The physical distribution security system: Who is affecting the vulnerability of goods transprtation?

The purpose of this study is to explore the vulnerability of physical distribution networks to antago- nistic threats. Previous research identifies globalization and Just in Time (JIT) as the main causes of vulnerability. However, cargo crime has always existed, even before the identification of these trends. In this explorative study new factors are brought to light. In particular, it appears that stake- holders’ dynamics are influencing the level of security

Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong

This paper develops and estimates an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Hong Kong economy. The model features short-run price rigidities generated by monopolistic competition and staggered reoptimisation. The model is enhanced with wealth effects due to stock price dynamics, which we believe to be important. For this reason we adopt a perpetual youth approach. Model parameters and unobserved components are estimated with a Bayesian maximum likelihood procedure, conditional on prior information concerning the values of parameters.DSGE models; wealth effects; open economy; Hong Kong

Построение динамической функции полезности инвестора в задаче выбора функционального назначения объекта недвижимости

We propose a dynamic utility function of the investor as decision-maker in the property market, as a tool for evaluating al- ternatives possible functionality of the product development project. Structural identification of utility functions carried out using the axiomatic theory of choice under risk. Parametric identification based on the use of statistical information about the dynam- ics of the implementation of real estate assessments of alternatives functional zoning of the city, as well as methods and determi- nistic equivalent of the lotter

You Cannot Have Your Cake and Eat It, too: How Induced Goal Conflicts Affect Complex Problem Solving

Managing multiple and conflicting goals is a demand typical to both everyday life and complex coordination tasks. Two experiments (N = 111) investigated how goal conflicts affect motivation and cognition in a complex problem- solving paradigm. In Experiment 1, participants dealt with a game-like computer simulation involving a predefined goal relation: Parallel goals were independent, mutually facilitating, or interfering with one another. As expected, goal conflicts entailed lowered motivation and wellbeing. Participants’ understanding of causal effects within the simulation was im- paired, too. Behavioral measures of subjects’ interventions support the idea of adaptive, self-regulatory processes: reduced action with growing awareness of the goal conflict and balanced goal pursuit. Experiment 2 endorses the hypotheses of motivation loss and reduced acquisition of system-related knowledge in an extended problem-solving paradigm of four conflicting goals. Impairing effects of goal interference on motivation and wellbeing were found, although less distinct and robust as in Experiment 1. Participants undertook fewer interventions in case of a goal conflict and acquired less knowledge about the system. Formal complexity due to the interconnectedness among goals is discussed as a limiting influence on inferring the problem structure

Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market

How strong is the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market? This paper estimates a New Keynesian general equilibrium model, which includes a wealth effect from asset price fluctuations to consumption, to assess the quantitative importance of interactions among the stock market, macroeconomic variables, and monetary policy. The paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and assumes that economic agents learn over time and form near-rational expectations from their perceived model of the economy. The stock market, therefore, affects the economy through two channels: through a traditional ``wealth effect" and through its impact on agents' expectations. Monetary policy decisions also affect and are potentially affected by the stock market. The empirical results show that the direct wealth effect is modest, but asset price fluctuations have had important effects on output expectations. Shocks in the stock market can account for a large portion of output fluctuations. The effect on expectations, however, has declined over time.Stock market; Wealth channel; Monetary policy; Constant-gain learning; Bayesian estimation; Expectations

Melanism as a potential thermal benefit in eastern fox squirrels (Sciurus niger)

Melanistic fox squirrels (Sciurus niger) have expanded westward and increased in frequency in the Omaha, Nebraska, and Council Bluffs, Iowa, metropolitan areas. The selective advantage of melanism is currently unknown, but thermal advantages have been hypothesized, especially in winter. No difference in metabolic response curves were measured between melanistic (black) and rufus (orange) fox squirrels. When exposed to sunny skies, both melanistic and rufus squirrels had higher surface (skin and fur) temperature as ambient temperatures increased. Melanistic squirrel surface temperatures did not differ when squirrels were exposed to sunny or cloudy skies. However, rufus individuals showed significantly lower increases in surface temperatures when under cloudy skies. During fall months, rufus individuals were about 1.5 times more active throughout the day than melanistic individuals. However, in winter, melanistic fox squirrels were approximately 30% more active in the mornings (before 13:00) compared to rufus squirrels. Pre-winter body condition was higher in melanistic (25.5 ± 1.8 g/cm) compared to rufus (20.30 ± 3.6 g/cm) fox squirrels; however, there were no significant differences between melanistic (22.8 ± 1.4 g/cm) and rufus (23.9 ± 0.8 g/cm) fox squirrel post-winter body condition. The results of this study indicate that melanistic fox squirrels may have a slight winter thermal advantage over rufus fox squirrels by maintaining higher skin temperatures

Polyfunctional Melan-A-specific tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells elicited by dacarbazine treatment before peptide-vaccination depends on AKT activation sustained by ICOS

The identification of activation pathways linked to anti-tumor T-cell polyfunctionality in long surviving patients is of great relevance in the new era of immunotherapy. We have recently reported that dacarbazine (DTIC) injected one day before peptide-vaccination plus IFN-α improves the anti-tumor lytic activity and enlarges the repertoire of Melan-A-specific T-cell clones, as compared with vaccination alone, impacting the overall survival of melanoma patients. To identify the mechanisms responsible for this improvement of the immune response, we have analyzed the endogenous and treatment-induced antigen-specific response in a panel of Melan-A-specific CD8+ T-cell clones in terms of differentiation phenotype, inhibitory receptor profile, polyfunctionality and AKT activation. Here we show that Melan-A specific CD8+ T cells isolated from patients treated with chemoimmunotherapy possess a late differentiated phenotype as defined by the absence of CD28 and CD27 co-stimulatory molecules and high levels of LAG-3, TIM-3 and PD-1 inhibitory receptors. Nevertheless they show higher proliferative potential and an improved anti-tumor polyfunctional effector profile in terms of co-production of TNF-α, IFN-γ and Granzyme-B compared with cells derived from patients treated with vaccination alone. Polyfunctionality is dependent on an active AKT signalling related to the engagement of the co-stimulatory molecule ICOS. We suggest that this phenotypic and functional signature is dictated by a fine-tuned balance between TCR triggering, AKT activation, co-stimulatory and inhibitory signals induced by chemoimmunotherapy and may be associated with anti-tumor T cells able to protect patients from tumor recurrence

Determinacy, Stock Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy Inertia

This note deals with the stability properties of an economy where the central bank is concerned with stock market developments. We introduce a Taylor rule reacting to stock price growth rates along with inflation and output gap in a New-Keynesian setup. We explore the performance of this rule from the vantage of equilibrium uniqueness. We show that this reaction function is isomorphic to a rule with an interest rate smoothing term, whose magnitude increases in the degree of aggressiveness towards asset prices growth. As shown by Bullard and Mitra (2007, Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39, 1177-1212) this feature of monetary policy inertia can help at alleviating problems of indeterminacy.monetary policy; asset prices; rational expectation equilibrium uniqueness