Another Approach to Consensus and Maximally Informed Opinions with Increasing Evidence

Merging of opinions results underwrite Bayesian rejoinders to complaints about the subjective nature of personal probability. Such results establish that sufficiently similar priors achieve consensus in the long run when fed the same increasing stream of evidence. Initial subjectivity, the line goes, is of mere transient significance, giving way to intersubjective agreement eventually. Here, we establish a merging result for sets of probability measures that are updated by Jeffrey conditioning. This generalizes a number of different merging results in the literature. We also show that such sets converge to a shared, maximally informed opinion. Convergence to a maximally informed opinion is a (weak) Jeffrey conditioning analogue of Bayesian “convergence to the truth” for conditional probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the philosophical significance of our study by detailing applications to the topics of dynamic coherence, imprecise probabilities, and probabilistic opinion pooling

Obligation, Permission, and Bayesian Orgulity

This essay has two aims. The first is to correct an increasingly popular way of misunderstanding Belot's Orgulity Argument. The Orgulity Argument charges Bayesianism with defect as a normative epistemology. For concreteness, our argument focuses on Cisewski et al.'s recent rejoinder to Belot. The conditions that underwrite their version of the argument are too strong and Belot does not endorse them on our reading. A more compelling version of the Orgulity Argument than Cisewski et al. present is available, however---a point that we make by drawing an analogy with de Finetti's argument against mandating countable additivity. Having presented the best version of the Orgulity Argument, our second aim is to develop a reply to it. We extend Elga's idea of appealing to finitely additive probability to show that the challenge posed by the Orgulity Argument can be met

Persistent Disagreement and Polarization in a Bayesian Setting

For two ideally rational agents, does learning a finite amount of shared evidence necessitate agreement? No. But does it at least guard against belief polarization, the case in which their opinions get further apart? No. OK, but are rational agents guaranteed to avoid polarization if they have access to an infinite, increasing stream of shared evidence? No

Feed Supplements for Young Dairy Breed Calves After Turn-Out to Pasture: Effect on Weight Gain and Subclinical Coccidiosis in Organic Production Systems

On two organic farms, the effect of supplementation with either home-grown barley or organic commercial concentrates primarily based on local protein sources and barley, on weight gain and subclinical coccidiosis was investigated in 3-5 months old dairy breed calves in the period after turn-out to ryegrass/clover pastures. The calves (mean liveweight ± SD, 124 ± 24 kg and 133 ± 24 kg on Farm I and II respectively) were supplemented daily with 3 kg energy and protein-rich commercial concentrates (group EP), 3 kg barley (group E) or ½ kg barley (group Eres) for 8 weeks following turn-out on pasture. Daily weight gains in the 8 weeks were for Farm I: 1216 and 1042 g/day for group EP and E (P < 0.01) and for Farm II: 1071, 671 and 770 g/day for group EP, E and Eres respectively (P < 0.001). However, liveweights were similar between groups at housing, although group EP had significantly higher liveweight at housing on Farm I (P < 0.01). Initial liveweight had effects on daily gain in the grazing season, but supplementation with energy and protein reduced this effect on Farm I. No clinical signs of coccidiosis were observed, but markedly higher levels of oocysts per gram faeces (opg) were observed on Farm II, using pastures previously grazed by cattle compared to Farm I. Calves having a maximum oocyst count above 5 000 opg were subclinically affected by coccidiosis, as indicated by low faecal dry matter and reduction in daily gain of 222 g/day (P < 0.05). It is concluded that liveweight can be increased when supplementing calves with organic concentrates rich in energy and protein in the period following turn-out compared to supplementation with barley alone. However, the overall gain at the end of the grazing season is limited due to compensatory growth in the grazing period following supplementation

Potentials to differentiate milk composition by different feeding strategies

To investigate the effect of the dietary intake of the cow on milk composition, bulk-tank milk was collected on 5 occasions from conventional (n = 15) and organic (n = 10) farms in Denmark and on 4 occasions from low-input nonorganic farms in the United Kingdom, along with management and production parameters. Production of milk based on feeding a high intake of cereals, pasture, and grass silage resulted in milk with a high concentration of α-linolenic acid (9.4 ± 0.2 mg/ kg of fatty acids), polyunsaturated fatty acids (3.66 ± 0.07 mg/kg of fatty acids), and natural stereoisomer of α-tocopherol (RRR-α-tocopherol, 18.6 ± 0.5 mg/kg of milk fat). A milk production system using a high proportion of maize silage, by-products, and commercial concentrate mix was associated with milk with high concentrations of linoleic acid (LA; 19.7 ± 0.4 g/kg of fatty acids), monounsaturated fatty acids (27.5 ± 0.3 mg/kg of fatty acids), and a high ratio between LA and α-linolenic acid (4.7 ± 0.2). Comparing these 2 production systems with a very extensive nonorganic milk production system relying on pasture as almost the sole feed (95 ± 4% dry matter intake), it was found that the concentrations of conjugated LA (cis-9,trans-11; 17.5 ± 0.7 g/kg of fatty acids), trans-11-vaccenic acid (37 ± 2 g/kg of fatty acids), and monounsaturated fatty acids (30.4 ± 0.6 g/kg of fatty acids) were higher in the extensively produced milk together with the concentration of antioxidants; total α-tocopherol (32.0 ± 0.8 mg/kg of milk fat), RRR-α-tocopherol (30.2 ± 0.8 mg/kg of milk fat), and β-carotene (9.3 ± 0.5 mg/kg of milk fat) compared with the organic and conventional milk. Moreover, the concentration of LA (9.2 ± 0.7 g/kg of fatty acids) in milk from the extensive milk production system was found to approach the recommended unity ratio between n-6 and n-3, although extensive milk production also resulted in a lower daily milk yield

FCS: at the crossroad, again

Agricultural credit

Fabrication of high-purity polycrystalline mgo

Chemical production and analysis of magnesium oxide - high purity polycrystalline fabricatio

Vortes solutions in nonabelian Higgs theories

A new class of vortex solutions is found in SU(2) gauge theories with two adjoint representation Higgs bosons. Implications of these new solutions and their possible connection with Center Gauge fixed pure gauge theories are discussed.Comment: 8 pages, added references, other changes, including title and abstrac

Scattering fidelity in elastodynamics

The recent introduction of the concept of scattering fidelity, causes us to revisit the experiment by Lobkis and Weaver [Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 254302 (2003)]. There, the ``distortion'' of the coda of an acoustic signal is measured under temperature changes. This quantity is in fact the negative logarithm of scattering fidelity. We re-analyse their experimental data for two samples, and we find good agreement with random matrix predictions for the standard fidelity. Usually, one may expect such an agreement for chaotic systems only. While the first sample, may indeed be assumed chaotic, for the second sample, a perfect cuboid, such an agreement is more surprising. For the first sample, the random matrix analysis yields a perturbation strength compatible with semiclassical predictions. For the cuboid the measured perturbation strength is much larger than expected, but with the fitted values for this strength, the experimental data are well reproduced.Comment: 4 page