NASA CA Operations Devolution: Status Update

What is Devolution? Devolution is a spreading of CA (Conjunction Assessment) operations responsibilities to mission FOTs (Flight Operations Teams): Permits efficiencies in handling the increased workload caused by Space Fence and large constellations; Missions given more flexibility in choosing specific approach to CA requirements that resonates best with their particular needs; CARA (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) retains Agency oversight through an established NASA Standard - will establish requirements for devolved CA preparations, processing, and operations conduct. Devolution is a PROPOSED paradigm under consideration by SMD (Space Missions Directorate): Number of activities required before Agency-level decision can be rendered; Agency requirements established via approved CA Standard; Operational experience testimony from two separate pilot programs; After these activities complete, decision will be made whether devolution is a feasible option for missions; CARA is recommending devolution to exist as an option for missions

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA)

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A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations

NASA SSA for Robotic Missions

This viewgraph presentation reviews NASA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) activities as preparation for robotic missions and Goddard's role in this work. The presentation includes the preparations that Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has made to provide consolidated space systems protection indluding consolidating GSFC support for Orbit Debris analysis, conjunction assessment and collision avoidance, commercial and foreign support, and protection of GSFC managed missions

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Approach

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Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years

NASA CA Operations Devolution to Individual Missions

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Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources

Lauri K. Newman

Senior Technical Manager, Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Program NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Code 590 V: 301-286-3155 C: 240-374-9146 F: 301-286-0365 e-mail: [email protected] Ms. Newman manages the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, which provides safety of flight services for NASA’s unmanned missions. She is also the Agency point of contact for Space Situational Awareness (SSA) for unmanned missions as part of the Agency’s Enterprise Protection Program. Previously, Ms. Newman spent 15 years as a Flight Dynamics Engineer, designing orbits and managing Flight Dynamics ground systems for a diverse set of spacecraft. She holds Masters and Bachelor of Science degrees in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Maryland, College Park.https://commons.erau.edu/stm-images/1125/thumbnail.jp