The Challenge of Flexible Intelligence for Models of Human Behavior

Game theoretic predictions about equilibrium behavior depend upon assumptions of inflexibility of belief, of accord between belief and choice, and of choice across situations that share a game-theoretic structure. However, researchers rarely possess any knowledge of the actual beliefs of subjects, and rarely compare how a subject behaves in settings that share game-theoretic structure but that differ in other respects. Our within-subject experiments utilize a belief elicitation mechanism, roughly similar to a prediction market, in a laboratory setting to identify subjects’ beliefs about other subjects’ choices and beliefs. These experiments additionally allow us to compare choices in different settings that have similar game-theoretic structure. We find first, as have others,that subjects’ choices in the Trust and related games are significantly different from the strategies that derive from subgame perfect Nash equilibrium principles. We show that, for individual subjects, there is considerable flexibility of choice and belief across similar tasks and that the relationship between belief and choice is similarly flexible. To improve our ability to predict human behavior, we must take account of the flexible nature of human belief and choice

Essays in Valuation

This Ph.D. dissertation studies corporate finance, with a focus on valuations in corporate transactions. The first chapter investigates whether venture capitalists strategically price financing rounds so as to improve interim returns ahead of fundraising events. We find that when a venture capitalist is investing within a firm already within their portfolio immediately prior to a fundraising event, the financing rounds have abnormally high step ups in valuation and that the returns from such rounds are predictably lower. This pattern is not explained by deal or investor characteristics, and is stronger when multiple VCs within the syndicate have aligned incentives or are tightly networked. Our results bring into question the veracity of portfolio valuations based upon investing round pricing, as fundraising pressure may lead venture capitalists to strategically price deals. Within the second chapter, we investigate the paradoxical nature of venture capital as an asset class characterised by significant volatility and the modal price change from one round to the next being 0% (a “flat round”). Further, the proportion of financing rounds with a return of 0% is discontinuous relative to those receiving marginal increases or decreases in price, suggesting such financing rounds have significantly different characteristics relative to other rounds. We find evidence that when compared to a matched sample of financing rounds, rounds with 0% returns have lower future returns, are smaller in size, and are smaller than previous rounds of the same firm. We find evidence that rounds with 0% returns are more likely when previous rounds contain anti-dilution provisions. Such results are consistent with strategic mispricing to avoid the costs incurred by a decrease in firm valuation. The third chapter examines the role of valuation information in Australian public merger and acquisition deals utilising the release of Independent Expert Reports. The information within this report has significant consequences for deal outcomes, with the lower end of the valuation range appearing to function as a reserve price from the perspective of the target firm. I find the responses of both target firms and acquiring firms are consistent with this interpretation. Such effects appear to be independent of the information environment of the target firm, and are consistent regardless of whether the report was voluntary or required. The ability to engage independent third parties to accurately assess valuations may be a potential policy change to mitigate the valuation issues that arise in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2

Quantifying the Toxicity of 1-Methylnaphthalene to the Shallow-Water Coral, Porites divaricata, for Use in the Target Lipid Model

The proximity of coral reefs to coastal urban areas and shipping lanes predisposes corals to petroleum pollution from multiple sources. Previous research has evaluated petroleum toxicity to coral using a variety of methodologies, including monitoring effects of acute and chronic spills, in situ exposures, and ex situ exposures with both adult and larval stage corals. Variability in toxicant, bioassay conditions, species and other methodological disparities among studies prevents comprehensive conclusions regarding the toxicity of hydrocarbons to corals. This research evaluated the 48-hour toxicity of 1-methylnaphthalene to Porites divaricata using a continuous-flow passive dosing system. The range-finding exposure evaluated the dosing protocol and verified the effectiveness of the passive dosing technique at maintaining exposure concentrations. The full-toxicity exposures resulted in a precise estimate of toxic threshold concentrations for use in the target lipid model. The target lipid model promoted comparisons across different species by calculating the critical target lipid body burden of 355.7 µmol/ g lipid for P. divaricata. This indicates a greater resilience to petroleum hydrocarbon exposure compared to other species for which these data are available

The development of new biocatalytic reactions for organic synthesis

This lecture will describe recent work from our laboratory aimed at developing new biocatalysts for enantioselective organic synthesis, with emphasis on the design of in vitro and in vivo cascade processes for generating chiral pharmaceutical building blocks. By applying the principles of ‘biocatalytic retrosynthesis’ we have shown that it is increasingly possible to design new synthetic routes to target molecules in which biocatalysts are used in the key bond forming steps [1]. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

Understanding the Toxicity of Single Hydrocarbons, Oil, and Dispersed Oil: A Species Sensitivity Assessment for Five Atlantic Coral Species

Coral reefs are keystone coastal ecosystems that are at risk of exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons from a range of sources, including oil spill incidents and chronic runoff, and are usually one of the highest valued natural resources for protection in Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA)/Spill Impact Mitigation Assessment (SIMA) of response methods and environmental damage. Previous research evaluating hydrocarbon impacts to corals has resulted in no clear characterization of sensitivity, as work has generally focused on higher-level effects, compounded by significant variability in experimental methodology. This represents an important knowledge gap in oil spill preparedness and response as it relates to the potential impact of oil spills to the coral animal and its symbiotic zooxanthellae. This research was designed to address this gap, using a standardized toxicity testing protocol to evaluate effects of the petroleum/dispersant system the Atlantic shallow-water coral species Acropora cervicornis, Porites astreoides, Siderastera siderea, Stephanocoenia intersepta, and Solenastrea bournoni. The central objective of the Coral-Tox project was to provide lethal and sub-lethal endpoints of hydrocarbon exposure for five key Atlantic coral species in order to support effective decision-making and response should a spill occur near coral reefs. The relative sensitivity of these scleractinian coral species to hydrocarbon exposure was assessed with 48-h assays using 1-methylnaphthalene, phenanthrene, and toluene, as well as non-dispersed and chemically dispersed MC252 crude oil. Effects were evaluated based on physical coral condition, mortality, photosynthetic efficiency, growth rate, and gene expression. While the threatened species A. cervicornis is the most sensitive of those tested, the acute endpoints for the single-compound tests, and the oil and chemically dispersed oil exposures indicated that corals are comparatively more resilient to narcotic chemical exposure than other coastal marine species, possibly due to the lipid-rich nature of coral tissue and their ability to secrete mucus. Typically, mortality is used to compare the effects of contaminants, but sublethal impacts are necessary for assessing impacts of petroleum spills in the environment, particularly when evaluating the relative effects of a spill to different ecosystem components included in a NEBA/SIMA. Gene expression results were used to evaluate effects of the contaminants at levels below the onset of observable physiological changes or lethality. Identifying impact pathways of hydrocarbon exposure to corals from the genomic to organismal levels provides a framework for the prediction of oil impacts on the coral animal, significantly improving model inputs to predict the effects of spill responses in coastal tropical environments

Dark Tetrad at Work: Perceived Severity of Bullying, Harassment and Workplace Deviance.

Although the Dark Tetrad has been linked to deviant behaviors, more research is needed about its expression in workplaces and continuity outside of work. The current study investigated the role of the antagonistic traits on perception of workplace harassment and bullying. Men were found to score higher on antagonistic traits and have a more lenient perception of harassment and bullying. Personality traits at work and outside were highly correlated. Regression analyses revealed that sadism predicted a more lenient perception of bullying, whilst a more lenient perception of harassment was predicted by sadism and industry type, and partially by psychopathy and gender. In summary, personality traits enduring across environments, but sadism was the most important predictor of a more lenient perception of harassment and bullying at work. The current study suggests a disparity between personality traits and expressed behaviors. Findings can be used to prevent workplace deviance and aid recruitment processes

SHEEP: The Search for the High Energy Extragalactic Population

We present the SHEEP survey for serendipitously-detected hard X-ray sources in ASCA GIS images. In a survey area of $\sim 40$ deg$^{2}$, 69 sources were detected in the 5-10 keV band to a limiting flux of $\sim 10^{-13}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The number counts agree with those obtained by the similar BeppoSAX HELLAS survey, and both are in close agreement with ASCA and BeppoSAX 2-10 keV surveys. Spectral analysis of the SHEEP sample reveals that the 2-10 and 5-10 keV surveys do not sample the same populations, however, as we find considerably harder spectra, with an average $\Gamma\sim1.0$ assuming no absorption. The implication is that the agreement in the number counts is coincidental, with the 5-10 keV surveys gaining approximately as many hard sources as they lose soft ones, when compared to the 2-10 keV surveys. This is hard to reconcile with standard AGN ``population synthesis'' models for the X-ray background, which posit the existence of a large population of absorbed sources. We find no evidence of the population hardening at faint fluxes, with the exception that the few very brightest objects are anomalously soft. 53 of the SHEEP sources have been covered by ROSAT in the pointed phase. Of these 32 were detected. An additional 3 were detected in the RASS. As expected the sources detected with ROSAT are systematically softer than those detected with ASCA alone, and of the sample as a whole (truncated).Comment: 36 pages, 7 figs, to appear in Ap