Hejduk, Matthew

Newman, Lauri k.

NASA Technical Reports Server

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
www.nasa.gov
NASA CARA
Lauri K. Newman
NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis
Matthew D. Hejduk
The Aerospace Corporation
May 2, 2018
NASA CA Operations Devolution
to Individual Missions
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180004055 2019-08-31T15:59:42+00:00Z
NASA CARA
Agenda
•Definition of devolution
•HQ/Science Mission Directorate (SMD) decision on devolution
•CARA devolution-related preparation activities
•Devolution current notional schedule information
•Mission devolution checklist
•Mission devolution survey
NASA CARA
What is Devolution?
•CARA met with Greg Robinson/Deputy Associate Administrator for Programs 
in NASA SMD on 22 FEB 2018 meeting as follow-up to an action taken at 
2017 PPBE
–As part of response, CARA proposed options for devolving CARA 
operations to missions
• Devolution is a spreading of CA operations responsibilities to mission FOTs
–Permits efficiencies in handling the increased workload caused by Space Fence 
and large constellations
–Missions given more flexibility in choosing specific approach to CA requirements 
that resonates best with their particular needs
–CARA retains Agency oversight through an established NASA Standard (e.g. 
training and tool certification)
–CARA retains SME expertise for Agency support
NASA CARA
Agency CA Ops Conduct:
Options
• Centralized CA operations
– Status quo approach:  data receipt, risk assessment, reporting, High Interest Event 
management, and maneuver recommendations all by CARA
• Partial devolution
– Ops devolution the standard, but CARA ops retained where devolution imprudent, 
undesirable, or not possible
– Missions approaching end of life
– Joint missions where CARA CA part of international agreement
• Full ops devolution, but with muster capability
– Routine operations fully devolved to missions, but CARA retains operational 
hardware and skeleton ops personnel as cold backup
• Hedge against changes in data availability/releasability or withdraw of industry capability
• Full ops devolution
– CARA activities refocused to analysis, tech development, policy, and 
DoD/Classified interface management roles
NASA CARA
Summary of SMD Devolution 
Decision
•SMD decision:  to pursue partial devolution now
–Plan for CARA to be ready for devolution by FY20
•SMD will have multiple opportunities to revisit/update this decision
–Following Users Forum survey results
–Following Pilot program(s)
–At each year’s PPBE
•Considerations that may impact full devolution option
–Foreign partners may require CA support under international agreements
–Missions close to end-of-life may not be well equipped for indigenous CA
–Missions may simply not wish to take on CA activities
NASA CARA
•CARA as SME to Agency for SSA
–Tech development for new methodologies/procedures
–General policy formation 
–Engaging with external organizations to further Agency goals
•Orbital Safety Analysts (OSAs) to be retained as part of CARA
–VAFB-resident NASA employees that expedite CA and provide services
–OSA role codified in interim CA guidance letter (June 2016)
•CARA as liaison manager to 18 SPCS/JSpOC (per NPR 8715.6b 2.7.1)
–Missions to have direct access to OSAs in support of regular ops CA functions per 
CARA-provided procedures
–CARA will oversee routine and conduct classified communications
Continuity of Key CARA Functions
NASA CARA
Devolution Preparation Activities
•Preparing for devolution requires preparation of many items:
–Development and coordination of CA Standard
–Development and coordination of CA Handbook
–Development of CONOPS for devolution, for both CARA and 
Missions (standard template tailored to each mission’s situation)
–CA training for missions
–Transfer of CARA stand-alone CA tools to missions that desire them
–Placement of essential CA algorithms and test cases into publicly-
accessible Software Development Kits (SDKs)
•Permits benchmarking of non-CARA CA tools
•Enables industry by making key CA algorithms publicly available
–RFI for commercially-available CA tools/services
–Execution of a Pilot program(s) for beta testing of the above items
NASA CARA
CA Standards/Guidelines
•In order to enable orbit regime protection under devolution, NASA 
Standard for CA operational conduct is needed
–Outlines roles and responsibilities, data flow, training requirements, 
tool validation approaches, risk assessment activities, and reporting 
requirements
–Written at conceptual level
•CA Handbook to provide actual compliance methods and 
threshold values—easier to modify as industry matures
•Goal is for Standard to be mission- and industry-friendly
•Presently in draft form (with accompanying handbook commentary)
–Under review and reformatting by GSFC Code 300 (SMA)
•Next step is to obtain CARA Management Advisory Board (CMAB) 
approval and enter formal staffing and notice process
–Hope is to have Standard approved close to beginning of FY19
NASA CARA
CA Handbook
•To facilitate responsible CA, collective wisdom of ten years of CA 
activities needs to be documented and transitioned to users
•NASA Handbook proper vehicle for this; topics include
–Introduction to and history of CA
–Review and technical explanation of major CA methods/algorithms, 
along with operational lessons learned and cautions
–Amplification of each section of CA Standard
–Actual CA required performance methods, levels, and thresholds
–Mission pre-launch, launch, and end-of-life activities/responsibilities
–Treatment of advanced concepts
•Draft version of Handbook planned for SEP 18
•Plan is to circulate technical portion publicly, to broader industry, to 
help new and established actors improve safety of flight
NASA CARA
•CONOPS for CARA
–Requires update for interaction with devolved missions
–Expected completion by 1 JUN, including OSA procedure updates
•CONOPS for missions
–Each devolving mission will require a CONOPS detailing implementation of the 
CA Standard for the particular mission
–To be written jointly between mission and CARA
–Includes the following items:
•Data flow, including reporting requirements
•Methodology/protocols for direct contact with OSAs at 18th SPCS
•Internal decision process and approach for Standard requirements compliance
•Selection of CA toolset or service and (if necessary) tool certification
•Training approach
CONOPS Development
NASA CARA
CA Training for Missions
•Updating CARA internal training program to be appropriate to missions
–Concept- rather than tool-based
–Distanced-learning paradigms
–Oral and written exam service available to missions for certification
•Beginner Training Program 
–Being offered as a trial run to ESMO (3 FOT participants) this June/July
•4 class times of 4 hours each
•Students read the material and take a quiz prior to attending class
•Class involves group discussion of quiz (to review any weak areas) 
and a group project
–Material available in SATERN June 2018; annual updates planned
•Advanced Training Program
–To be offered as part of bi-monthly Users’ Forum meetings
–Material will also be available in SATERN within the next year and will 
become part of formal training baseline
NASA CARA
CARA Tools to Missions
•CARA possesses a number of stand-alone tools that can be helpful to 
missions performing their own CA
–Maneuver Trade-Space (MTS) – helpful in selecting maneuvers
–Sensor Coverage – predicts future SSN tracking opportunities of objects, 
both theoretically and empirically
–Monte Carlo Workbench – performs Monte Carlo Pc calculation (from 
TCA) in equinoctial space, along with covariance repair
–Pc Uncertainty – produces PDF of Pc values to compare against threshold, 
modeling covariance and HBR uncertainty
•Presently being packaged and made available for circulation
•Effort underway to move CARA to GovCloud environment
–Possible deployment mechanism for difficult-to-circulate but 
potentially desirable services, such as Brute Force Monte Carlo
NASA CARA
CA Software Development Kits 
(SDKs)
•Method for packaging and distributing established CA algorithms for 
distribution to missions and industry
–Allows more rapid development of tools and thus more choices for missions; also 
seeds better safety of flight for industry
–Publicly available kits contain a reference conference paper, relevant test and 
validation cases, and MATLAB source code for main algorithm with simple driver
•Planned SDKs include 2-D Pc, 3-D Pc, OD Quality, Monte Carlo from TCA 
(equinoctial conversions), collision consequence, single-covariance Pc, and 
Pc Uncertainty
–Other functions seen as too basic to require SDK
•SDKs will be rolled out as ready, with first appearing early summer
–Must be fully coordinated with GSFC tech transfer office
–Routine updates envisioned for bug fixes and enhancements
NASA CARA
Commercial Tools RFI
•Released industry RFI in January 2017 for commercial CA tools and 
services
–Wanted to assess industry maturity and range of possibilities
•Evaluated seven vendors against essential and elaborate functions
–More vendors exist than chose to respond to RFI, but formal evaluation 
restricted to those choosing to respond
•Detailed evaluation results proprietary but can be discussed with 
mission civil servants or FFRDC support
•Bottom line:  multiple reasonable choices expected to be available by 
fall 2018
–Allows one year of tool/service selection, installation, and checkout before 
FY20 devolution preparation goal
NASA CARA
Pilot Program
•Pilot program will be run to beta test devolution paradigm, including:
–Ensuring all necessary procedures and tools are in place
–Identification, training, and certification of mission CA personnel
–Parallel operations (both tabletop and live ops conduct)
•Success criteria (to be spelled out specifically, but at high level):
–Presence of all above items (any CARA/mission disagreements 
resolved through dissenting opinion process)
–“Substantially equivalent” ops decisions (during parallel operations) 
from perspective of orbital regime protection
–Pilot results to be evaluated by CMAB for readiness to devolve
•Currently working with ESMO to execute a pilot
•Another mission that has not already begun its own CA operations 
will be selected for a follow-on pilot
NASA CARA
Devolution Schedule:  FY 2018
•ESMO pilot parallel ops period shortened somewhat due to extensive 
experience with present tool
•Certification for actual devolution contingent on draft Standard 
emerging from coordination without substantive changes that affect pilot
NASA CARA
Devolution Schedule:  FY 2019
•Presumes reasonable guidance in place (Standard, Handbook) to begin 
these processes in FY19
•Presumes missions can arrange themselves in groups that result in similar 
documents and activities
•Amount of actual workload required variable based on mission choices, so 
difficult to estimate number of missions devolvable in a given timeframe
NASA CARA
Next Steps
•Complete mission devolution survey (next slide)
•Feel free to send additional comments via email to CARA or your HQ PE
•Economies of scale can be realized if missions participate as groups
–Gets more missions into a devolved status in the fastest way possible
–Cheaper for all if use same tools/procedures
–Negotiations are needed but take time, so may be beneficial to initiate discussions 
now
•CARA will need to limit number of missions/groups of similar missions that 
can be devolved at a time due to limited resources
–Prioritization can be accomplished by SMD
NASA CARA
Mission Devolution Survey
•Survey will be circulated following this meeting seeking mission views 
on and response to devolution
–Desired by SMD in tendering future devolution-related decisions
•Online version crafted to receive basic information in standardized way
–However, amplifying comments, sent by e-mail, would be very helpful for 
process; please respond in this way if desired
•CARA devolution PoC is Joe Rosa (joseph.d.rosa@nasa.gov)


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