Significance testing as perverse probabilistic reasoning

Truth claims in the medical literature rely heavily on statistical significance testing. Unfortunately, most physicians misunderstand the underlying probabilistic logic of significance tests and consequently often misinterpret their results. This near-universal misunderstanding is highlighted by means of a simple quiz which we administered to 246 physicians at two major academic hospitals, on which the proportion of incorrect responses exceeded 90%. A solid understanding of the fundamental concepts of probability theory is becoming essential to the rational interpretation of medical information. This essay provides a technically sound review of these concepts that is accessible to a medical audience. We also briefly review the debate in the cognitive sciences regarding physicians' aptitude for probabilistic inference

Data from: Assessing changes in functional connectivity in a desert bighorn sheep metapopulation after two generations

Determining how species move across complex and fragmented landscapes and interact with human-made barriers is a major research focus in conservation. Studies estimating functional connectivity from movement, dispersal, or gene flow usually rely on a single study period, and rarely consider variation over time. We contrasted genetic structure and gene flow across barriers for a metapopulation of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) using genotypes collected 2000–2003 and 2013–2015. Based on the recently observed but unexpected spread of a respiratory pathogen across an interstate highway previously identified as a barrier to gene flow, we hypothesized that bighorn sheep changed how they interacted with that barrier, and that shifts in metapopulation structure influenced gene flow, genetic diversity, and connectivity. Population assignment tests, genetic structure, and genetic recapture demonstrated that bighorn sheep crossed the interstate highway in at least one location in 2013-2015, sharply reducing genetic structure between two populations, but supported conclusions of an earlier study that such crossings were very infrequent or unknown in 2000-2003. A recently expanded population established new links and caused decreases in genetic structure among multiple populations. Genetic diversity showed only slight increases in populations linked by new connections. Genetic structure and assignments revealed other previously undetected changes in movements and distribution, but much was consistent. Thus, we observed changes in both structural and functional connectivity over just two generations, but only in specific locations. Movement patterns of species should be revisited periodically to enable informed management, particularly in dynamic and fragmented systems

Genetic Variation in the 6p22.3 Gene DTNBP1, the Human Ortholog of the Mouse Dysbindin Gene, Is Associated with Schizophrenia

Prior evidence has supported the existence of multiple susceptibility genes for schizophrenia. Multipoint linkage analysis of the 270 Irish high-density pedigrees that we have studied, as well as results from several other samples, suggest that at least one such gene is located in region 6p24-21. In the present study, family-based association analysis of 36 simple sequence-length–polymorphism markers and of 17 SNP markers implicated two regions, separated by ∼7 Mb. The first region, and the focus of this report, is 6p22.3. In this region, single-nucleotide polymorphisms within the 140-kb gene DTNBP1 (dystrobrevin-binding protein 1, or dysbindin) are strongly associated with schizophrenia. Uncorrected, empirical P values produced by the program TRANSMIT were significant (P<.01) for a number of individual SNP markers, and most remained significant when the data were restricted to include only one affected offspring per nuclear family per extended pedigree; multiple three-marker haplotypes were highly significant (P=.008–.0001) under the restricted conditions. The pattern of linkage disequilibrium is consistent with the presence of more than one susceptibility allele, but this important issue is unresolved. The number of markers tested in the adjacent genes, all of which are negative, is not sufficient to rule out the possibility that the dysbindin gene is not the actual susceptibility gene, but this possibility appears to be very unlikely. We conclude that further investigation of dysbindin is warranted