Az Å‘szi árpa terméskockázatának növekedése és lehetséges okai

Az éghajlatváltozás folyamata már elkezdÅ‘dött, ezért a magyar agrárkutatóknak és szakembereknek is jól működÅ‘ leíró-elÅ‘rejelzÅ‘ rendszereket szükséges alkotniuk. Munkánk célja a hozamok elemzése, az idÅ‘beni változások megfigyelése volt 1951-tÅ‘l napjainkig. Az árpa termésmennyiségi adatait a trendhatások kiszűrésével összehasonlíthatóvá tettük. A vizsgálat helyszíne Hajdú-Bihar megye volt. Az ún. E,V hatásossági kritérium alapján vizsgáltuk az árpa terméskockázatának alakulását az 1951-90-es idÅ‘szakban, továbbá azóta. A kimutatott terméskockázat-növekedés azt a nézetet támasztja alá, hogy az éghajlat „láthatóan†változik, aminek jeleivel szinte naponta találkozunk. Megfigyelt meteorológiai változókból olyan indikátorokat ké¬pezhetünk, amelyek vélhetÅ‘en döntÅ‘en befolyásolják az egyes növények fejlÅ‘dését. A bizonytalanság növekedésének okait keresve, egyik elsÅ‘ lépésként, klímaváltozási szcenáriókra megvizsgáltunk egy csapadékra megfogalmazott éghajlat-változási in¬dexet, amely az extrém mennyiségekre, a gyakoriságukra és az elÅ‘fordulásukhoz köt¬hetÅ‘ napok számára vonatkozik. ----------------------------------------- Climate change is a currently ongoing process, which requires Hungarian agricultural researchers and professionals to create functioning descriptive and forecasting systems. This paper covers the analysis of crop volume and changes over time from 1951 to the current days. We filtered out trend effects to make crop volume data for barley comparable. The study was done on Hajdú-Bihar county. Changes in the crop risk of the barley in the 1951-1990 period and later was assessed using the so-called E,V effectiveness parameter. The increase found in crop risk supports the view that climate is ‘visibly’ changing – the signs of which are seen nearly every day. The monitored meteorological variables can be used to construct indicators, which are assumed to have a decisive impact on the growth of individual plant species. In an attempt to find out what caused crop risk to increase, a climate change index built for precipitation – extreme quantities, frequency and number of days when it occurs – was tested for climate change scenarios.éghajlatváltozás, kockázat, termésmennyiség, Å‘szi árpa, climate change, risk, crop volume, autumn barley, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,

Deconstructing the discourse of divisions: mental boundaries in the divided city of Vukovar

This paper seeks to answer to what extent the city of Vukovar is divided and in which way this division is geographically imagined and embedded in everyday life. Since each case of divided cities is driven by different factors and consists of different manifestations, case study design is the most appropriate one for researching micro-divisions in this post-conflict area. The case study of Vukovar is interesting because war legacy influenced new local policies and politics; open border issues affect bilateral relations on State level; and micro-regional frictions show deep identity-based divisions. Regardless of the lack of physical obstacles in the urban structure of the city, the research presents multilevel divisions that are visible in a form of imagined boundaries. Although Vukovar is an ethnically divided city we presume that division(s) lacks any strong geographical (or territorial) aspect. That is why the method of mental mapping on a random based sample of local population is used to compare imagined divisions in everyday life with administrative, ethnical and political ones.Cette étude vise à établir dans quelle mesure la ville de Vukovar est divisée et comment cette division est représentée d’un point de vue géographique et intégrée dans la vie quotidienne. Les études de cas s’avèrent la méthode la plus appropriée pour étudier les micro-divisions présentes dans cette zone post-conflit. Le cas de Vukovar est particulièrement intéressant dans la mesure où l’héritage de la guerre a pesé sur les politiques mises en œuvre, mais aussi parce que les questions de frontières ouvertes affectent les relations bilatérales au niveau de l’Etat et que les frictions à l’échelle micro-régionale recèlent de profondes divisions basées sur l’identité. Nonobstant l’absence d’obstacles physiques dans la structure urbaine de Vukovar, notre recherche montre des divisions à différents niveaux, sous la forme de frontières mentales. En dépit de la division de la ville en termes d’ethnicité, la (les) division(s) ne présente(nt) pas d’aspect géographique (ou territorial) très marqué. C’est pourquoi la cartographie mentale est utilisée ici sur un échantillon aléatoire de la population locale afin de mettre en parallèle les divisions fantasmées dans la vie quotidienne et les divisions administratives, ethniques et politiques

Procedures for Reliability Assessment of Existing Bridges

Budući da su mnogi mostovi u svijetu davno izgrađeni, a iz društvenih i ekonomskih razloga potrebno ih je i dalje upotrebljavati, nužno je provesti ocjenjivanje njihove pouzdanosti. U radu su opisana najnovija istraživanja u svezi s tom danas vrlo aktualnom problematikom. Predložene napredne proračunske metode za ocjenjivanje postojećih mostova u više koraka utemeljene su na probabilističkoj teoriji pouzdanosti, a razmatraju se karakteristična ispitivanja materijala, ocjene stanja i zalihe nosivosti konstrukcijskog sustava i stvarna prometna opterećenja. Dan je pregled inozemnih normi i napravljena njihova usporedba.Many bridges in the world have been built a long time ago and, because of social and economic needs for their continued use, it is necessary to assess their reliability. An overview of recent studies of these now highly topical issues is presented in the paper. Proposed advanced multi-level methods for assessment of existing bridges are based on the probabilistic theory of reliability, and involve typical material testing, assessment of condition and redundancy of structural systems, and study of actual traffic load. A review of foreign codes with their comparison is presented

A study of aerodynamic noise in air duct systems with turning vanes

Buka je jedan od problema u mnogim industrijama. U ovom radu prikazana je analiza aerodinamički nastale buke koja se javlja pri strujanjima vazduha preko usmerivača vazduha oblika aeroprofila u vazdušnim kanalima. Na osnovu Proudmanove jednačine i Lajthilove akustične analogije širokopojasni nivo buke u vazdušnom kanalu može biti izračunat. Za modeliranje turbulentnog modela, k - e turbulentni model je korišćen a potrebne konstante su eksperimentalno određene merenjem u aerotunelu za podzvučne brzine, nakon kojih su vršena merenja buke za u neposrednoj blizini usmerivača vazduha oblika aeroprofila. Nekoliko rešenja je analizirano, kanal sa unutrašnjim aeroprofilom, kanal sa centralnim aeroprofilom, kanal sa spoljašnjim aeroprofilom kao i kombinacija prethodnih slučajeva. Analizom dobijenih rezultata, a u cilju ispunjavanja svih zakonskih propisa koji se tiču industrijske buke, koji postaju sve striktniji, akustična analiza i projektovanje moraju biti primenjeni u većini industrijskih sistema jer buka predstavlja opasnost po zdravlje radnika u radnom okruženju.Noise is becoming one of the problems in many industrial applications. In this paper the aerodynamic noise in air duct system that arises from air flow passing over a surface of turning vanes is investigated. Based on Proudman's formula using Lighthill's acoustic analogy broadband acoustic noise model can be predicted. To model the turbulent flow in an air duct k - e turbulent model is used and required constants are obtained experimentally in a low speed wind tunnel followed by noise measurement in the vicinity of deflected airfoil. Several designs are investigated: Inner airfoil in the duct elbow, center positioned air foil, outer positioned and the overall combination of all previous cases. It was found that in order to satisfy all noise requirements and regulation, which are becoming more strict nowadays, the acoustic analysis and design must be performed in most industrial systems since the noise levels arising from the operating industrial equipment may represent occupational and health hazard

A study of aerodynamic noise in air duct systems with turning vanes

Buka je jedan od problema u mnogim industrijama. U ovom radu prikazana je analiza aerodinamički nastale buke koja se javlja pri strujanjima vazduha preko usmerivača vazduha oblika aeroprofila u vazdušnim kanalima. Na osnovu Proudmanove jednačine i Lajthilove akustične analogije širokopojasni nivo buke u vazdušnom kanalu može biti izračunat. Za modeliranje turbulentnog modela, k - e turbulentni model je korišćen a potrebne konstante su eksperimentalno određene merenjem u aerotunelu za podzvučne brzine, nakon kojih su vršena merenja buke za u neposrednoj blizini usmerivača vazduha oblika aeroprofila. Nekoliko rešenja je analizirano, kanal sa unutrašnjim aeroprofilom, kanal sa centralnim aeroprofilom, kanal sa spoljašnjim aeroprofilom kao i kombinacija prethodnih slučajeva. Analizom dobijenih rezultata, a u cilju ispunjavanja svih zakonskih propisa koji se tiču industrijske buke, koji postaju sve striktniji, akustična analiza i projektovanje moraju biti primenjeni u većini industrijskih sistema jer buka predstavlja opasnost po zdravlje radnika u radnom okruženju.Noise is becoming one of the problems in many industrial applications. In this paper the aerodynamic noise in air duct system that arises from air flow passing over a surface of turning vanes is investigated. Based on Proudman's formula using Lighthill's acoustic analogy broadband acoustic noise model can be predicted. To model the turbulent flow in an air duct k - e turbulent model is used and required constants are obtained experimentally in a low speed wind tunnel followed by noise measurement in the vicinity of deflected airfoil. Several designs are investigated: Inner airfoil in the duct elbow, center positioned air foil, outer positioned and the overall combination of all previous cases. It was found that in order to satisfy all noise requirements and regulation, which are becoming more strict nowadays, the acoustic analysis and design must be performed in most industrial systems since the noise levels arising from the operating industrial equipment may represent occupational and health hazard

Seismic risk for Croatia: overview of research activities and present assessments with guidelines for the future

Iz pozicije glavnog izvršitelja za procjene rizika od potresa za Hrvatsku, napravljen je pregled brojnih i metodološki različitih procjena rizika, uključujući nepovezane pojedinačne inicijative. Cilj rada je pozicionirati i osvrnuti se na doprinose svake od procjena, ali i upozoriti na manjkavosti odnosno ograničenja. Opisana je i uobičajena metodologija analizirajući svaki od faktora seizmičkog rizika, dajući pregled sadašnjeg stanja istraživanja u Hrvatskoj i u svijetu te nudeći smjernice za daljnje strateško djelovanje jer svi postojeći rezultati ističu potres kao neprihvatljiv rizik za Hrvatsku.An overview of numerous methodologically different risk assessments, including sporadic individual initiatives, is presented from the perspective of a leading expert for earthquake risk assessments for Croatia. The aim of the paper is to evaluate and discuss contributions of each of the assessments, but also to caution about their deficiencies i.e. limitations. A common methodology for estimating seismic risk is described by analysing each of its factors, by providing an overview of current research in Croatia and worldwide, and by offering guidelines for further strategic actions, as all existing results reveal that earthquake is an unacceptable risk for Croatia

Functioning of the Family System With an Autistic Child: A Comparative Study Between Poland and California, USA

Objectives of the research: The aims of this research are to conduct a comparison study between the level of communication and flexibility in families with autistic children in two different geographical locations and cultural contexts – California (USA) and Poland (Europe) – to address whether the level of these two dimensions of family functioning are related to the ego-resiliency of the parents, and additionally to discuss the practical implications that can be drawn from the results. Research methods: Communication and flexibility profiles in family functioning were collected in Poland and California from September 2016 to February 2018. Data on the similarities and differences between parents of children with autism spectrum disorder in Poland (n=111) and California (n=105) was collected using Olson’s FACES-IV. The Ego-Resiliency Scale was also administered in methodologically standardized conditions and was empirically analyzed along with controlled demographic variables. A short description of the context of the issue: Family functioning and ego-resiliency in families with children with autism are analyzed in this research. The richness of interactions and connections within the family system suggests that when explaining the relationships within the family system, the interpretation that is based on linear causality is abandoned and replaced by circular causality, which is the model of analysis utilized in this research project. The main goals of this research were to compare and contrast family functioning in two geographical locations and cultural contexts and to show statistically significant differences between these two groups, in order to better understand cultural variations and differences that may affect family functioning and ego-resiliency and to provide the different groups with adequate, necessary support services. Research findings: The results revealed statistically significant differences in various dimensions of Family Communication and Flexibility between families of autistic children in California and Poland. With respect to both variables, higher scores were found in the California group. The flexibility results in both groups were defined as flexible. However, in regards to family communication, the result of the California group corresponded to higher standardized scores, whereas those of the group from Poland revealed moderate standardized scores. Conclusions and recommendations: Statistically significant positive correlations were found in the variables of Flexibility and Family Communication between Poland and California. The results of this research are critical, not only from the perspective of scientific development (as similar studies have not been conducted), but also for therapeutic and preventive reasons. They suggest concentrating on preventive activities and aspects that are important for the well-being of the parent as a person, as well as the entire family system, especially the dimensions of communication in families with children with autism spectrum disorder and the ego-resiliency of the parents. However, further research is needed to specifically identify the differences between the groups based on various demographic variables. Additionally, it is important to develop a practical model to support families with autistic children and to address family satisfaction in intervention strategies, as well as to consider the importance of support groups that may improve satisfaction and ego-resiliency within the family system

Reportaže studenata sveučilišta u kansasu o američko-hrvatskim umjetnicima iz Kansas Cityja (1)

KU students of Croatian, under the supervision of their instructor, Marta Pirnat-Greenberg, interview artist Marijana Grisnik, a painter in the Croatian naive style living in Strawberry Hill, Kansas City. This is the first of a series on Croatian artists on Strawberry Hill. The second is located at http://hdl.handle.net/1808/10171Department of Slavic Languages and Literatures, University of Kansa

New classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus correlate with disease activity

Aim: To determine the prevalence of American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) classification criteria among systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients; to determine disease activity and severity; and to investigate the correlation of classification criteria with disease activity, and of disease activity and damage index with disease duration. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study on 110 SLE patients from the Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University Hospital Centre Rijeka, Croatia in the period from September to December 2013 and determined disease duration and the total number of ACR and SLICC classification criteria. Disease activity was assessed by Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) index and organ damage by Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR) damage index. Results: The number of SLICC classification criteria met per patient was significantly higher than the number of ACR criteria (7 [IQR 6-8] vs 5 [IQR 4-6], P<0.001). Moderate correlations were detected between the number of SLICC classification criteria and disease activity index, both in case of active (r=0.48, P=0.003) and inactive disease (r=0.43, P<0.001). We neither found a correlation between the number of ACR criteria and disease activity nor between disease activity and disease duration. However, there was a good correlation between SLICC/ACR damage index and disease duration (r=0.63, P<0.001). Conclusion: New SLICC classification criteria correlate with disease activity because they capture more manifestations also included in the SLEDAI index. Patients with longer disease duration had a larger damage index score

Reportaže studenata sveučilišta u Kansasu o američko-hrvatskim umjetnicima iz Kansas Cityja (2)

Students of Croatian working under the supervision of their instructor, Marta Pirnat-Greenberg, interviewed and wrote an article on the Croatian-American photographer Don Wolf, a native of Strawberry Hill, Kansas City, Kansas. This is the second in a series on Croatian artists on Strawberry Hill (the first, on Marijana Grisnik, is located at http://hdl.handle.net/1808/10170).Department of Slavic Languages & Literature