Rahapolitiikan optimaalinen harjoittaminen

Only abstract. Paper copies of master’s theses are listed in the Helka database (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Electronic copies of master’s theses are either available as open access or only on thesis terminals in the Helsinki University Library.Vain tiivistelmä. Sidottujen gradujen saatavuuden voit tarkistaa Helka-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Digitaaliset gradut voivat olla luettavissa avoimesti verkossa tai rajoitetusti kirjaston opinnäytekioskeilla.Endast sammandrag. Inbundna avhandlingar kan sökas i Helka-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Elektroniska kopior av avhandlingar finns antingen öppet på nätet eller endast tillgängliga i bibliotekets avhandlingsterminaler.Työ käsittelee rahapolitiikan harjoittamista sellaisin keskuspankin keinoin, joilla vaikutetaan välittömästi talouteen eli lähinnä korkopolitiikkaa. Työssä ei käsitellä sellaisia institutionaalisia välineitä kuten liikepankeille määrättäviä kassareservejä. Työ aloittaa keskuspankin valintaongelman määrittelyn tuotannon ja inflaation väliltä selittämällä ajallisen epäjohdonmukaisuuden käsitettä. Tekstissä käydään läpi Kydlandin ja Prescottin klassinen artikkeli siitä, miten sidottu rahapolitiikka tuottaa talouteen suurempaa hyvinvointia kuin täysin harkinnanvarainen politiikka. Tekstissä myös perustellaan se, miten keskuspankki valitsee instrumenttinsa eli sitä milloin keskuspankki valitsee välineekseen rahamäärän lisäämisen ja milloin korkojen muutoksen. Työssä käsitellään laajasti keskuspankeille kehiteltyjä sääntöjä, joista erityisen suuren huomion saa keksijänsä John B Taylorin mukaan nimetty Taylorin sääntö. Työssä esitellään myös rahamäärä sääntö sekä inflaatiotavoitesääntö. Sääntöjen saamaa kritiikkiä käsitellään niin kuin on katsottu sopivaksi. Kritiikki auttaa ymmärtämään sääntöjä ja rahapolitiikkaa paremmin, sillä kritiikki koskee sääntöjen lisäksi koko makrotalouden ongelmaa. Eli sitä miten ekonomistien tietämys kaiken syy seuraus suhteesta on rajallinen mentäessä tarpeeksi suureen kokonaisuuteen. Työssä käsitellään malli, jolla arvioidaan niitä tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat erityisesti korruptoituneessa yhteiskunnassa rahapolitiikan menestykselliseen toteuttamiseen. Mallista tehdään johtopäätöksiä sen suhteen miten paikalliset olot vaikuttavat menestyksellisen rahapolitiikan harjoittamiseen. Lopuksi Euroopan rahaliiton rahapolitiikkaa arvioidaan Taylorin säännöillä tehtävillä kokeilla ja selitetään näiden kokeiden tuloksia. Erilaisia testejä rahaliiton alueella on työssä suoritettu neljä. Estimoitavina muuttujina käytetään inflaatiota, tuotannon poikkeamista potentiaalisesta tasostaan, rahamäärää M3 sekä yhteisvaluutta euron ulkoista valuuttakurssia Yhdysvaltain dollaria vastaan. Kokeiden tuloksia läpikäydessä työ ottaa kantaa myös omaan otsikkoonsa, käsitellen niitä tekijöitä, jotka ovat vaadittavissa optimaaliselta rahapolitiikalta. Tehdyistä kokeista huonoiten käsiteltyä aineistoa kuvaa tyypillinen Taylorin sääntö, jossa arvioituja rahapolitiikan tekijöitä on vain kaksi eli inflaatio ja tuotantokuilu. Parhaiten aineistoa selittää koe, joka ottaa huomioon kaikki käsiteltävät muuttujat

Kustannuskilpailukyvyn mittausmenetelmien uudistaminen

Tässä tutkimuksessa tehdasteollisuuden kustannuskilpailukykyä mitataan suhteellisten yksikkökustannusten avulla. Yksikkökustannukset kuvaavat toimialan muuttuvien kustannusten, työvoimakustannusten ja välituotekäytön, suhdetta tuotettuun tuoteyksikköön. Menetelmä kuvaa tehdasteollisuuden kustannuskilpailukykyä paremmin kuin perinteinen yksikkötyökustannuksiin perustuva mittari. Empiirisen analyysin perusteella suhteelliset yksikkökustannukset myös selittävät viennissä tapahtuvia muutoksia. Tutkimuksessa käytetyn mittausmenetelmän mukaan Suomen tehdasteollisuuden kustannuskilpailukyky heikentyi trendimäisesti noin 10 prosenttia viime vuosikymmenen aikana. Euron vahvistuminen oli selvästi tärkein Suomen kustannuskilpailukykyä heikentävä tekijä. Suomen tehdasteollisuuden kustannuskilpailukyky muihin euromaihin verrattuna säilyi vastaavasti melko hyvänä

Why do firms invest in the Baltic Sea Region

We have defined the Baltic Sea Region as consisting of the following countries and regions : Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and the regions of St Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast and Kaliningrad in Russia. We have investigated the factors af-fecting FDI in the Baltic Sea Region in three ways. First, we have studied the factors affecting FDI on the basis of the existing theoretical and empirical literature. Secondly, we have studied the characteristics of the existing FDI in the Baltic Sea Region. Thirdly, we have researched the investment motives through two firm questionnaires : 1) firms participating in the MIPIM real estate fairs and 2) Finnish firms active in the Baltic Sea Region (Finpro register). The common results of both empirical enquiries were : 1) the most important reasons for FDI are market size and its growth potential, 2) companies do not see the BSR as a single market in their actual decision making process, 3) there are clear benefits in having the non-Euro area countries as members of the EMU, but the results are not very robust : obviously they are weakened by the already rather credible pegs of the Estonian, Danish, Latvian and Lithuanian currencies and the diversification benefits of the floating Swedish krone, and 4) governmental investment promotion organizations have a rather small role in the actual investment decision making process. Their role is rather in giving general information on the countrys investment environment. The most important differences between the samples of firms are : 1) in the real estate sector the majority of FDI is done through buying an existing firm, whereas in the sample of Finnish firms most FDI is done as a greenfield investment (establishing a new firm), 2) among the real estate firms Sweden, Finland, Germany and Poland are the most important destinations for FDI, while in the Finnish sample of firms (including more manufacturing and service firms) St Petersburg, Poland, Estonia and Sweden are the most important destinations, 3) in the sample of real estate firms R&D and the proximity of the Russian market are not important motives for FDI, contrary to the Finnish, more manufacturing and retail trade-oriented sample, and 4) among the real estate firms the potential for large increases in real estate prices is an important motive for FDI.Foreign direct investment (FDI), Baltic Sea Region, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, St Petersburg, Leningrad Region, Kaliningrad

Productivity, Employment and Taxes - A SVAR Analysis of Trade-offs and Impacts

The paper considers time series evidence on the relationships, and possible trade-offs, between productivity and employment, and on the impact of taxes in this connection. First, a theoretical model is built for an open economy leading to the identification of technology, non-technology and labour and capital tax wedge shocks, as based on their long-run effects. Then structural VAR models are estimated for the EU-15 and some other OECD countries to infer the above relationships. Our conclusion is that there is in the EU a fairly uniform and significant short-run negative impulse on employment from a positive productivity shock, while this becomes smaller and statistically insignificant over time in most, but not in some member countries. The former situation is interpreted to be an indication of nominal and the latter that of real or structural rigidity in the economy. In the US, there is no such trade-off, either in the short or long run. The impulse response of the shocks in the tax wedge on labour in the aggregate EU-15 is a fairly sizeable negative impact on employment both in the short and long run, and the effects of capital income tax shocks are negative on productivity. In the majority of the individual EU-15 countries these results are not, however, statistically significant.Productivity, employment, taxes, EU

Productivity, Empoyment and Taxes - Evidence on the Potential Trade-offs and Impacts in the EU

The paper considers time series evidence on the relationships, and possible trade-offs, between productivity and employment, and on the impact of taxes in this connection. First, a theoretical model is built for an open economy leading to the identification of technology, non-technology and tax shocks. Then structural VAR models are estimated for all the EU-15 and some other OECD countries to infer the above links. Our conclusion is that there is in the EU a fairly uniform and significant short-run negative impulse on employment from a positive productivity shock, while this becomes smaller and statistically insignificant over time in most, but not in some member countries. The former situation is interpreted to be an indication of nominal and the latter that of real or structural rigidity in the economy. In the US, there is no such trade-off, either in the short or long run. Tax shocks are found to have mostly a short-run negative effect which is stronger on productivity than on aggregate employment. However, if we separate the effects of labour taxes and corporate taxes, the former have in the EU-15 a strong negative effect on employment while the latter are fairly neutral. Second, we simulate an aggregative econometric labour market model and insert various types of shocks into it : a rise in productivity, achieved, e.g. by enhancing R&D, or by rationalising the use of labour, and a change in the tax/benefit system. We find that although there is no long-run trade-off between productivity and employment, over the medium run acceleration of productivity has a clear positive effect on employment.productivity, employment, taxes, EU

Yksityisten palvelualojen kansainvälinen tuottavuusvertailu

Private services account for over a half of GDP in developed industrialised countries. We analyse how productivity in private services is measured, the challenges and problems that the measuring faces, and the direction that research is currently taking. After this we analyse the level of and growth in private services in developed industrialised countries in 1980-2003. For Finland, also the development in total factor productivity is analysed. The sectors included in the study are trade, hotels and catering, transportation, communication, finance, and business services. At the level of the economy as a whole, labour productivity in Finland is at the same level as in the reference countries on average, but productivity growth has been one of the fastest during the past twenty years. In private services, the results concerning the level of productivity in different countries depend on the method and statistical source used in the calculation. In an international comparison, the Finnish communication and finance sectors do the best. In many service sectors, productivity growth in Finland has been very good compared with the other countriesproductivity, private services, international comparison

Finnish Firms Operating in the Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Slovenian Markets

We analyse the experience of Finnish firms operating in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia (CEE4 countries) and their future business prospects there. First, we review the state and development of these countries economies. The countries face different economic challenges. After that we analyse the results from our firm survey. The questionnaire was sent to Finnish firms that operate in the CEE4 countries. According to the results, growing local markets and the countries EU membership are the principal factors that support business there. The firms that answered the questionnaire plan to continue to expand their operations in the CEE4 countries. We also interviewed a number of Finnish business leaders whose companies have production in Hungary. Finally, the paper includes an analysis by a Hungarian researcher on the outlook of the Hungarian economy and the investment and business environment in the country. The economic size of the CEE4 countries and their growth potential form a possibility for Finnish firms. In the future, competition in the local markets will continue to increase, however.Tekki, Slovakia, Unkari, Slovenia, yritystoiminta, kansainvälistyminen, suorat sijoitukset, ulkomaankauppa

Opening Economy and Regional Development - Comparative Advantage and Agglomeration Forces as Location Factors in Finland

The study examines the developments in production structures in Finnish regions and the differences in regional income levels and the causes that affect them in an integrating global economy as well as the challenges facing regional policies. The increasing openness of the world economy, the increasing competition it causes and its effect on Finlands regions is the central task of this study. We combine the classical theory of international trade based on comparative advantage about the specialisation of countries with the approach of the new economic geography and agglomeration forces about the specialisation of regions inside countries. The study is a pioneer in Finland because similar analysis of regional production structures and specialisation has not been done before. We find that the so-called agglomeration forces drive the location of production in Finland. These regional agglomeration forces are the economic size of the region and closeness to markets (so-called market potential), distance between companies producing intermediate and final products, scale effects, and the educational level and R&D activities. Centralisation of production also requires that workforce is willing to relocate and that the productivity growth in core areas is faster than on average. Because labour mobility is such a central requirement for production agglomeration the study also examines migration within Finland in the past 50 years. For regional policies the conclusion of the study is that agglomeration forces should not be constrained if they lead to and are caused by faster productivity growth in core regions. In Finland there are significant differences in public sector services per capita in different regions so that regions with low wage and tax revenues have more public sector services in per capita terms than the core regions. This means that it is very hard to stop migration flows using the community tax equalisation scheme.egional economy, agglomeration forces, comparative advantage, new economic geography

Growth Prospects of Emerging Market Economies in Europe - How Fast Will They Catch up with the Old West?

Using a neo-classical growth model, we analyse the real and nominal GDP per capita convergence of 21 emerging market economies (EMEs) of Central and Eastern Europe towards the EU15 average by 2050. We estimate the countries initial capital stocks and project future investment as a function of the GDP per capita gap, among other things, in order to have converging physical capital intensities in the long run. Due to standard-convergence in the model, catching up will continue at a decelerating speed. Also nominal convergence in prices that will lead to a real appreciation of the EME currencies with respect to the euro is projected as a function of the GDP-per-capita gap vis-à-vis the EU15. We also discuss whether the level of human capital in the EMEs is likely to allow for full catching up. We argue that the EU membership of most of the EMEs is likely to improve their economic, investment and business environments and lead to economic and other policies that support long-term convergence. According to the results, the EMEs will not quite catch up with the EU15 by 2050. However, our analysis of the uncertainty related to the growth rates and calculations of a confidence band for the results, as well as a qualitative assessment of other factors (politics, institutions, human capital) that have not been taken into account in the model explicitly lead us to conclude that some of the EMEs are likely to catch up with the EU15 average during the course of the next couple of decades.productivity, growth, convergence, emerging markets, EU