formation in a signaling game without common prior: an experiment

Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the process of belief formation and evolution in a signaling game in which a common prior is not induced. Both prior and posterior beliefs of Receivers about Senders' types are elicited, as well as beliefs of Senders about Receivers' strategies. In the experiment, subjects often start with diffuse uniform beliefs and update them in view of observations. However, the speed of updating is influenced by the strength of initial beliefs. An interesting result is that beliefs about the prior distribution of types are updated slower than posterior beliefs, which incorporate Senders' strategies. In the medium run, for some specifications of game parameters, this leads to outcomes being significantly different from the outcomes of the game in which a common prior is induced. It is also shown that elicitation of beliefs does not considerably change the pattern of play in this game

The stigma of mental illness in Southern Ghana: attitudes of the urban population and patients’ views

PURPOSE: Stigma is a frequent accompaniment of mental illness leading to a number of detrimental consequences. Most research into the stigma connected to mental illness was conducted in the developed world. So far, few data exist on countries in sub-Saharan Africa and no data have been published on population attitudes towards mental illness in Ghana. Even less is known about the stigma actually perceived by the mentally ill persons themselves. METHOD: A convenience sample of 403 participants (210 men, mean age 32.4 ± 12.3 years) from urban regions in Accra, Cape Coast and Pantang filled in the Community Attitudes towards the Mentally Ill (CAMI) questionnaire. In addition, 105 patients (75 men, mean age 35.9 ± 11.0 years) of Ghana's three psychiatric hospitals (Accra Psychiatry Hospital, Ankaful Hospital, Pantang Hospital) answered the Perceived Stigma and Discrimination Scale. RESULTS: High levels of stigma prevailed in the population as shown by high proportions of assent to items expressing authoritarian and socially restrictive views, coexisting with agreement with more benevolent attitudes. A higher level of education was associated with more positive attitudes on all subscales (Authoritarianism, Social Restrictiveness, Benevolence and Acceptance of Community Based Mental Health Services). The patients reported a high degree of experienced stigma with secrecy concerning the illness as a widespread coping strategy. Perceived stigma was not associated with sex or age. DISCUSSION: The extent of stigmatising attitudes within the urban population of Southern Ghana is in line with the scant research in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and mirrored by the experienced stigma reported by the patients. These results have to be seen in the context of the extreme scarcity of resources within the Ghanaian psychiatric system. Anti-stigma efforts should include interventions for mentally ill persons themselves and not exclusively focus on public attitudes

Inequitable childhood immunization uptake in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis of individual and contextual determinants

Background: Immunization coverage in many parts of Nigeria is far from optimal, and far from equitable. Nigeria accounts for half of the deaths from Measles in Africa, the highest prevalence of circulating wild poliovirus in the world, and the country is among the ten countries in the world with vaccine coverage below 50 percent. Studies focusing on community-level determinants therefore have serious policy implications Methods: Multilevel multivariable regression analysis was used on a nationally-representative sample of women aged 15-49 years from the 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Multilevel regression analysis was performed with children (level 1) nested within mothers (level 2), who were in turn nested within communities (level 3). Results: Results show that the pattern of full immunization clusters within families and communities, and that socio-economic characteristics are important in explaining the differentials in full immunization among the children in the study. At the individual level, ethnicity, mothers' occupation, and mothers' household wealth were characteristics of the mothers associated with full immunization of the children. At the community level, the proportion of mothers that had hospital delivery was a determinant of full immunization status. Conclusion: Significant community-level variation remaining after having controlled for child- and mother-level characteristics is indicative of a need for further research on community-levels factors, which would enable extensive tailoring of community-level interventions aimed at improving full immunization and other child health outcomes