Prospectus, May 6, 1998

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1998/1015/thumbnail.jp

A Difference-in-Differences Approach to Assess the Effect of a Heat Action Plan on Heat-Related Mortality, and Differences in Effectiveness According to Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Status (Montreal, Quebec).

BackgroundThe impact of heat waves on mortality and health inequalities is well documented. Very few studies have assessed the effectiveness of heat action plans (HAPs) on health, and none has used quasi-experimental methods to estimate causal effects of such programs.ObjectivesWe developed a quasi-experimental method to estimate the causal effects associated with HAPs that allows the identification of heterogeneity across subpopulations, and to apply this method specifically to the case of the Montreal (Quebec, Canada) HAP.MethodsA difference-in-differences approach was undertaken using Montreal death registry data for the summers of 2000-2007 to assess the effectiveness of the Montreal HAP, implemented in 2004, on mortality. To study equity in the effect of HAP implementation, we assessed whether the program effects were heterogeneous across sex (male vs. female), age (≥ 65 years vs. < 65 years), and neighborhood education levels (first vs. third tertile). We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess the validity of the estimated causal effect of the HAP program.ResultsWe found evidence that the HAP contributed to reducing mortality on hot days, and that the mortality reduction attributable to the program was greater for elderly people and people living in low-education neighborhoods.ConclusionThese findings show promise for programs aimed at reducing the impact of extreme temperatures and health inequities. We propose a new quasi-experimental approach that can be easily applied to evaluate the impact of any program or intervention triggered when daily thresholds are reached. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Bailey Z, Kaiser D, Auger N, King N, Kaufman J. 2016. A difference-in-differences approach to assess the effect of a heat action plan on heat-related mortality, and differences in effectiveness according to sex, age, and socioeconomic status (Montreal, Quebec). Environ Health Perspect 124:1694-1699; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP203

All-year vehicle simulation with analysis of capacity control of R-134a and R-744 piston compressors for coach HVAC systems

The reheating of cooled air is the state-of-the-art for controlling the air-side cooling capacity in conventional omnibus HVAC systems. This method is pragmatic, albeit highly energy-inefficient. This paper deals with the structured analysis and improvement of capacity regulation for a conventional system using the example of a coach air conditioning system. Piston compressors are typically used in the air conditioning systems for conventional buses. This compressor type belongs to the group of reciprocating compressors and is a common standard in the constant displacement version for large refrigerant systems in the omnibus sector. The compressor is usually driven directly by the internal combustion engine, which is typically realized by using a V-belt and magnetic clutch. Due to the mechanical connection to the engine and the constant compressor displacement, different control strategies are necessary to realize the required variable cooling capacity. These strategies may influence each other resulting in operating conditions with varying degrees of efficiency depending on the application and refrigerant choice. This leads to the main objectives in this paper: Identifying energy-efficient methods of adapting the capacity of reciprocating piston compressors with a constant displacement volume for air conditioning systems in conventional coaches and identifying energy-saving potentials for different refrigerants and application scenarios. For this purpose, the techniques currently being used in series production for implementing capacity adaption in omnibus air conditioning systems were initially described and the procedures such as cycling-clutch operation and cylinder (bank) shutdown were explained. Subsequently, unestablished and novel methods like speed control by means of pulley transmission and continuously variable transmission (CVT), were presented. Systems were identified using a combination of established and newer methods, and the shift in performance, performance control potentials and the impact on total energy consumption were analyzed. For this purpose, a complete physical vehicle model of a coach was developed and validated. The overall model was split into the following subsystems: driving and environmental conditions as boundary conditions, driving dynamics, bus interior, refrigeration cycle, climate controller, engine cooling and heating cycle and electrical system. Special emphasis was placed on the detailed model of the air conditioning system. Monthly representative simulations for two different refrigerants (R‑134a, R‑744) and three climatically different route and journey scenarios (Germany, Portugal/Spain and India) were analysed and compared with a reference system for a conventional coach. Maximum and average annual fuel saving potentials were identified for various methods of adapting the compressor\u27s transport capacity and identifying the most efficient methods for continuous capacity control in omnibus air conditioning systems. Depending on the application and the refrigerant used, the saving potentials in primary energy were between 2.5% and 6.8% based on one year

Supervoid Origin of the Cold Spot in the Cosmic Microwave Background

We use a WISE-2MASS-Pan-STARRS1 galaxy catalog to search for a supervoid in the direction of the Cosmic Microwave Background Cold Spot. We obtain photometric redshifts using our multicolor data set to create a tomographic map of the galaxy distribution. The radial density profile centred on the Cold Spot shows a large low density region, extending over 10's of degrees. Motivated by previous Cosmic Microwave Background results, we test for underdensities within two angular radii, $5^\circ$, and $15^\circ$. Our data, combined with an earlier measurement by Granett et al 2010, are consistent with a large $R_{\rm void}=(192 \pm 15)h^{-1} Mpc$ $(2\sigma)$ supervoid with $\delta \simeq -0.13 \pm 0.03$ centered at $z=0.22\pm0.01$. Such a supervoid, constituting a $\sim3.5 \sigma$ fluctuation in the $\Lambda CDM$ model, is a plausible cause for the Cold Spot.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, Proceedings of IAU 306 Symposium: Statistical Challenges in 21st Century Cosmolog

apoB/apoA-I Ratio and Lp(a) Associations With Aortic Valve Stenosis Incidence: Insights From the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.

Background Apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio and lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) are associated with aortic valve stenosis (AVS) disease progression. Clinical characteristics such as age, sex, and presence of concomitant coronary artery disease may strongly modify these associations; however, these effects have not been well defined in longitudinal studies. We set out to assess these associations between apoB/apoA-I ratio, Lp(a), and AVS incidence in a large population study. Methods and Results We analyzed data from 17 745 participants (mean age, 59.2±9.1 years; men, 44.9%) in the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer in Norfolk Prospective Population Study) population study in whom apoB/apoA-I and Lp(a) levels were measured. Participants were identified as having incident AVS if they were hospitalized or died with AVS as an underlying cause. After a median follow-up of 19.8 years (17.9-21.0 years) there were 403 (2.2%) incident cases of AVS. The hazard ratio for AVS risk was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.19-1.41; P50 mg/dL) remained an independent risk factor for AVS after adjustment for age, sex, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and concomitant coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.33-2.19 [P<0.001]). Conclusions In this population study, apoB/apoA-I ratio was associated with risk of AVS incidence, especially in younger and female participants and those without concomitant coronary artery disease. Lp(a) was an independent risk factor for AVS incidence. Interventional trials are needed to investigate whether modulating apoB/apoA-I or lowering Lp(a) can prevent or slow down AVS

Seasonal variability of sediment controls of nitrogen cycling in an agricultural stream

Agricultural streams receive large inputs of nutrients, such as nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+), which impact water quality and stream health. Streambed sediments are hotspots of biogeochemical reactivity, characterised by high rates of nutrient attenuation and denitrification. High concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O) previously observed in stream sediments point to incomplete denitrification, with sediments acting as a potentially significant source of global N2O. We investigated the effect of sediment type and seasonal variation on denitrification and N2O production in the streambed of an agricultural UK stream. Denitrification was strongly controlled by sediment type, with sand-dominated sediments exhibiting potential rates of denitrification almost 10 times higher than those observed in gravel-dominated sediments (0.026 ± 0.004 N2O–N μg g−1 h−1 for sand-dominated and 0.003 ± 0.003 N2O–N μg g−1 h−1 for gravel-dominated). In-situ measurements supported this finding, with higher concentrations of NO3−, nitrite (NO2−) and N2O observed in the porewaters of gravel-dominated sediments. Denitrification varied substantially between seasons, with denitrification increasing from winter to autumn. Our results indicate highest NO3− reduction occurred in sand-dominated sediments whilst highest N2O concentrations occurred in gravel-dominated sediments. This suggests that finer-grained streambeds could play an important role in removing excess nitrogen from agricultural catchments without producing excess N2O

Generating Synthetic Clinical Data that Capture Class Imbalanced Distributions with Generative Adversarial Networks: Example using Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV

Clinical data usually cannot be freely distributed due to their highly confidential nature and this hampers the development of machine learning in the healthcare domain. One way to mitigate this problem is by generating realistic synthetic datasets using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are known to suffer from mode collapse thus creating outputs of low diversity. This lowers the quality of the synthetic healthcare data, and may cause it to omit patients of minority demographics or neglect less common clinical practices. In this paper, we extend the classic GAN setup with an additional variational autoencoder (VAE) and include an external memory to replay latent features observed from the real samples to the GAN generator. Using antiretroviral therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (ART for HIV) as a case study, we show that our extended setup overcomes mode collapse and generates a synthetic dataset that accurately describes severely imbalanced class distributions commonly found in real-world clinical variables. In addition, we demonstrate that our synthetic dataset is associated with a very low patient disclosure risk, and that it retains a high level of utility from the ground truth dataset to support the development of downstream machine learning algorithms.Comment: In the near future, we will make our codes and synthetic datasets publicly available to facilitate future research. Follow us on https://healthgym.ai