Endogenous Quasicycles and Stochastic Coherence in a Closed Endemic Model

We study the role of demographic fluctuations in typical endemics as exemplified by the stochastic SIRS model. The birth-death master equation of the model is simulated using exact numerics and analysed within the linear noise approximation. The endemic fixed point is unstable to internal demographic noise, and leads to sustained oscillations. This is ensured when the eigenvalues ($\lambda$) of the linearised drift matrix are complex, which in turn, is possible only if detailed balance is violated. In the oscillatory state, the phases decorrelate asymptotically, distinguishing such oscillations from those produced by external periodic forcing. These so-called quasicycles are of sufficient strength to be detected reliably only when the ratio $|Im(\lambda)/Re(\lambda)|$ is of order unity. The coherence or regularity of these oscillations show a maximum as a function of population size, an effect known variously as stochastic coherence or coherence resonance. We find that stochastic coherence can be simply understood as resulting from a non-monotonic variation of $|Im(\lambda)/Re(\lambda)|$ with population size. Thus, within the linear noise approximation, stochastic coherence can be predicted from a purely deterministic analysis. The non-normality of the linearised drift matrix, associated with the violation of detailed balance, leads to enhanced fluctuations in the population amplitudes.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Effects of antibiotic-suppelmented media on recovery of enterobacteria

The frequency at which Salmonella typhimurium (ST) and Escherichia coli were recovered from tryptic soy agar (TSA), brilliant green agar (BGA) and MacConkey agar (MAC) alone or supplemented with 2 and 16 µg kanamycin and 0.25 and 2 µg enrofloxacin was investigated

Direct observation of electron density reconstruction at the metal-insulator transition in NaOsO3

5d transition metal oxides offer new opportunities to test our understanding of the interplay of correlation effects and spin-orbit interactions in materials in the absence of a single dominant interaction. The subtle balance between solid-state interactions can result in new mechanisms that minimize the interaction energy, and in material properties of potential use for applications. We focus here on the 5d transition metal oxide NaOsO3, a strong candidate for the realization of a magnetically driven transition from a metallic to an insulating state exploiting the so-called Slater mechanism. Experimental results are derived from non-resonant and resonant x-ray single crystal diffraction at the Os L-edges. A change in the crystallographic symmetry does not accompany the metal-insulator transition in the Slater mechanism and, indeed, we find no evidence of such a change in NaOsO3. An equally important experimental observation is the emergence of the (300) Bragg peak in the resonant condition with the onset of magnetic order. The intensity of this space-group forbidden Bragg peak continuously increases with decreasing temperature in line with the square of intensity observed for an allowed magnetic Bragg peak. Our main experimental results, the absence of crystal symmetry breaking and the emergence of a space-group forbidden Bragg peak with developing magnetic order, support the use of the Slater mechanism to interpret the metal-insulator transition in NaOsO3. We successfully describe our experimental results with simulations of the electronic structure and, also, with an atomic model based on the established symmetry of the crystal and magnetic structure.Comment: 6 figure

Using δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to constrain Arctic methane emissions

We present a global methane modelling study assessing the sensitivity of Arctic atmospheric CH4 mole fractions, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to uncertainties in Arctic methane sources. Model simulations include methane tracers tagged by source and isotopic composition and are compared with atmospheric data at four northern high-latitude measurement sites. We find the model's ability to capture the magnitude and phase of observed seasonal cycles of CH4 mixing ratios, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 at northern high latitudes is much improved using a later spring kick-off and autumn decline in northern high-latitude wetland emissions than predicted by most process models. Results from our model simulations indicate that recent predictions of large methane emissions from thawing submarine permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf region could only be reconciled with global-scale atmospheric observations by making large adjustments to high-latitude anthropogenic or wetland emission inventories

Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat?

Methane hydrates, ice-like compounds in which methane is held in crystalline cages formed by water molecules, are widespread in areas of permafrost such as the Arctic and in sediments on the continental margins. They are a potentially vast fossil fuel energy source but, at the same time, could be destabilized by changing pressure-temperature conditions due to climate change, potentially leading to strong positive carbon-climate feedbacks. To enhance our understanding of both the vulnerability of and the opportunity provided by methane hydrates, it is necessary (i) to conduct basic research that improves the highly uncertain estimates of hydrate occurrences and their response to changing environmental conditions, and (ii) to integrate the agendas of energy security and climate change which can provide an opportunity for methane hydrates -- in particular if combined with carbon capture and storage -- to be used as a 'bridge fuel' between carbon-intensive fossil energies and zero-emission energies. Taken one step further, exploitation of dissociating methane hydrates could even mitigate against escape of methane to the atmosphere. Despite these opportunities, so far, methane hydrates have been largely absent from energy and climate discussions, including global hydrocarbon assessments and the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Enhanced stochastic oscillations in autocatalytic reactions

We study a simplified scheme of $k$ coupled autocatalytic reactions, previously introduced by Togashi and Kaneko. The role of stochastic fluctuations is elucidated through the use of the van Kampen system-size expansion and the results compared with direct stochastic simulations. Regular temporal oscillations are predicted to occur for the concentration of the various chemical constituents, with an enhanced amplitude resulting from a resonance which is induced by the intrinsic graininess of the system. The associated power spectra are determined and have a different form depending on the number of chemical constituents, $k$. We make detailed comparisons in the two cases $k=4$ and $k=8$. Agreement between the theoretical and numerical results for the power spectrum are good in both cases. The resulting spectrum is especially interesting in the $k=8$ system, since it has two peaks, which the system-size expansion is still able to reproduce accurately.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Making sense of policy choices: understanding the roles of value predispositions, mass media, and cognitive processing in public attitudes toward nanotechnology

Using a nationally representative telephone survey of 1,015 adults in the United States, this study examines how value predispositions, communication variables, and perceptions of risks and benefits are associated with public support for federal funding of nanotechnology. Our findings show that highly religious individuals were less supportive of funding of nanotech than less religious individuals, whereas individuals who held a high deference for scientific authority were more supportive of funding of the emerging technology than those low in deference. Mass media use and elaborative processing of scientific news were positively associated with public support for funding, whereas factual scientific knowledge had no significant association with policy choices. The findings suggest that thinking about and reflecting upon scientific news promote better understanding of the scientific world and may provide a more sophisticated cognitive structure for the public to form opinions about nanotech than factual scientific knowledge. Finally, heuristic cues including trust in scientists and perceived risks and benefits of nanotech were found to be associated with public support for nanotech funding. We conclude with policy implications that will be useful for policymakers and science communication practitioners