Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas.

Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curves. A Bayesian inference analysis was proposed along with a probabilistic approach for the parameters estimating. The analysis demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is very effective considering that the available databases are usually short

Radiology Associates Medical Scan Forecasting

After discontinuing their subscription with Shinyapps and relying on a manual forecasting process, Radiology Associates needs a new method to forecast the number and types of scans that will be executed at each site location. Radiology Associates utilizes Quinsite, which incorporates a live link to their database, as a host for all their Tableau dashboards. This project will create an accurate forecasting model utilizing complex forecasting methods to be hosted by Quinsite which is accessible by all management within Radiology Associates. To begin this process, an exponential smoothing model was created in Tableau to solidify dashboard and storyboard design. Additionally, ARIMA and SARIMAX models were built using TabPy and RServe. Using a MASE score each forecasting method was tested. Using the MASE score and feedback from Radiology Associates during a mock forecasting meeting, exponential smoothing was selected as the most accurate to be in the final design. With the final forecasting method selected the dashboard went through several rounds of slight alterations based on feedback from project stakeholders before being officially handed over to Radiology Associates

Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Water Demand Modeling

The actual level of water demand is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics in water distribution systems. Consequently, it is crucial to estimate it as accurately as possible in order to result in reliable simulation models. In this paper, a copula-based multivariate analysis has been proposed and used for demand prediction for given return period. The analysis is applied to water consumption data collected in the water distribution network of Palermo (Italy). The approach showed to produce consisted demand patterns and to be a powerful tool to be coupled with water distribution network models for design or analysis problems. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd

Correlation between parodontal indexes and orthodontic retainers: prospective study in a group of 16 patients

Purpose. Fixed retainers are used to stabilize dental elements after orthodontic treatment. Being it a permanent treatment, it is necessary to instruct patients about a constant and continuous monitoring of their periodontal conditions and a correct oral hygiene. The aim of this study was to highlight the possible adverse effects of bonded retainers on parameters correlated to the health conditions of periodontal tissues. Materials and methods. We selected 16 patients, under treatment in the Orthodontics Department of University of Bari Dental School, who had undergone a lingual retainer insertion at the end of the orthodontic treatment. The patients were then divided into two groups (Control Group and Study Group) and monitored for 3 and 36 months, respectively. The following indexes were taken into consideration: gingival index (GI), plaque index (PI) and the presence of calculus (Calculus Index, CI), the probing depth and the presence of gingival recession on the six inferior frontal dental elements. Results. After the observation was carried out, any of the patients showed periodontal sockets and gingival recession. In the Study Group, only 1 patient had a PI score=3, the 7 left had scores between 0.66 and 2.83. In the Control Group, one patient had score=0, the other ones showed values between 0.5 and 1.66. The mean GI in the Study Group peaked at a score of 2.83, the minimum was 0.66; whereas in the Control Group the maximum value was 2 and the minimum 0.66. The CI in the Group Study was between 1 and 2. In the Control Group it was absent in only 1 patient, whereas in the remaining 7, it had a value between 0.3 and 1. The clinical data were studied by means of the Wilcoxon test. We found a statistically significant difference for what concerns the Plaque Indexes (PI) (P>0.05) and Calculus Indexes (CI) (P>0.1) in both groups, with higher scores in the Study Group, having retainers for 36 months. Any statistically significant difference was calculated for the GI. Conclusions. We can therefore conclude that patients with lingual retainers need periodontal hygiene and treatment as to prevent, in the course of time, periodontal damages non-detectable in short-term

Improvements in BepiColombo and JUICE radio science experiments with a multi-station tracking configuration for the reduction of Doppler noise

Radio science experiments for planetary geodesy mostly rely on measurements of the Doppler shift of microwave signals sent to a spacecraft by an Earth station, and retransmitted back coherently in phase to the same antenna (two-way link). The retransmitted signal can also be received by a different station in a listen-only configuration (three-way link). In state-of-the-art tracking systems, such as the ones will be used on the future ESA's missions JUICE and BepiColombo, the Doppler error budget is dominated by local noise sources arising at the ground-station, in particular tropospheric scintillation and unmodeled motions of the antenna's structure. In this work, a novel technique aimed at reducing these disturbances is analyzed, with particular emphasis on its benefits to BepiColombo's and JUICE's radio science experiments. The method, referred to as Time-Delay Mechanical-noise Cancellation (TDMC), relies on simultaneous two-way and three-way spacecraft tracking, the latter employing a stiffer listen-only antenna with better mechanical stability and located in a favorable dry region more immune to tropospheric noise. In fact, a proper linear combination of time-shifted observables from the two-way and three-way links can replace local noises of the two-way ground-station with those coming from the listen-only antenna, translating into increased accuracy of the final measurements, while preserving the original Doppler content. We show the results of covariance analyses performed with a multi-arc weighted least square estimator for the entire BepiColombo's Hermean phase and JUICE's flybys of Callisto. We compare the two solutions obtained with and without the application of the TDMC technique. For BepiColombo and JUICE radio science experiments, the two-way links are baselined from the 35-m DSA-3 (Malargüe, Argentina) and the 34-m DSS 25 (Goldstone, California). For the three-way link, we select the 12-m Large Latin American Millimeter Array (LLAMA) antenna for three reasons: 1) its mechanical rigidity with respect to large beam-waveguide antennas, 2) its unique position in the extremely dry Puna de Atacama desert, that assures low tropospheric noise, and 3) its limited longitudinal separation from the two other ground-stations, granting sufficient common visibility time to perform the requested combination of the observables. Besides its noise-reduction effect, enabling unprecedented levels of accuracy on Doppler measurements, TDMC provides also a back-up for unique events: a crucial satellite flyby or a specific passage over a site of particular geophysical interest. Indeed, measurements become virtually independent of unfavorable meteorological conditions at the transmitting station

Contaminant Intrusion through Leaks in Water Distribution System: Experimental Analysis

This paper presents the results of experimental tests on the intrusion of contaminant through pipe cracks in water distribution network resulting from low/negative pressures. The tests were carried out on a looped distribution network at the University of Enna and were performed first producing a pressure transient that causes negative pressures then reproducing intermittent supply. A soluble contaminant was added to the water volume in the network through a pipe crack. Sampling of water volume was carried out in two nodes of the network and the contaminant concentrations were measured. It was showed that: the contaminant was drawn in and transported, in the first set of tests; the contaminant was carried through the network to the point-of-use when the pipes become completely full and the distribution system was in steady state conditions, in the second, and that the concentrations was higher than in the first set of test

Decentralized Triangular Guidance Algorithms for Formations of UAVs

This paper deals with the design of a guidance control system for a swarm of unmanned aerial systems flying at a given altitude, addressing flight formation requirements that can be formulated constraining the swarm to be on the nodes of a triangular mesh. Three decentralized guidance algorithms are presented. A classical fixed leader–follower scheme is compared with two alternative schemes: the former is based on the self-identification of one or more time-varying leaders; the latter is an algorithm without leaders. Several operational scenarios have been simulated involving swarms with obstacles and an increasing number of aircraft in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed guidance schem

WIN55,212-2-induced expression of Mir-29b1 favours the suppression of osteosarcoma cell migration in a SPARC-independent manner

WIN55,212-2 (WIN) is a synthetic agonist of cannabinoid receptors that displays promising antitumour properties. The aim of this study is to demonstrate that WIN is able to block the migratory ability of osteosarcoma cells and characterize the mechanisms involved. Using wound healing assay and zymography, we showed that WIN affects cell migration and reduces the activity of the metalloproteases MMP2 and MMP9. This effect seemed to be independent of secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC), a matricellular protein involved in tissue remodeling and extracellular matrix deposition. SPARC release was indeed prevented by WIN, and SPARC silencing by RNA interference did not influence the effect of the cannabinoid on cell migration. WIN also increased the release of extracellular vesicles and dramatically upregulated miR-29b1, a key miRNA that modulates cell proliferation and migration. Interestingly, reduced cell migration was observed in stably miR-29b1-transfected cells, similarly to WIN-treated cells. Finally, we show the absence of SPARC in the extracellular vesicles released by osteosarcoma cells and no changes in SPARC level in miR-29b1 overexpressing cells. Overall, these findings suggest that WIN markedly affects cell migration, dependently on miR-29b1 and independently of SPARC, and can thus be considered as a potential innovative therapeutic agent in the treatment of osteosarcoma

Modeling and control of a modular iron bird

This paper describes the control architecture and the control laws of a new concept of Modular Iron Bird aimed at reproducing flight loads to test mobile aerodynamic control surface actuators for small and medium size aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. The iron bird control system must guarantee the actuation of counteracting forces. On one side, a hydraulic actuator simulates the hinge moments acting on the mobile surface due to aerodynamic and inertial effects during flight; on the other side, the actuator to be tested applies an active hinge moment to control the angular position of the same surface. Reference aerodynamic and inertial loads are generated by a flight simulation module to reproduce more realistic conditions arising during operations. The design of the control action is based on a dynamic model of the hydraulic plant used to generate loads. This system is controlled using a Proportional Integral Derivative control algorithm tuned with an optimization algorithm taking into account the closed loop dynamics of the actuator under testing, uncertainties and disturbances in the controlled plant. Numerical simulations are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed architecture and control laws

Definition of Water Meter Substitution Plans based on a Composite Indicator

This paper presents a water meter substitution plan based on a composite "Replacement indicator" which was defined and compared with common substitution strategies based on meter age and on run-to-fail approaches. The methodology was applied to one of the 17 sub-networks in which the Palermo city water distribution network (Italy) is divided. The analysis was carried out considering a substitution budget limitation and the results showed that the use of "Replacement indicator" outperform the classical substitution strategies based on meter age because it takes into account some other variables that may affect meter precision and wearing. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd