Atmospheric sampling of Supertyphoon Mireille with NASA DC-8 aircraft on September 27,1991, during PEM-West A

The DC-8 mission of September 27, 1991, was designed to sample air flowing into Typhoon Mireille in the boundary layer, air in the upper tropospheric eye region, and air emerging from the typhoon and ahead of the system, also in the upper troposphere. The objective was to find how a typhoon redistributes trace constituents in the West Pacific region and whether any such redistribution is important on the global scale. The boundary layer air (300 m), in a region to the SE of the eye, contained low mixing ratios of the tracer species O3, CO, C2H6, C2H2, C3H8, C6H6and CS2 but high values of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The eye region relative to the boundary layer, showed somewhat elevated levels of CO, substantially increased levels of O3, CS2 and all nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), and somewhat reduced levels of DMS. Ahead of the eye, CO and the NMHCs remained unchanged, O3 and CS2 showed a modest decrease, and DMS showed a substantial decrease. There was no evidence from lidar cross sections of ozone for the downward entrainment of stratospheric air into the eye region; these sections show that low ozone values were measured in the troposphere. The DMS data suggest substantial entrainment of boundary layer air into the system, particularly into the eye wall region. Estimates of the DMS sulphur flux between the boundary layer and the free troposphere, based on computations of velocity potential and divergent winds, gave values of about 69 μg S m−2 d−1 averaged over a 17.5° grid square encompassing the typhoon. A few hours after sampling with the DC-8, Mireille passed over Oki Island, just to the north of Japan, producing surface values of ozone of 5.5 ppbv. These O3 levels are consistent with the low tropospheric values found by lidar and are more typical of equatorial regions. We suggest that the central eye region may act like a Taylor column which has moved poleward from low latitudes. The high-altitude photochemical environment within Typhoon Mireille was found to be quite active as evidenced by significant levels of measured gas phase H2O2 and CH3OOH and model-computed levels of OH

Ice surface changes during recent glacial cycles along the Jutulstraumen and Penck Trough ice streams in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Reconstructing past ice-sheet surface changes is key to testing and improving ice-sheet models. Data constraining the past behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet are sparse, limiting our understanding of its response to past, present and future climate change. Here, we report the first cosmogenic multi-nuclide (10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) data from bedrock and erratics on nunataks along the Jutulstraumen and Penck Trough ice streams in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Spanning elevations between 741 and 2394 m above sea level, the samples have apparent exposure ages between 2 ka and 5 Ma. The highest-elevation bedrock sample indicates (near-) continuous minimum exposure since the Pliocene, with a low apparent erosion rate of 0.15 ± 0.03 m Ma−1, which is similar to results from eastern Dronning Maud Land. In contrast to studies in eastern Dronning Maud Land, however, our data show clear indications of a thicker-than-present ice sheet within the last glacial cycle, with a thinning of ∼35–120 m during the Holocene (∼2–11 ka). Difficulties in separating suitable amounts of quartz from the often quartz-poor rock-types in the area, and cosmogenic nuclides inherited from exposure prior to the last deglaciation, prevented robust thinning estimates from elevational profiles. Nevertheless, the results clearly demonstrate ice-surface fluctuations of several hundred meters between the current grounding line and the edge of the polar plateau for the last glacial cycle, a constraint that should be considered in future ice-sheet model simulations

Cost-Effective Strategies for Mitigating a Future Influenza Pandemic with H1N1 2009 Characteristics

Background: We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to$777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses. Conclusion: The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severit

Geographically touring the eastern bloc: British geography, travel cultures and the Cold War

This paper considers the role of travel in the generation of geographical knowledge of the eastern bloc by British geographers. Based on oral history and surveys of published work, the paper examines the roles of three kinds of travel experience: individual private travels, tours via state tourist agencies, and tours by academic delegations. Examples are drawn from across the eastern bloc, including the USSR, Poland, Romania, East Germany and Albania. The relationship between travel and publication is addressed, notably within textbooks, and in the Geographical Magazine. The study argues for the extension of accounts of cultures of geographical travel, and seeks to supplement the existing historiography of Cold War geography

Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Background. Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures. Methods. We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks. Results. The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia. Conclusions. The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks

Human papillomavirus prevalence among indigenous and non-indigenous Australian women prior to a national HPV vaccination program

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Indigenous women in Australia have a disproportionate burden of cervical cancer despite a national cervical screening program. Prior to introduction of a national human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination program, we determined HPV genotype prevalence by Indigenous status and residence in remote areas.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We recruited women aged 17 to 40 years presenting to community-based primary health services for routine Pap screening across Australia. A liquid-based cytology (LBC) cervical specimen was tested for HPV DNA using the AMPLICOR HPV-DNA test and a PGMY09/11-based HPV consensus PCR; positive specimens were typed by reverse hybridization. We calculated age-adjusted prevalence by weighting to relevant population data, and determined predictors of HPV-DNA positivity by age, Indigenous status and area of residence using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 2152 women (655 Indigenous), prevalence of the high-risk HPV genotypes was similar for Indigenous and non-Indigenous women (HPV 16 was 9.4% and 10.5%, respectively; HPV 18 was 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively), and did not differ by age group. In younger age groups, the prevalence of other genotypes also did not differ, but in those aged 31 to 40 years, HPV prevalence was higher for Indigenous women (35% versus 22.5%; <it>P </it>< 0.001), specifically HPV clades α5 (OR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.3) and α7, excluding type 18 (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.3). In multivariate analysis, detection of any HPV genotype was strongly associated with smoking and Pap-test abnormalities, with both risk factors more common among Indigenous women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although we found no difference in the prevalence of HPV16/18 among Australian women by Indigenous status or, for Indigenous women, residence in remote regions, differences were found in the prevalence of risk factors and some other HPV genotypes. This reinforces the importance of cervical screening as a complement to vaccination for all women, and the value of baseline data on HPV genotype prevalence by Indigenous status and residence for the monitoring of vaccine impact.</p

The effects of pulmonary rehabilitation in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis is characterised by sputum production, exercise limitation and recurrent infections. Although pulmonary rehabilitation is advocated for this patient group, its effects are unclear. The aims of this study are to determine the short and long term effects of pulmonary rehabilitation on exercise capacity, cough, quality of life and the incidence of acute pulmonary exacerbations. METHODS/DESIGN: This randomised controlled trial aims to recruit 64 patients with bronchiectasis from three tertiary institutions. Participants will be randomly allocated to the intervention group (supervised, twice weekly exercise training with regular review of airway clearance therapy) or a control group (twice weekly telephone support). Measurements will be taken at baseline, immediately following the intervention and at six and 12 months following the intervention period by a blinded assessor. Exercise capacity will be measured using the incremental shuttle walk test and the six-minute walk test. Quality of life and health status will be measured using the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire, Leicester Cough Questionnaire, Assessment of Quality of Life Questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. The rate of hospitalisation will be captured as well as the incidence of acute pulmonary exacerbations using a daily symptom diary. DISCUSSION: Results from this study will help to determine the efficacy of supervised twice-weekly pulmonary rehabilitation upon exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with bronchiectasis and will contribute to clinical practice guidelines for physiotherapists in the management of this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study protocol is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00885521)

Loneliness of Older Immigrant Groups in Canada: Effects of Ethnic-Cultural Background

This study aimed to explore the loneliness of several groups of older immigrants in Canadacompared to native-born older adults. Data from the Canadian General Social Survey, Cycle 22 (Nolder adults = 3,692) were used. The dependent variable is the 6 item De Jong Gierveld lonelinessscale. Determinants of loneliness included country of birth, ethnic background (cultural context);belongingness (community context) and social networks (social context). Results showed that onlysome immigrant groups are significantly lonelier than older adults born in Canada. Immigrants withsimilar language and culture are not lonelier; while those from countries that differ in nativelanguage/culture are significantly higher on loneliness. Multivariate analyses showed the importanceof cultural background, of composition of the network of relatives and friends, and of localparticipation and feelings of belonging to the Canadian society in explaining loneliness of olderimmigrants

Model Selection in Time Series Studies of Influenza-Associated Mortality

Background: Poisson regression modeling has been widely used to estimate influenza-associated disease burden, as it has the advantage of adjusting for multiple seasonal confounders. However, few studies have discussed how to judge the adequacy of confounding adjustment. This study aims to compare the performance of commonly adopted model selection criteria in terms of providing a reliable and valid estimate for the health impact of influenza. Methods: We assessed four model selection criteria: quasi Akaike information criterion (QAIC), quasi Bayesian information criterion (QBIC), partial autocorrelation functions of residuals (PACF), and generalized cross-validation (GCV), by separately applying them to select the Poisson model best fitted to the mortality datasets that were simulated under the different assumptions of seasonal confounding. The performance of these criteria was evaluated by the bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of estimates from the pre-determined coefficients of influenza proxy variable. These four criteria were subsequently applied to an empirical hospitalization dataset to confirm the findings of simulation study. Results: GCV consistently provided smaller biases and RMSEs for the influenza coefficient estimates than QAIC, QBIC and PACF, under the different simulation scenarios. Sensitivity analysis of different pre-determined influenza coefficients, study periods and lag weeks showed that GCV consistently outperformed the other criteria. Similar results were found in applying these selection criteria to estimate influenza-associated hospitalization. Conclusions: GCV criterion is recommended for selection of Poisson models to estimate influenza-associated mortality and morbidity burden with proper adjustment for confounding. These findings shall help standardize the Poisson modeling approach for influenza disease burden studies. © 2012 Wang et al.published_or_final_versio