Impacto da crise do COVID-19 no sistema bancário português. Abordagem de ordenação linear

The goal of this paper is to assess the resilience of Portuguese banks to the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, diagnostic variables of 19 banks were selected and prioritized using linear ordering methods. This methodology allowed us to perform rankings of banks using six linear ordering methods and taking into account two weighting procedures and two variants of the diagnostic feature. The study was also supplemented by a sensitivity analysis and an optimization procedure aimed at identifying the optimal linear ordering method. The main results obtained show that the resilience of Portuguese banks is not evenly distributed among individual banks. These findings could be used by regulators to plan support measures for the most fragile banks.El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la resistencia de los bancos portugueses al impacto potencial de la pandemia por COVID-19. Para ello, se seleccionaron y priorizaron variables de diagnóstico de 19 bancos mediante métodos de ordenamiento lineal; esta metodología permitió realizar rankings de bancos utilizando seis métodos de ordenamiento lineal teniendo en cuenta dos procedimientos de ponderación y dos variantes de la característica de diagnóstico. El estudio también se complementó con un análisis de sensibilidad y un procedimiento de optimización destinado a identificar el método ideal de ordenación lineal. Los principales resultados obtenidos muestran que la resistencia de los bancos portugueses no se distribuye uniformemente entre los bancos individuales. Los reguladores podrían utilizar estos resultados para planificar medidas de apoyo a los bancos más frágiles.O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a resistência dos bancos portugueses ao potencial impacto da pandemia COVID-19. Para isso, variáveis de diagnóstico de 19 bancos foram selecionadas e priorizadas por meio de métodos de ordenação linear. Essa metodologia permitiu classificar os bancos usando seis métodos de ordenação linear e levando em consideração dois procedimentos de ponderação e duas variantes da característica diagnóstica. O estudo também foi complementado com uma análise de sensibilidade e um procedimento de otimização, com o objetivo de identificar o método de ordenação linear ideal. Os principais resultados obtidos mostram que a resistência dos bancos portugueses não se encontra uniformemente distribuída entre os bancos individuais. Os reguladores poderiam usar esses resultados para planear medidas de apoio aos bancos mais frágeis

Do Commercial Banks in Poland Pass the Bank Tax On to Their Customers?

Theoretical background: Bank tax was introduced in Poland in February 2016. As a consequence, several banks with assets surpassing certain value need to cope with the additional burden.Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to verify whether Polish banks that nominally are subject to the bank tax indeed shifted onto their clients most of the cost connected with this new levy and, thus, now these are the clients who effectively bear the burden of bank tax.Research methods: The analysis is based on monthly data for the years 2010–2021, for which a multilayer comparison of performance of banks subject to the bank tax was made from various perspectives: (1) before and after the introduction of bank tax and (2) with remaining banks not subject to a bank tax – which serve as a control sample. The analysis took into account the composition of Polish bank sector, while focusing on the development of: (1) revenues, costs and income from commissions and charges, (2) revenues and income from interest, (3) level of commissions and charges as well as interest imposed on different bank products, (4) banks profitability, (5) their balance sheet total and (6) ROA.Main findings: The analysis does not confirm increases in revenues of commercial banks and foreign branches following the introduction of the bank levy, whereas the profitability and ROA of these banks worsened significantly. At the same time, the performance of banks not affected by the levy did not deteriorate, which allows to conclude that banks did not manage to shift the cost of bank tax onto their customers. Conclusions are important primarily from the perspective of fiscal policy (they answer the question on effective tax incidence) and supervisory policy (to what extent the introduction of the tax erodes the performance of the banking sector, inhibiting the accumulation of capital determining the level of financial stability)

Changes in the Default Component of Spread at a Time of Financial Instability

The paper aims to identify factors determining the level of spread in light of the latest theories. The author examines theories related to spread by classifying individual concepts into several categories and looks at theoretical approaches in the context of the latest financial crisis on the U.S. market. Niedziółka checks to what extent the breakdown of spread at a time of financial instability testifies to its “decomposition” on the basis of data collected before the crisis. The study makes use of rating agency data on the probability of default depending on the rating. The author also uses rating transition matrices and the theory of Markow chains to determine the share of the default component in spread identified as the difference between the profitability of corporate and Treasury securities. The main advantage of this method is that it adopts a realistic assumption about a gradual change in the quality of debt in a given time period, Niedziółka says. Considering the limitations linked with the use of the rating transition matrix mentioned in the article, the results of research into the structure of spread at a time of financial instability lead the author to formulate the following conclusions: 1) In accordance with the heuristic approach, the share of the default component is subject to reduction in favor of the liquidity component even though the default factor increases in absolute terms; 2) An increase in the volatility of spread is chiefly determined by the liquidity factor; 3) The proportion of the default component increases with the maturity of bonds; however in each case the share of the default component in spread during a period of financial instability is lower than during a period of financial stability

Związek pomiędzy pułapem krajowym a ratingiem suwerennym na przykładzie Polski

The aim of the article is to answer the question whether the ratings of entities registered in Poland are limited by the sovereign rating of the country. The author theorises that the sovereign rating of Poland does not constitute the upper limit for ratings granted by the Big Three (Fitch Ratings, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s) to Polish financial and non‑financial entities. The databases of three leading rating agencies were queried, selecting all (52) long‑term foreign ratings assigned to entities registered in Poland. The analysis indicates that currently no confirmation can be found of the use of the country ceiling principle, according to which the rating of any entity registered in a given country cannot be higher than its sovereign rating, by rating agencies (7.7% of rated entities in Poland is given higher rating than the sovereign one). This is at the same time a higher percentage than the average for all Big Three ratings, amounting to approx. 3%. The country ceiling is an upper, potential sovereign rating bound, resulting from the T&C risk. In the case of entities registered in Poland, however, their rating is a maximum of one notch higher than the sovereign rating, which in turn is in line with the policy that Standard & Poor’s officially announced as the only agency among the Big Three (the rating of an entity registered in a given jurisdiction can be up to four notches higher than the sovereign rating). The analysis of ratings assigned to Polish entities also indicates that a rating above the sovereign rating awarded by a given credit rating agency does not translate into similar actions of other agencies. This paper analyses the relationships between the concepts of country risk, T&C risk and sovereign risk. Another original contribution is establishing how the country ceiling principle used by rating agencies works in practice and verifying the scope of application of this principle in the Polish economic reality.Celem artykułu jest udzielenie odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy ratingi podmiotów zarejestrowanych w Polsce są ograniczone przez rating suwerenny tego kraju. Autor zakłada, że rating suwerenny Polski nie określa górnej granicy ocen przyznawanych przez Wielką Trójkę (Fitch Ratings, Moody’s i Standard & Poor’s) finansowym i niefinansowym podmiotom polskim. Przeprowadzono kwerendę baz danych trzech głównych agencji ratingowych, wybierając wszystkie (52) długoterminowe ratingi zagraniczne przypisane do podmiotów zarejestrowanych w Polsce. Z analizy wynika, że obecnie nie znajduje potwierdzenia zasada pułapu krajowego, zgodnie z którą rating każdego podmiotu zarejestrowanego w danym kraju nie może być wyższy od ratingu suwerennego (w Polsce 7,7% ocenianych podmiotów otrzymuje wyższy rating niż państwo). Jest to jednocześnie wyższa wartość niż średnia dla wszystkich ocen dokonywanych przez Wielką Trójkę, która wynosi około 3%. Pułap krajowy to górna, potencjalna granica ratingu suwerennego, wynikająca z ryzyka T&C, choć w przypadku podmiotów zarejestrowanych w Polsce ich rating jest maksymalnie o jeden stopień wyższy od ratingu suwerennego, co z kolei jest zgodne z polityką Standard & Poor’s – jedynej agencji spośród Wielkiej Trójki, prezentującej oficjalne stanowisko w tej kwestii (rating podmiotu zarejestrowanego w danej jurysdykcji jest do czterech stopni wyższy od ratingu tego kraju). Analiza ratingów przyznanych polskim podmiotom wskazuje również, że przyznawana przez daną agencję ratingową ocena powyżej ratingu państwa nie przekłada się na podobne działania innych agencji. W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono relacje między pojęciami ryzyka kraju, ryzyka transferu i wymienialności oraz ratingu suwerennego. Kolejny oryginalny wkład to ustalenie, czym w praktyce jest zasada pułapu krajowego dla agencji ratingowych, i sprawdzenie zakresu jej stosowania w polskich realiach gospodarczych

Impacto da crise do COVID-19 no sistema bancário português. Abordagem de ordenação linear

The goal of this paper is to assess the resilience of Portuguese banks to the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, diagnostic variables of 19 banks were selected and prioritized using linear ordering methods. This methodology allowed us to perform rankings of banks using six linear ordering methods and taking into account two weighting procedures and two variants of the diagnostic feature. The study was also supplemented by a sensitivity analysis and an optimization procedure aimed at identifying the optimal linear ordering method. The main results obtained show that the resilience of Portuguese banks is not evenly distributed among individual banks. These findings could be used by regulators to plan support measures for the most fragile banks.El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la resistencia de los bancos portugueses al impacto potencial de la pandemia por COVID-19. Para ello, se seleccionaron y priorizaron variables de diagnóstico de 19 bancos mediante métodos de ordenamiento lineal; esta metodología permitió realizar rankings de bancos utilizando seis métodos de ordenamiento lineal teniendo en cuenta dos procedimientos de ponderación y dos variantes de la característica de diagnóstico. El estudio también se complementó con un análisis de sensibilidad y un procedimiento de optimización destinado a identificar el método ideal de ordenación lineal. Los principales resultados obtenidos muestran que la resistencia de los bancos portugueses no se distribuye uniformemente entre los bancos individuales. Los reguladores podrían utilizar estos resultados para planificar medidas de apoyo a los bancos más frágiles.O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a resistência dos bancos portugueses ao potencial impacto da pandemia COVID-19. Para isso, variáveis de diagnóstico de 19 bancos foram selecionadas e priorizadas por meio de métodos de ordenação linear. Essa metodologia permitiu classificar os bancos usando seis métodos de ordenação linear e levando em consideração dois procedimentos de ponderação e duas variantes da característica diagnóstica. O estudo também foi complementado com uma análise de sensibilidade e um procedimento de otimização, com o objetivo de identificar o método de ordenação linear ideal. Os principais resultados obtidos mostram que a resistência dos bancos portugueses não se encontra uniformemente distribuída entre os bancos individuais. Os reguladores poderiam usar esses resultados para planear medidas de apoio aos bancos mais frágeis

Analiza potencjalnych korzyści oraz negatywnych konsekwencji wdrożenia norm LCR oraz NSFR w bankach europejskich

The introduction of liquidity ratios on the banking sector and the real economywill lead to adaptation of the banks. Mismatch between the maturity of assets andliabilities will be subject to reduction. These shifts in the banks’ balance sheetsmay result in diminishing profitability of banks as long as the cost of maintainingadditional capital and balance sheet structure changes will not be passed on to customers. Another consequence may be an impediment to access of nonfinancialentities to long-term financing. Thus, increased cost of credit and reductionof its availability in the short term will have negative impact on economicgrowth while introduction of liquidity standards and new capital requirementssignificantly reduces the probability of a banking crisis, which compensates forinterim and slight decrease in the growth rate

Systemic and Reputational Risk in the Activities of Rating Agencies

This article contains an analysis of the impact channels through which credit rating agencies may affect systemic risk, while raising the research question of whether reputational risk is a sufficient mechanism for disciplining credit rating agencies and motivating them to care for the high quality of ratings. Research into reputational risk for rating agencies has led to the conclusion that credit rating agencies manage reputational risk. During a boom period, they perceive this risk as low and hence they tend to offer overestimated ratings. It is difficult then to show errors in rating decisions, and both issuers and investors benefit from high ratings. It is only during a bearish period that assessments become more diverse and better reflect the actual credit risk, sometimes overestimating it. During such a period, the likelihood of insolvency and therefore the need for a gradual reduction in ratings are higher. This proves the existence of reputation cycles and puts into question the claim that agency ratings are through-the-cycle ratings. Due to the possibility of an independent credit risk assessment of single-name securities, ratings are not usually overestimated for these securities, while the reputation of rating agencies built on the single-name instruments market is transferred to the structured instruments market where risk is underestimated. In order to reduce systemic risk, in both the United States and the European Union, decisions have been made to subject rating agencies to civil liability. There was also a need to define a regulatory framework for rating agencies and to intensify supervision.Artykuł zawiera analizę kanałów oddziaływania agencji ratingowych na ryzyko systemowe, jednocześnie stawiając pytanie badawcze, czy ryzyko reputacyjne jest wystarczającym mechanizmem dyscyplinującym agencje ratingowe i motywującym je do dbałości o wysoką jakość nadawanych ocen. Badania nad ryzykiem reputacyjnym w działalności agencji ratingowych pozwoliły na wyciągnięcie wniosku, iż agencje ratingowe zarządzają ryzykiem reputacyjnym. W okresie hossy postrzegają to ryzyko jako niskie i stąd ratingi są przeszacowywane. Trudno jest wówczas wykazać błędy w decyzjach dotyczących ratingów, a korzyści z wysokich ocen uzyskują zarówno emitenci, jak i inwestorzy. Dopiero w okresie bessy oceny stają się bardziej zróżnicowane i lepiej oddają poziom faktycznego ryzyka kredytowego, niekiedy go przeszacowując. W tym okresie prawdopodobieństwo niewypłacalności i tym samym konieczności skokowej redukcji oceny jest wyższe. Dowodzi to istnienia cykli reputacyjnych i poddaje pod wątpliwość tezę forsowaną przez agencje ratingi, iż ich ratingi są ocenami „through the cycle”. Ze względu na możliwość dokonania niezależnej oceny ryzyka kredytowego papierów typu single name, w przypadku tych walorów ratingi najczęściej nie są przeszacowywane, natomiast reputacja agencji ratingowych zbudowana na rynku instrumentów single name transferowana jest na rynek instrumentów strukturyzowanych, na którym ryzyko jest niedoszacowane. Samoregulacja, w przypadku której wystarczającym argumentem za poprawą jakości procesów oraz oferowanych produktów dla instytucji kreującej informację, wykorzystywaną następnie w procesie decyzyjnym, powinno być ryzyko reputacyjne, nie zdaje zatem egzaminu. Dlatego w celu redukcji ryzyka systemowego, zarówno w Stanach Zjednoczonych, jak i w Unii Europejskiej, zdecydowano się na objęcie agencji ratingowych odpowiedzialnością cywilną. Powstała również potrzeba zdefiniowania ram regulacyjnych dla agencji ratingowych oraz intensyfikacji nadzoru nad nimi