Learning Tasks for Multitask Learning: Heterogenous Patient Populations in the ICU

Machine learning approaches have been effective in predicting adverse outcomes in different clinical settings. These models are often developed and evaluated on datasets with heterogeneous patient populations. However, good predictive performance on the aggregate population does not imply good performance for specific groups. In this work, we present a two-step framework to 1) learn relevant patient subgroups, and 2) predict an outcome for separate patient populations in a multi-task framework, where each population is a separate task. We demonstrate how to discover relevant groups in an unsupervised way with a sequence-to-sequence autoencoder. We show that using these groups in a multi-task framework leads to better predictive performance of in-hospital mortality both across groups and overall. We also highlight the need for more granular evaluation of performance when dealing with heterogeneous populations.Comment: KDD 201

Combining indoor residual spraying with chlorfenapyr and long-lasting insecticidal bed nets for improved control of pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae: an experimental hut trial in Benin.

BACKGROUND: Neither indoor residual spraying (IRS) nor long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are able to fully interrupt transmission in holoendemic Africa as single interventions. The combining of IRS and LLINs presents an opportunity for improved control and management of pyrethroid resistance through the simultaneous presentation of unrelated insecticides. METHOD: Chlorfenapyr IRS and a pyrethroid-impregnated polyester LLIN (WHO approved) were tested separately and together in experimental huts in southern Benin against pyrethroid resistant Anopheles gambiae and Culex quinquefasciatus. The bed nets were deliberately holed with either six or 80 holes to examine the effect of increasing wear and tear on protectiveness. Anopheles gambiae were genotyped for the kdr gene to assess the combination's potential to prevent the selection of pyrethroid resistance. RESULTS: The frequency of kdr was 84%. The overall mortality rates of An. gambiae were 37% and 49% with the six-hole and 80-hole LLINs, respectively, and reached 57% with chlorfenapyr IRS. Overall mortality rates were significantly higher with the combination treatments (82-83%) than with the LLIN or IRS individual treatments. Blood feeding (mosquito biting) rates were lowest with the 6-hole LLIN (12%), intermediate with the 80-hole LLIN (32%) and highest with untreated nets (56% with the 6-hole and 54% with the 80-hole nets). Blood feeding (biting) rates and repellency of mosquitoes with the combination of LLIN and chlorfenapyr IRS showed significant improvement compared to the IRS treatment but did not differ from the LLIN treatments indicating that the LLINs were the primary agents of personal protection. The combination killed significantly higher proportions of Cx. quinquefasciatus (51%, 41%) than the LLIN (15%, 13%) or IRS (32%) treatments. CONCLUSION: The chlorfenapyr IRS component was largely responsible for controlling pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes and the LLIN component was largely responsible for blood feeding inhibition and personal protection. Together, the combination shows potential to provide additional levels of transmission control and personal protection against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes, thereby justifying the additional resources required. Chlorfenapyr has potential to manage pyrethroid resistance in the context of an expanding LLIN/IRS strategy

Assessing the Sustainability of Different Small-Scale Livestock Production Systems in the Afar Region, Ethiopia

This research article published by MDPI, 2013Livestock production is a key income source in eastern Africa, and 80% of the total agricultural land is used for livestock herding. Hence, ecological and socio-economically sustainable rangeland management is crucial. Our study aimed at selecting operational economic, environmental and social sustainability indicators for three main pastoral (P), agro-pastoral (AP), and landless intensive (LI) small scale livestock production systems for use in sustainability assessment in Ethiopia. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected through grey literature and semi-structured interviews, assessing livestock and feed resources, production technology, land tenure, financial and gender issues. Our results suggested that feed shortages (FS) are directly related to grazing pressure (G) and inversely related to grass recovery rates (R). According to our indicators, AP was the most sustainable while P and LI were only conditionally sustainable production systems. 93% of 82 interviewees claimed that private land ownership was the best land tenure incentive for efficient rangeland management. Farmers perceived Prosopis juliflora expansion, sporadic rainfall, and disease infestation as the most significant causes for decreasing livestock productivity. Landless intensive farmers had the highest equality in income distribution (Gini Index: GI = 0.4), followed by P and AP (each with a GI = 0.5). Neither educational background nor income seemed to determine grazing species conservation efforts. We claimed that sustainability indicators are valuable tools to highlight shortcomings and strengths of the three main livestock production systems and help with future livestock management in Ethiopia. Selecting suitable indicators, however, is crucial as data requirements and availability can vary across livestock system

Comparative efficacy of two pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide nets (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) against pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors: a non-inferiority assessment

Background Pyrethroid-PBO nets were conditionally recommended for control of malaria transmitted by mosquitoes with oxidase-based pyrethroid-resistance based on epidemiological evidence of additional protective effect with Olyset Plus compared to a pyrethroid-only net (Olyset Net). Entomological studies can be used to assess the comparative performance of other brands of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to Olyset Plus. Methods An experimental hut trial was performed in Cové, Benin to compare PermaNet 3.0 (deltamethrin plus PBO on roof panel only) to Olyset Plus (permethrin plus PBO on all panels) against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Both nets were tested unwashed and after 20 standardized washes compared to Olyset Net. Laboratory bioassays were also performed to help explain findings in the experimental huts. Results With unwashed nets, mosquito mortality was higher in huts with PermaNet 3.0 compared to Olyset Plus (41% vs. 28%, P < 0.001). After 20 washes, mortality declined significantly with PermaNet 3.0 (41% unwashed vs. 17% after washing P < 0.001), but not with Olyset Plus (28% unwashed vs. 24% after washing P = 0.433); Olyset Plus induced significantly higher mortality than PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Net after 20 washes. PermaNet 3.0 showed a higher wash retention of PBO compared to Olyset Plus. A non-inferiority analysis performed with data from unwashed and washed nets together using a margin recommended by the WHO, showed that PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in terms of mosquito mortality (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 27% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.528, 95%CI = 1.02–2.29) but not in reducing mosquito feeding (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 30% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.192, 95%CI = 0.77–1.84). Both pyrethroid-PBO nets were superior to Olyset Net. Conclusion Olyset Plus outperformed PermaNet 3.0 in terms of its ability to cause greater margins of improved mosquito mortality compared to a standard pyrethroid net, after multiple standardized washes. However, using a margin of non-inferiority defined by the WHO, PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in inducing mosquito mortality. Considering the low levels of mortality observed and increasing pyrethroid-resistance in West Africa, it is unclear whether either of these nets would demonstrate the same epidemiological impact observed in community trials in East Africa

Developing consensus standard operating procedures (SOPs) to evaluate new types of insecticide-treated nets

In response to growing concerns over the sustained effectiveness of pyrethroid-only based control tools, new products are being developed and evaluated. Some examples of these are dual-active ingredient (AI) insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) which contain secondary insecticides, or syner-gist ITNs which contain insecticide synergist, both in combination with a pyrethroid. These net types are often termed 'next-generation' insecticide-treated nets. Several of these new types of ITNs are being evaluated in large-scale randomized control trials (RCTs) and pilot deployment schemes at a country level. However, no methods for measuring the biological durability of the AIs or synergists on these products are currently recommended. In this publication, we describe a pipeline used to collate and interrogate several different methods to produce a singular 'consensus standard operating procedure (SOP)', for monitoring the biological durability of three new types of ITNs: pyrethroid + piperonyl butoxide (PBO), pyrethroid + pyriproxyfen (PPF), and pyrethroid + chlorfenapyr (CFP). This process, convened under the auspices of the Innovation to Impact programme, sought to align methodologies used for conducting durability monitoring activities of next-generation ITNs. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Use of mechanical circulatory support devices among patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock

Importance: Mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices, including intravascular microaxial left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) and intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), are used in patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock despite limited evidence of their clinical benefit. Objective: To examine trends in the use of MCS devices among patients who underwent PCI for AMI with cardiogenic shock, hospital-level use variation, and factors associated with use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used the CathPCI and Chest Pain-MI Registries of the American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry. Patients who underwent PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock between October 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017, were identified from both registries. Data were analyzed from October 2018 to August 2020. Exposures: Therapies to provide hemodynamic support were categorized as intravascular microaxial LVAD, IABP, TandemHeart, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, LVAD, other devices, combined IABP and intravascular microaxial LVAD, combined IABP and other device (defined as TandemHeart, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, LVAD, or another MCS device), or medical therapy only. Main Outcomes and Measures: Use of MCS devices overall and specific MCS devices, including intravascular microaxial LVAD, at both patient and hospital levels and variables associated with use. Results: Among the 28 304 patients included in the study, the mean (SD) age was 65.4 (12.6) years and 18 968 were men (67.0%). The overall MCS device use was constant from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2017, although use of intravascular microaxial LVADs significantly increased (from 4.1% to 9.8%; P \u3c .001), whereas use of IABPs significantly decreased (from 34.8% to 30.0%; P \u3c .001). A significant hospital-level variation in MCS device use was found. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) proportion of patients who received MCS devices was 42% (30%-54%), and the median proportion of patients who received intravascular microaxial LVADs was 1% (0%-10%). In multivariable analyses, cardiac arrest at first medical contact or during hospitalization (odds ratio [OR], 1.82; 95% CI, 1.58-2.09) and severe left main and/or proximal left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.20-1.54) were patient characteristics that were associated with higher odds of receiving intravascular microaxial LVADs only compared with IABPs only. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that, among patients who underwent PCI for AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, overall use of MCS devices was constant, and a 2.5-fold increase in intravascular microaxial LVAD use was found along with a corresponding decrease in IABP use and a significant hospital-level variation in MCS device use. These trends were observed despite limited clinical trial evidence of improved outcomes associated with device use

Fine scale spatial investigation of multiple insecticide resistance and underlying target-site and metabolic mechanisms in Anopheles gambiae in central Côte d’Ivoire

Routine monitoring of occurrence, levels and mechanisms of insecticide resistance informs effective management strategies, and should be used to assess the effect of new tools on resistance. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial evaluating a novel insecticide-based intervention in central Côte d’Ivoire, we assessed resistance and its underlying mechanisms in Anopheles gambiae populations from a subset of trial villages. Resistance to multiple insecticides in An. gambiae s.s. and An. coluzzii was detected across villages, with dose–response assays demonstrating extremely high resistance intensity to the pyrethroid deltamethrin (> 1,500-fold), and mortality following exposure to pyrethroid-treated bednets was low (< 30% mortality in cone bioassays). The 1014F kdr mutation was almost fixed (≥ 90%) in all villages but the 1575Y kdr-amplifying mutation was relatively rare (< 15%). The carbamate and organophosphate resistance-associated Ace-1 G119S mutation was also detected at moderate frequencies (22–43%). Transcriptome analysis identified overexpression of P450 genes known to confer pyrethroid resistance (Cyp9K1, Cyp6P3, and Cyp6M2), and also a carboxylesterase (COEAE1F) as major candidates. Cyp6P3 expression was high but variable (up to 33-fold) and correlated positively with deltamethrin resistance intensity across villages (r2 = 0.78, P = 0.02). Tools and strategies to mitigate the extreme and multiple resistance provided by these mechanisms are required in this area to avoid future control failures

Mathematical Evaluation of Community Level Impact of Combining Bed Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying upon Malaria Transmission in Areas where the main Vectors are Anopheles Arabiensis Mosquitoes.

Indoor residual insecticide spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) are commonly used together even though evidence that such combinations confer greater protection against malaria than either method alone is inconsistent. A deterministic model of mosquito life cycle processes was adapted to allow parameterization with results from experimental hut trials of various combinations of untreated nets or LLINs (Olyset, PermaNet 2.0, Icon Life nets) with IRS (pirimiphos methyl, lambda cyhalothrin, DDT), in a setting where vector populations are dominated by Anopheles arabiensis, so that community level impact upon malaria transmission at high coverage could be predicted. Intact untreated nets alone provide equivalent personal protection to all three LLINs. Relative to IRS plus untreated nets, community level protection is slightly higher when Olyset or PermaNet 2.0 nets are added onto IRS with pirimiphos methyl or lambda cyhalothrin but not DDT, and when Icon Life nets supplement any of the IRS insecticides. Adding IRS onto any net modestly enhances communal protection when pirimiphos methyl is sprayed, while spraying lambda cyhalothrin enhances protection for untreated nets but not LLINs. Addition of DDT reduces communal protection when added to LLINs. Where transmission is mediated primarily by An. arabiensis, adding IRS to high LLIN coverage provides only modest incremental benefit (e.g. when an organophosphate like pirimiphos methyl is used), but can be redundant (e.g. when a pyrethroid like lambda cyhalothin is used) or even regressive (e.g. when DDT is used for the IRS). Relative to IRS plus untreated nets, supplementing IRS with LLINs will only modestly improve community protection. Beyond the physical protection that intact nets provide, additional protection against transmission by An. arabiensis conferred by insecticides will be remarkably small, regardless of whether they are delivered as LLINs or IRS. The insecticidal action of LLINs and IRS probably already approaches their absolute limit of potential impact upon this persistent vector so personal protection of nets should be enhanced by improving the physical integrity and durability. Combining LLINs and non-pyrethroid IRS in residual transmission systems may nevertheless be justified as a means to manage insecticide resistance and prevent potential rebound of not only An. arabiensis, but also more potent, vulnerable and historically important species such as Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus