Fissionable consensus: Scandinavia and the US quest for atomic energy control, 1946-1950

Between 1946 and 1950 the UN worked on a plan for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. The plan would put strong limitations to and control over independent states abilities to develop nuclear energy and weapons. This plan gained support from many western states. Olav Njøstad raises the question of why they supported the plan, by using the Scandinavian countries as examples

In search of superiority: US nuclear policy in the Cold War

What role did the strategic nuclear weapons have in US policy towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War? This study argues that even though US nuclear policy was defensive in nature - its chief objective being to deter Soviet aggression - it nevertheless represented a deliberate and almost permanent quest for strategic superiority. More than anything, this paradoxical situation resulted from two factors: the steady growth in Soviet strategic capabilities, and the firm belief among US decisionmakers that, given the "delicacy" of the balance of terror, even marginal advantages were crucial for maintaining the peace

Procured reliability? Effects of competitive tendering processes on critical service reliability.

PhD thesis in Risk management and societal safetyThis PhD thesis focuses on how the competitive tendering of publicly procured critical services affects the reliability of these services. Maintaining the supply of critical services, i.e., services that are essential for ensuring the basic needs of the population, is a core aspect of societal safety. The thesis draws upon theories from organizational reliability literature and seeks to contribute toward the further development of this field. Initial studies of high reliability organizations (HROs) have identified organizational characteristics that are decisive, though not necessarily sufficient, for the safe and reliable provision of services by complex organizations in hazardous industries. Later organizational reliability research on critical infrastructure services has demonstrated that the restructuring of these services, involving a splitting of service provision between organizations and the introduction of new logics to service supply, has added to the complexity and challenges of reliable critical service provision. However, given that few studies have focused on the reliability of procured critical services, the effects of tendering processes on reliability remain to be further researched. The thesis answers the following research question: How can competitive tendering processes affect the reliability of publicly procured critical services? In addressing this issue, the thesis aims to contribute new knowledge on how procurement and tendering processes affect organizational reliability. It additionally aims to contribute new knowledge on the relationship between reliable service deliveries (referred to as output reliability in the thesis) and organizational reliability (meaning the organizational structures and processes that enable this delivery). Finally, the thesis aims to explore whether specific governance forms can contribute to maintaining the reliability of publicly procured critical services. This work draws on empirical material from air ambulance service procurement in Norway, where air ambulance transport is procured from commercial and non-profit operators by a national health trust. In the thesis, empirical findings from the most recent rotor-wing (helicopter) and fixed-wing (aircraft) tendering processes are discussed. Overall, the rotor-wing ambulance procurement resulted in a successful transfer of responsibilities between the outgoing and incoming service suppliers. By comparison, the fixed-wing ambulance procurement led to profound conflicts and negative effects on service deliveries. The thesis consists of five articles, which all contribute towards answering the research question. Article I is a review of literature relevant for researching the effects of tendering on the resilience and reliability of critical services. The article explores how safety science has traditionally focused on individual organizations and discusses that interorganizational service provision can introduce interface challenges to critical service delivery. Article II analyses empirical material from the fixed-wing ambulance procurement. The article establishes that tendering processes involve a ‘temporal fragmentation’ of critical service supply: service delivery is split into contract periods with potentially different contracted service suppliers. The article demonstrates that organizational factors related to the tendering process can affect output reliability negatively during the transition from one contract period to another, as well as in the immediate aftermath. Article III broadens the analysis of the indicator used to assess output reliability in Article II and in this thesis. Approaching this indicator as a “boundary object”, the article shows how the seemingly neutral indicator used by the procurer to monitor operator output is subject to interpretation, with actors attaching different meanings to it. Moreover, the procurer’s indicator assessment is dynamic, reflecting both operator responses to the indicator and the external attention towards the indicator during the conflicted fixed-wing ambulance tendering process. Article IV discusses effects of the procurement cycle on the continuous change processes known from previous research to enhance reliability. The article complements organizational reliability literature with theories on temporality from the organizational research field. The article discusses how procurement cycles frame the timing and tempo of change processes. It demonstrates that the procurer acts as a “macro pacer”, deciding the timing and speed of processes while simultaneously being restricted by procurement legislation. For service suppliers, the tendering processes can demand substantial organizational attention and cause instability, at the expense of quality development processes. Article V discusses the contributions and limitations of relational governance towards the reliability of procured critical services. Relational governance, complementing the contractual governance that characterizes public procurement, involves a holistic approach to the procurer-supplier relation, thus encouraging flexibility and joint problem solving. In this sense, it resembles the reliability-enhancing approaches of HROs and high reliability networks (HRNs). In the article, relational governance is shown to be crucial in making the implementation of new contracts work. At the same time, the article identifies that in situations of profound conflict, neither contractual nor relational governance are necessarily sufficient to ensure reliability. Overall, the thesis discusses that tendering processes can have several negative implications for critical service reliability. The fixed-wing ambulance procurement exemplifies that tendering processes can result in instability and conflicts, undermining conditions that are known from HRO research to enhance reliability. Procurement can also introduce new organizational interfaces between incoming and outgoing service suppliers. Unlike organizations in previously studied HRNs, these suppliers do not necessarily share a goal of continuous service supply. On the contrary, the fixed-wing ambulance procurement exemplifies that conflict between suppliers and between procurer and supplier can affect output reliability negatively. Not all effects of procurement are reflected in indicators of service output; tendering processes can also influence the quality developments that are important for critical service supply outcomes. On the one hand, procurement enables a thorough evaluation of the existing service and the introduction of systemic changes for each new contract period. At the same time, procurement legislation frames how continuous quality developments can take place, by defining limits to the introduction of changes in existing contracts. Moreover, tender participation can demand substantial organizational attention from tenderers and contracted suppliers and draw attention away from continuous change processes known to enhance reliability. To achieve reliable service provision, the procurer can draw upon both contractual and relational governance. Governance options are however framed by procurement legislation and by procurer interpretations of this legislation. While relational governance, by encouraging flexibility and give-and-take attitudes, contributes towards reliability, the procurer must ensure that this flexibility does not come at the expense of stability. Also, if profound conflicts exist between the procurer and supplier, neither contractual nor relational governance may be sufficient to resolve these

The nature and causes of the Norwegian interbank offered rate

The importance of interbank rates for unsecured funding has increased vastly the last decades with the expansion of nancial instruments. Today's interbank rates are arguably the most in uential benchmarks in pricing of assets and an important indicator on the state an economy. In the aftermath of the nancial crisis, the awareness of weaknesses of interbank rates surfaced. The awareness has led to a tightening of the regulations regarding the Norwegian Interbank O ered Rate (NIBOR). The purpose of this paper is to identify the nature of NIBOR in both a domestic and international context, and expand on NIBOR's ability to accurately re ect the lending cost between Norwegian prime banks. The rst part of the paper uses the Nelson-Siegel and Vasicek models to compare o ered rates against observable nancing cost using unsecured corporate bonds. NIBOR has historically been quoted higher than both STIBOR and EURIBOR, and we nd that Norwegian banks contributing to NIBOR and STIBOR face the same nancing costs as European banks contributing to EURIBOR. This implies that the di erences between interbank rates cannot be justi ed by higher nancing costs. When comparing the interbank rates to domestic nancing costs, we are unable to determine if banks contributing to NIBOR are more or less accurate in the Norwegian interbank market compared to other interbank markets where these banks are present. In the second part of the paper, we compare individual interest rate quotes to credit default swaps, and observe an inconsistent relationship between panel banks' quotes and their market priced risk over time. By applying a hidden markov model, we examine individual short term behavioral dynamics during the opening of the day, and preceding the xing. Our results indicate that interpretation of information varies across participants, which is a possible weakness of the governance structure.nhhma

Cuba-krisen 1962

Cuba-krisen i oktober 1962 vil med sannsynlighet bli stående som den mest dramatiske enkeltstående hendelse under den kalde krigen, i hvert fall om vi bruker faren for en kjernefysisk storkrig mellom Øst og Vest som målestokk. De tretten dagene i Oktober 1962 rommet på sett og vis hele den kalde krigens konfliktstoff i fortettet form. Det er derfor ingen tilfeldighet at Cuba-krisen fortsatt er gjenstand for stor oppmerksomhet blant forskere med interesse for utenriks-politiske og militær-strategiske spørsmål. Denne studien redegjør for det vell av ny viten som i de siste år er fremkommet fra amerikanske, russiske og kubanske kilder om Cuba-krisens bakgrunn, forløp og løsning. Bildet som avtegner seg er at krisen var farligere enn det i ettertid har vært populært å tro. Samtidig var de to statslederne mer kompromissvillige og den politiske og militære beslutningsprosessen på begge sider preget av større rasjonalitet enn mange etterpåkloke kritikere har hevdet

Grubletegninger

Tema for denne masteroppgaven er bruk av grubletegninger, et undervisningsverktøy som omhandler et naturfaglig fenomen og flere personer i dialog som ytrer hver sin påstand om fenomenet. Flere av påstandene tar utgangspunkt i typiske feilaktige oppfatninger elever kan ha om fenomenet, i tillegg er de naturvitenskapelige aksepterte forklaringene inkludert. Den overordnede problemstillingen for denne oppgaven er: Hva kjennetegner elevers arbeid med grubletegninger? For å svare på problemstillingen har jeg valgt å fokusere på elevers hverdagsforestillinger, argumentasjon og motivasjon i arbeidet med grubletegninger. Elevene i denne studien jobbet med grubletegninger individuelt og i grupper. I det individuelle arbeidet redegjorde elevene skriftlig for hvem av personene på tegningen de var mest enig med og begrunnet hvorfor. Elevene svarte også på tre spørsmål som omhandlet deres mening om arbeidet med grubletegninger. Under gruppearbeidet ble noen elever filmet mens de diskuterte de ulike påstandene på grubletegningen. Deres skriftlige besvarelser og gruppediskusjoner ble transkribert og analysert. Diskusjonsanalysen tok utgangspunkt i Stephens Toulmins kjennetegn på hvilke elementer som ofte inngår i en diskusjon, og Kine Hopstad By sin modifiserte versjon av Toulmins modell. Min studie finner at grubletegninger er svært effektive når det gjelder å avdekke og utfordre elevenes hverdagsforestillinger. Grubletegninger bidrar også til at elevene raskt starter sin gruppesamtale om det naturfaglige fenomenet. Elevenes skriftlige svar og deres samtaler i grupper viser imidlertid at mange har vanskeligheter med å formulere argumenter og begrunne sine påstander. Det er tydelig at elevene behøver opplæring og trening i argumentasjon. Studien indikerer også at elevene bør motta tydelige instrukser om hvordan de skal gå frem under samtalen om grubletegningene, dette for å sikre at elevene får til en god diskusjon. Grubletegninger som består av flere korrekte påstander virker å tilrettelegge bedre for diskusjon enn tegninger som kun består av én riktig påstand. Flertallet av elevene oppgir at de liker å jobbe med grubletegninger og at de gjerne vil benytte denne arbeidsmetoden igjen i naturfag, hvilket indikerer at arbeid med grubletegninger gir motiverte elever