Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: A big data time series analysis

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this record.Background: Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future. Methods: Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism's time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001-2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables. Results: Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm). Conclusions: The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified.Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)National Institute of Health Research (NIHR

Body image concerns: levels, correlates and gender differences among students in the United Kingdom

AIMS: This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the socio-demographic, lifestyle and well-being variables that are associated with body image concerns (BIC) and whether these associations differed between female and male students.\ud METHODS:\ud A cross-sectional survey; 3,706 undergraduate students (2,699 females, 765 males) from seven universities in the UK completed a self-administered questionnaire that assessed socio-demographic, lifestyle, well-being and BIC based on the Body Shape Questionnaire developed by Cooper et al. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis examined the odds ratios for the association between four increasing levels of BIC as the dependent variables (no BIC, mild BIC, moderate BIC and marked BIC) on the one hand, and the socio-demographic (gender, age, year at university), lifestyle (physical activity, nutrition) and mental well-being variables (quality of life, perceived stress, perceived health, depressive symptoms) on the other.\ud RESULTS:\ud More females (35%) than males (8%) reported being moderately or markedly concerned with their body image. For both genders, BIC was associated with a higher level of depressive symptoms and to variable extents, with nutrition and year at university. Females' BICs were exclusively associated with low perceived health, higher perceived stress, studies in general as a stressor, and low physical activity. In contrast, males' BIC were found to be exclusively associated with low quality of life and with older age.\ud CONCLUSIONS:\ud Health promoting strategies and activities should address the co-occurrence of depressive symptoms and BIC and should moreover pay attention to the gender-specific correlates of BIC for tailoring evidence based interventions for females and for males

Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather.

BACKGROUND: The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases. METHODS: Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods. RESULTS: The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19

Beyond climate change and health: Integrating broader environmental change and natural environments for public health protection and promotion in the UK

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of "critical friends" has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.The research was funded in part by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office (HPRU-2012-10016); the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the MEDMI Project (MR/K019341/1, https: //www.data-mashup.org.uk); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Project (ES/P011489/1); and the NIHR Knowledge Mobilisation Research Fellowship for Maguire

Elucidating the aetiology of human Campylobacter coli infections

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

Background: To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Methods: Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient’s specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient’s residence and the laboratory. Results: There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall. Conclusion: The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory

The role of clathrin in post-golgi trafficking in toxoplasma gondii

Apicomplexan parasites are single eukaryotic cells with a highly polarised secretory system that contains unique secretory organelles (micronemes and rhoptries) that are required for host cell invasion. In contrast, the role of the endosomal system is poorly understood in these parasites. With many typical endocytic factors missing, we speculated that endocytosis depends exclusively on a clathrin-mediated mechanism. Intriguingly, in Toxoplasma gondii we were only able to observe the endogenous clathrin heavy chain 1 (CHC1) at the Golgi, but not at the parasite surface. For the functional characterisation of Toxoplasma gondii CHC1 we generated parasite mutants conditionally expressing the dominant negative clathrin Hub fragment and demonstrate that CHC1 is essential for vesicle formation at the trans-Golgi network. Consequently, the functional ablation of CHC1 results in Golgi aberrations, a block in the biogenesis of the unique secretory microneme and rhoptry organelles, and of the pellicle. However, we found no morphological evidence for clathrin mediating endocytosis in these parasites and speculate that they remodelled their vesicular trafficking system to adapt to an intracellular lifestyle

Effects of MDM2, MDM4 and TP53 Codon 72 Polymorphisms on Cancer Risk in a Cohort Study of Carriers of TP53 Germline Mutations

Previous studies have shown that MDM2 SNP309 and p53 codon 72 have modifier effects on germline P53 mutations, but those studies relied on case-only studies with small sample sizes. The impact of MDM4 polymorphism on tumor onset in germline mutation carriers has not previously been studied.We analyzed 213 p53 germline mutation carriers including 168(78.9%) affected with cancer and 174 who had genotypic data. We analyzed time to first cancer using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods, comparing risks according to polymorphism genotypes. For MDM2 SNP309, a significant difference of 9.0 years in the average age of cancer diagnosis was observed between GG/GT and TT carriers (18.6 versus 27.6 years, P = 0.0087). The hazards ratio was 1.58 (P = 0.03) comparing risks among individuals with GG/GT to risk among TT, but this effect was only significant in females (HR = 1.60, P = 0.02). Compared to other genotypes, P53 codon 72 PP homozygotes had a 2.24 times (P = 0.03) higher rate for time to develop cancer. We observed a multiplicative joint effect of MDM2 and p53 codon72 polymorphism on risk. The MDM4 polymorphism had no significant effects.Our results suggest that the MDM2 SNP309 G allele is associated with cancer risk in p53 germline mutation carriers and accelerates time to cancer onset with a pronounced effect in females. A multiplicative joint effect exists between the MDM2 SNP309 G allele and the p53 codon 72 G allele in the risk of cancer development. Our results further define cancer risk in carriers of germline p53 mutations

Electrophysiological Evidence for Spatiotemporal Flexibility in the Ventrolateral Attention Network

Successful completion of many everyday tasks depends on interactions between voluntary attention, which acts to maintain current goals, and reflexive attention, which enables responding to unexpected events by interrupting the current focus of attention. Past studies, which have mostly examined each attentional mechanism in isolation, indicate that volitional and reflexive orienting depend on two functionally specialized cortical networks in the human brain. Here we investigated how the interplay between these two cortical networks affects sensory processing and the resulting overt behavior. By combining measurements of human performance and electrocortical recordings with a novel analytical technique for estimating spatiotemporal activity in the human cortex, we found that the subregions that comprise the reflexive ventrolateral attention network dissociate both spatially and temporally as a function of the nature of the sensory information and current task demands. Moreover, we found that together with the magnitude of the early sensory gain, the spatiotemporal neural dynamics accounted for the high amount of the variance in the behavioral data. Collectively these data support the conclusion that the ventrolateral attention network is recruited flexibly to support complex behaviors

Seasonality and the effects of weather on Campylobacter infections

Background Campylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. The weather factors that influence spatial and seasonal distributions are not fully understood. Methods To investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on Campylobacter infections in England and Wales, cases of Campylobacter were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcodes in the 30 days before the specimen date. Methods for investigation included a comparative conditional incidence, wavelet, clustering, and time series analyses. Results The increase of Campylobacter infections in the late spring was significantly linked to temperature two weeks before, with an increase in conditional incidence of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship to temperature was not linear. Generalized structural time series model revealed that changes in temperature accounted for 33.3% of the expected cases of Campylobacteriosis, with an indication of the direction and relevant temperature range. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle with additional harmonics at four and six months. Cluster analysis showed three clusters of seasonality with geographic similarities representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas. Conclusions The association of Campylobacteriosis with temperature is likely to be indirect. High-resolution spatial temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving weather associations with infectious diseases. The primary driver of Campylobacter incidence remains to be determined; other avenues, such as insect contamination of chicken flocks through poor biosecurity should be explored