An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate Arctic surface air temperature anomalies

Time series of global and regional mean Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies and Simple Kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Non-interpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic

Homogenization of daily temperature and humidity series in the UK

Building on previous experience with continental and global data sets, we use a quantile-matching approach to homogenize temperature and humidity series measured by a network of 220 stations in the United Kingdom (UK). The data set spans 160 years at daily resolution, although data coverage varies greatly in time, space, and across variables. We use the homogenized data to analyse trends of the mean values as well as the lowest and highest quantiles of the distribution over the last 100 and 50 years. For the latter period, we find large regional differences, particularly between the southeastern and the northern part of the UK. The southeast has seen a faster warming, particularly for maximum temperatures in spring and summer, and a reduction of relative humidity; the northern mainland has become more humid and only slightly warmer. These differences become more evident for the highest quantiles and reflect a well-known pattern of climate change affecting the extra-tropics. Among the studied variables, the increases of wet bulb temperature and specific humidity are the most spatially homogeneous and are statistically significant for most stations in all seasons except winter

An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000–1849

This paper describes a global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset for the period 1000 – 1849, which can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric model simulations. The reconstruction is based on existing coarse-resolution annual temperature ensemble reconstructions, which are then augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability. The intra-annual component of HadISST.2.0 and oceanic indices estimated from the reconstructed annual mean are used to develop grid-based linear regressions in a monthly stratified approach. Similarly, we reconstruct SIC using analog resampling of HadISST.2.0 SIC (1941 – 2000), for both hemispheres. Analogs are pooled in four seasons, comprising of 3-months each. The best analogs are selected based on the correlation between each member of the reconstructed SST and its target. For the period 1780 to 1849, we assimilate historical observations of SST and night-time marine air temperature from the ICOADS dataset into our reconstruction using an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter approach. The resulting dataset is physically consistent with information from models, proxies, and observations

A co-registration investigation of inter-word spacing and parafoveal preview: Eye movements and fixation-related potentials

Participants’ eye movements (EMs) and EEG signal were simultaneously recorded to examine foveal and parafoveal processing during sentence reading. All the words in the sentence were manipulated for inter-word spacing (intact spaces vs. spaces replaced by a random letter) and parafoveal preview (identical preview vs. random letter string preview). We observed disruption for unspaced text and invalid preview conditions in both EMs and fixation-related potentials (FRPs). Unspaced and invalid preview conditions received longer reading times than spaced and valid preview conditions. In addition, the FRP data showed that unspaced previews disrupted reading in earlier time windows of analysis, compared to string preview conditions. Moreover, the effect of parafoveal preview was greater for spaced relative to unspaced conditions, in both EMs and FRPs. These findings replicate well-established preview effects, provide novel insight into the neural correlates of reading with and without inter-word spacing and suggest that spatial selection precedes lexical processing

Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1981 for climate applications

A climate data record of global sea surface temperature (SST) spanning 1981–2016 has been developed from 4 × 10^12 satellite measurements of thermal infra-red radiance. The spatial area represented by pixel SST estimates is between 1 km^2 and 45 km^2. The mean density of good-quality observations is 13 km^−2 yr^−1. SST uncertainty is evaluated per datum, the median uncertainty for pixel SSTs being 0.18 K. Multi-annual observational stability relative to drifting buoy measurements is within 0.003 K yr^−1 of zero with high confidence, despite maximal independence from in situ SSTs over the latter two decades of the record. Data are provided at native resolution, gridded at 0.05° latitude-longitude resolution (individual sensors), and aggregated and gap-filled on a daily 0.05° grid. Skin SSTs, depth-adjusted SSTs de-aliased with respect to the diurnal cycle, and SST anomalies are provided. Target applications of the dataset include: climate and ocean model evaluation; quantification of marine change and variability (including marine heatwaves); climate and ocean-atmosphere processes; and specific applications in ocean ecology, oceanography and geophysics

A systematic analysis of the human immune response to Plasmodium vivax

Background. The biology of Plasmodium vivax is markedly different from that of P. falciparum; how this shapes the immune response to infection remains unclear. To address this shortfall, we inoculated human volunteers with a clonal field isolate of P. vivax and tracked their response through infection and convalescence. Methods. Participants were injected intravenously with blood-stage parasites and infection dynamics were tracked in real time by quantitative PCR. Whole blood samples were used for high dimensional protein analysis, RNA sequencing, and cytometry by time of flight, and temporal changes in the host response to P. vivax were quantified by linear regression. Comparative analyses with P. falciparum were then undertaken using analogous data sets derived from prior controlled human malaria infection studies. Results. P. vivax rapidly induced a type I inflammatory response that coincided with hallmark features of clinical malaria. This acute-phase response shared remarkable overlap with that induced by P. falciparum but was significantly elevated (at RNA and protein levels), leading to an increased incidence of pyrexia. In contrast, T cell activation and terminal differentiation were significantly increased in volunteers infected with P. falciparum. Heterogeneous CD4+ T cells were found to dominate this adaptive response and phenotypic analysis revealed unexpected features normally associated with cytotoxicity and autoinflammatory disease. Conclusion. P. vivax triggers increased systemic interferon signaling (cf P. falciparum), which likely explains its reduced pyrogenic threshold. In contrast, P. falciparum drives T cell activation far in excess of P. vivax, which may partially explain why falciparum malaria more frequently causes severe disease. Trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03797989. Funding. The European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, the Wellcome Trust, and the Royal Society

An adaptive agent model for analysing co-evolution of management and policies in a complex rangeland system

This paper describes an adaptive agent model of rangelands based on concepts of complex adaptive systems. The behavioural and biological processes of pastoralists, regulators, livestock, grass and shrubs are modelled as well as the interactions between these components. The evolution of the rangeland system is studied under different policy and institutional regimes that affect the behaviour and learning of pastoralists, and hence the state of the ecological system. Adaptive agent models show that effective learning and effective ecosystem management do not necessarily coincide and can suggest potentially useful alternatives to the design of policies and institutions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V

Observing requirements for long-term climate records at the ocean surface

Observations of conditions at the ocean surface have been made for centuries, contributing to some of the longest instrumental records of climate change. Most prominent is the climate data record (CDR) of sea surface temperature (SST), which is itself essential to the majority of activities in climate science and climate service provision. A much wider range of surface marine observations is available however, providing a rich source of data on past climate. We present a general error model describing the characteristics of observations used for the construction of climate records, illustrating the importance of multi-variate records with rich metadata for reducing uncertainty in CDRs. We describe the data and metadata requirements for the construction of stable, multi-century marine CDRs for variables important for describing the changing climate: SST, mean sea level pressure, air temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and waves. Available sources of surface marine data are reviewed in the context of the error model. We outline the need for a range of complementary observations, including very high quality observations at a limited number of locations and also observations that sample more broadly but with greater uncertainty. We describe how high-resolution modern records, particularly those of high-quality, can help to improve the quality of observations throughout the historical record. We recommend the extension of internationally-coordinated data management and curation to observation types that do not have a primary focus of the construction of climate records. Also recommended is reprocessing the existing surface marine climate archive to improve and quantify data and metadata quality and homogeneity. We also recommend the expansion of observations from research vessels and high quality moorings, routine observations from ships and from data and metadata rescue. Other priorities include: field evaluation of sensors; resources for the process of establishing user requirements and determining whether requirements are being met; and research to estimate uncertainty, quantify biases and to improve methods of construction of CDRs. The requirements developed in this paper encompass specific actions involving a variety of stakeholders, including funding agencies, scientists, data managers, observing network operators, satellite agencies, and international co-ordination bodies

Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1980 for climate applications

A 42-year climate data record of global sea surface temperature (SST) covering 1980 to 2021 has been produced from satellite observations, with a high degree of independence from in situ measurements. Observations from twenty infrared and two microwave radiometers are used, and are adjusted for their differing times of day of measurement to avoid aliasing and ensure observational stability. A total of 1.5 × 1013 locations are processed, yielding 1.4 × 1012 SST observations deemed to be suitable for climate applications. The corresponding observation density varies from less than 1 km−2 yr−1 in 1980 to over 100 km−2 yr−1 after 2007. Data are provided at their native resolution, averaged on a global 0.05° latitude-longitude grid (single-sensor with gaps), and as a daily, merged, gap-free, SST analysis at 0.05°. The data include the satellite-based SSTs, the corresponding time-and-depth standardised estimates, their standard uncertainty and quality flags. Accuracy, spatial coverage and length of record are all improved relative to a previous version, and the timeseries is routinely extended in time using consistent methods