Applied research by design: an experimental collaborative and interdisciplinary design charrette

This article reports on one experimental case of interdisciplinary collaboration on a design and planning exercise across several scales – local through urban to regional – and sectors – private, public, scholarly, and interest groups. The case is a collaborative and interdisciplinary design charrette on sustainable urbanism for envisioning the future of the Greater Metropolitan Area of Florence in Italy. The experiment entailed the attempt to integrate complex urban conditions via the design charrette in order to create more healthy and sustainable cities. This collaborative work shows how conditions that are at times not addressed comprehensively nor holistically can be combined through doing applied research by design; where design is understood as a process of discovery and creation that results in synthesis. The article details the methodology applied, and provides an initial assessment on the process that the charrette employed. Moreover, it highlights some professional and policy implications of the effort. Finally, it provides a provisional assessment on learning outcomes and addresses opportunities to improve future exercises of this nature

Genetic and Immune Predictors for Hypersensitivity Syndrome to Antiepileptic Drugs

Hypersensitivity syndrome reactions (HSR) to antiepileptic drugs (AED) are associated with severe clinical cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR).Our aims are: to assess HSRs to AEDs using the in vitro lymphocyte toxicity assay (LTA) in patients who manifested HSRs clinically, to correlate LTA results with the clinical syndrome, to correlate LTA results with the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele B*1502 (HLA-B*1502) positivity in a Han Chinese-Canadian population, and to determine the cytokine network in this population. HSR patients developed fever and cutaneous eruptions in the presence or absence of organ involvement within 8 weeks of exposure to carbamazepine (CBZ), phenytoin (PHY) or lamotrigine (LTG). Control patients received AEDs without presenting HSR. We investigated 10 CBZ-HSR (4 presented with Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS)), 24 CBZ-controls, 10 PHY-HSR (4 presented with drug-induced liver injury (DILI)), 24 PHY-controls, 6 LTG-HSR (1 SJS and 1 DILI) and 24 LTG-controls. There were 30 Han Chinese individuals (14 HSR patients and 16 controls) in our cohort. LTA toxicity greater than 12.5%±2.5% was considered positive. Differences among groups were determined by analysis of variance. In addition, we measured cytokine secretion in the patient sera between 1 month and 3 years after the event. All Han Chinese individuals and 30% of Caucasians were genotyped for HLA-B*1502.A perfect correlation (r=0.92) was observed between positive LTA and clinical diagnosis of DILI and SJS/toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN). HLA-B*1502 positivity in Han Chinese is a predictor of CBZ-HSR and PHY-HSR. HLA-B*1502-negative Han Chinese receiving only CBZ or a combination of CBZ-PHY tolerated the drug(s) clinically, presenting negative CBZ-LTA and PHY-LTA. However, 3 patients presenting negative CBZ-LTA and PHY-LTA, as well as negative HLA-B*1502, showed positive LTG-LTA (38%, 28% and 25%, respectively), implying that they should not be prescribed LTG. Three patients had LTA positive to both PHY and CBZ, and 3 others had LTA positive to both PHY and LTG. Clinically, all six patients presented HSR to both drugs that they tested positive to (cross-reactivity). Patients were grouped based on the clinical presentation of their symptoms as only rash and fever or a triad that characterizes "true" HSR (rash, fever and DILI or SJS/TEN). Levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines were significantly higher in patient sera compared to control sera. More specifically, the highest levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α was measured in patients presenting "true" HSR, as were the apoptotic markers Fas, caspase 8 activity and M30. We concluded that LTA is sensitive for DILI and SJS/TEN regardless of drug or ethnicity. HSR prediction will prevent AED-induced morbidity. In Han Chinese, HLA-B*1502 positivity is a predictor for CBZ-HSR and PHY-HSR. Its negativity does not predict a negative LTG-HSR. There is cross-reactivity between AEDs. Additionally, T-cell cytokines and chemokines control the pathogenesis of SJS/TEN and DILI, contributing to apoptotic processes in the liver and in the skin

The East-West Arc, Re-thinking Growth in the London Region

The East-West Arc spans 30 local councils comprising the growth corridor from Oxford through Milton Keynes and Northampton to Cambridge. Its population of over three million is the fastest growing region in the UK . It forms the northern fringe of the greater London city region to which it is profitably tied, just north of the Green Belt. History, knowledge, technology, agriculture and nature combine in a rich tapestry that has long contributed to the commonwealth of the United Kingdom. In a globalizing world where distances of all kinds are slashed, the Arc is more than a key part of the greater London region. It is a gateway north to the Midlands and the Northern Powerhouse. The Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge Gateway is one of the most innovative and dynamic areas of the UK. Its potential is recognised by the government as a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the region to become a ‘knowledge-intensive growth cluster, competing globally’. Yet that potential is capped by inadequate infrastructure and expensive housing, as well as ecological constraints. As HS2, along with the train and expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge become realities, this vital region can be seen better as a gateway in all directions, thus helping to rebalance growth across the UK. The day-long symposium on the East-West Arc held at the University of Westminster in June of 2018 addressed these challenges from a range of perspectives. Traversing the Arc from south to north is the proposed high-speed rail line HS2, as well as the planned east-west expressway and east-west rail line linking Oxford to Cambridge through Milton Keynes. These transport links, taken together, are intended to enhance connectivity, mobility and productivity across the region. This will further boost growth while presenting financing and environmental challenges along with its benefits. The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) report from 2017, Partnering for Prosperity: A new deal for the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc, set out one vision and approach to infrastructure-led development linked to place making. It also set out new thinking on the housing challenge in the region that is equivalent to a new city the size of Birmingham. Other impacts of growth also need to be addressed, such as last mile connectivity and multi-modal transport, social inequities, land consumption of agriculture and forests, greater flood risk, pollution, and loss of ecological function and integrity of historical region including its villages and towns. These are but a few of the impacts that need to be addressed by an assessment of growth scenarios and their impacts, in advance of the foreseen major infrastructure projects. Government has long recognised the strategic importance of the Arc, and not just to the region itself, comprised of three recently-formed regional growth boards in Milton Keynes, Oxford and Cambridge. Central to the Arc is its relationship to London, the west of England and the synergies with the Midlands and further north. This greater London Region contains the UK’s primary transport hubs and corridors, including the main north-south road and rail routes, together with key international gateways such as Heathrow and Birmingham airports and the seaports of Harwich, Felixstowe and the Thames Gateway in the east. While the long history of this greater region has unfolded piece meal, it is now interconnected into a functioning mega-region that needs a coherent strategy founded by cogent analysis. In this context, it is critical to envision the East-West Arc as gateway that enables in all directions, and not merely as a self-contained sub-region or as a northern fringe of London

Measuring cosmological bulk flows via the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in the upcoming cosmic microwave background maps

We propose a new method to measure the possible large-scale bulk flows in the Universe from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps from the upcoming missions, MAP and Planck. This can be done by studying the statistical properties of the CMB temperature field at many X-ray cluster positions. At each cluster position, the CMB temperature fluctuation will be a combination of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) kinematic and thermal components, the cosmological fluctuations and the instrument noise term. When averaged over many such clusters the last three will integrate down, whereas the first one will be dominated by a possible bulk flow component. In particular, we propose to use all-sky X-ray cluster catalogs that should (or could) be available soon from X-ray satellites, and then to evaluate the dipole component of the CMB field at the cluster positions. We show that for the MAP and Planck mission parameters the dominant contributions to the dipole will be from the terms due to the SZ kinematic effect produced by the bulk flow (the signal we seek) and the instrument noise (the noise in our signal). Computing then the expected signal-to-noise ratio for such measurement, we get that at the 95 % confidence level the bulk flows on scales >100h^{-1} Mpc can be probed down to the amplitude of $< 200$ km/sec with the MAP data and down to only 30 km/sec with the Planck mission.Comment: Astrophysical Journal Letters, in pres

On the identification of Dragon Kings among extreme-valued outliers

Abstract. Extreme values of earth, environmental, ecological, physical, biological, financial and other variables often form outliers to heavy tails of empirical frequency distributions. Quite commonly such tails are approximated by stretched exponential, log-normal or power functions. Recently there has been an interest in distinguishing between extreme-valued outliers that belong to the parent population of most data in a sample and those that do not. The first type, called Gray Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (often confused in the literature with Taleb's totally unknowable Black Swans), is drawn from a known distribution of the tails which can thus be extrapolated beyond the range of sampled values. However, the magnitudes and/or space–time locations of unsampled Gray Swans cannot be foretold. The second type of extreme-valued outliers, termed Dragon Kings by Didier Sornette, may in his view be sometimes predicted based on how other data in the sample behave. This intriguing prospect has recently motivated some authors to propose statistical tests capable of identifying Dragon Kings in a given random sample. Here we apply three such tests to log air permeability data measured on the faces of a Berea sandstone block and to synthetic data generated in a manner statistically consistent with these measurements. We interpret the measurements to be, and generate synthetic data that are, samples from α-stable sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). All these data have frequency distributions characterized by power-law tails with extreme-valued outliers about the tail edges

Extended power-law scaling of heavy-tailed random air-permeability fields in fractured and sedimentary rocks

Abstract. We analyze the scaling behaviors of two field-scale log permeability data sets showing heavy-tailed frequency distributions in three and two spatial dimensions, respectively. One set consists of 1-m scale pneumatic packer test data from six vertical and inclined boreholes spanning a decameters scale block of unsaturated fractured tuffs near Superior, Arizona, the other of pneumatic minipermeameter data measured at a spacing of 15 cm along three horizontal transects on a 21 m long and 6 m high outcrop of the Upper Cretaceous Straight Cliffs Formation, including lower-shoreface bioturbated and cross-bedded sandstone near Escalante, Utah. Order q sample structure functions of each data set scale as a power ξ(q) of separation scale or lag, s, over limited ranges of s. A procedure known as extended self-similarity (ESS) extends this range to all lags and yields a nonlinear (concave) functional relationship between ξ(q) and q. Whereas the literature tends to associate extended and nonlinear power-law scaling with multifractals or fractional Laplace motions, we have shown elsewhere that (a) ESS of data having a normal frequency distribution is theoretically consistent with (Gaussian) truncated (additive, self-affine, monofractal) fractional Brownian motion (tfBm), the latter being unique in predicting a breakdown in power-law scaling at small and large lags, and (b) nonlinear power-law scaling of data having either normal or heavy-tailed frequency distributions is consistent with samples from sub-Gaussian random fields or processes subordinated to tfBm or truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn), stemming from lack of ergodicity which causes sample moments to scale differently than do their ensemble counterparts. Here we (i) demonstrate that the above two data sets are consistent with sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to tfBm or tfGn and (ii) provide maximum likelihood estimates of parameters characterizing the corresponding Lévy stable subordinators and tfBm or tfGn functions

Extended power-law scaling of air permeabilities measured on a block of tuff

Abstract. We use three methods to identify power-law scaling of multi-scale log air permeability data collected by Tidwell and Wilson on the faces of a laboratory-scale block of Topopah Spring tuff: method of moments (M), Extended Self-Similarity (ESS) and a generalized version thereof (G-ESS). All three methods focus on q-th-order sample structure functions of absolute increments. Most such functions exhibit power-law scaling at best over a limited midrange of experimental separation scales, or lags, which are sometimes difficult to identify unambiguously by means of M. ESS and G-ESS extend this range in a way that renders power-law scaling easier to characterize. Our analysis confirms the superiority of ESS and G-ESS over M in identifying the scaling exponents, ξ(q), of corresponding structure functions of orders q, suggesting further that ESS is more reliable than G-ESS. The exponents vary in a nonlinear fashion with q as is typical of real or apparent multifractals. Our estimates of the Hurst scaling coefficient increase with support scale, implying a reduction in roughness (anti-persistence) of the log permeability field with measurement volume. The finding by Tidwell and Wilson that log permeabilities associated with all tip sizes can be characterized by stationary variogram models, coupled with our findings that log permeability increments associated with the smallest tip size are approximately Gaussian and those associated with all tip sizes scale show nonlinear variations in ξ(q) with q, are consistent with a view of these data as a sample from a truncated version (tfBm) of self-affine fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Since in theory the scaling exponents, ξ(q), of tfBm vary linearly with q we conclude that nonlinear scaling in our case is not an indication of multifractality but an artifact of sampling from tfBm. This allows us to explain theoretically how power-law scaling of our data, as well as of non-Gaussian heavy-tailed signals subordinated to tfBm, are extended by ESS. It further allows us to identify the functional form and estimate all parameters of the corresponding tfBm based on sample structure functions of first and second orders

The Natural Selection Game: Incorporating Active Learning in Evolution Curricula for General Biology

Teaching evolution in high school and in entry-level college courses can be challenging due to the inherent misinformation, misunderstanding, and biases with which students approach the topic. In this setting, it is critical to both teach the basic concepts and address common student misconceptions about evolution. We present two paired activities that allow students to (1) explore the processes of natural selection in a direct and experiential way and (2) address common misconceptions in evolutionary theory. The first activity, the “Natural Selection Game,” has students simulate a bird population and experience shifts in phenotype frequency as a result of selective pressures. Following the end of the game, students discuss the outcomes and connect them to real-life examples. The second activity encourages students to actively research common misconceptions with the use of personal technology in order to distinguish between scientifically supported data and poor information online. Both activities can be incorporated in high school and university-level general biology curricula. They will allow students to connect their firsthand experiences to lecture-based instruction and, as a result, develop a stronger understanding of the mechanisms of evolution

Statistics in focus: Population and social conditions. Social protection in Europe. 2000.15

As the first step for approaching the uniqueness and blowup properties of the solutions of the stochastic wave equations with multiplicative noise, we analyze the conditions for the uniqueness and blowup properties of the solution (Xt,Yt) of the equations dXt=Ytdt, dYt=|Xt|αdBt, (X0,Y0)=(x0,y0). In particular, we prove that solutions are nonunique if 01 and (x0,y0)≠(0,0)