Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet theyare inevitablyassociated withuncertainty.Identifying,quantifying,andcommunicatingthisuncertaintyis keytobothevaluatingtherisk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. Wereview howuncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employan approach developedin climatemodelling by breaking uncertainty down into(i) structural (model) uncertainty,(ii) initialization and internalvariabilityuncertainty,(iii)parametricuncertainty,and(iv)scenariouncertainty.Foreachuncertaintytype,wethenexaminethecurrent state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gainsontheseasonal-to-decadaltime-scale.Weconcludethatallpartsofmarinesciencecouldbenefitfromagreaterexchangeofideas,particularly concerningsuchauniversalproblemsuchasthetreatmentofuncertainty.Finally,marinescienceshouldstrivetoreachthepointwherescenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Prospective association between handgrip strength and cardiac structure and function in UK adults.

BACKGROUND: Handgrip strength, a measure of muscular fitness, is associated with cardiovascular (CV) events and CV mortality but its association with cardiac structure and function is unknown. The goal of this study was to determine if handgrip strength is associated with changes in cardiac structure and function in UK adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), end-diastolic volume (EDV), end-systolic volume (ESV), stroke volume (SV), mass (M), and mass-to-volume ratio (MVR) were measured in a sample of 4,654 participants of the UK Biobank Study 6.3 ± 1 years after baseline using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Handgrip strength was measured at baseline and at the imaging follow-up examination. We determined the association between handgrip strength at baseline as well as its change over time and each of the cardiac outcome parameters. After adjustment, higher level of handgrip strength at baseline was associated with higher LVEDV (difference per SD increase in handgrip strength: 1.3ml, 95% CI 0.1-2.4; p = 0.034), higher LVSV (1.0ml, 0.3-1.8; p = 0.006), lower LVM (-1.0g, -1.8 --0.3; p = 0.007), and lower LVMVR (-0.013g/ml, -0.018 --0.007; p<0.001). The association between handgrip strength and LVEDV and LVSV was strongest among younger individuals, while the association with LVM and LVMVR was strongest among older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Better handgrip strength was associated with cardiac structure and function in a pattern indicative of less cardiac hypertrophy and remodeling. These characteristics are known to be associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events

Validation of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance-Derived Equation for Predicted Left Ventricular Mass Using the UK Biobank Imaging Cohort: Tool for Donor-Recipient Size Matching.

BACKGROUND: Current guidance from International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation recommends using body weight for donor-recipient size matching for heart transplantation. However, recent studies have shown that predicted heart mass, using body weight, height, age, and sex, may represent a better method of size matching. We aim to validate a cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived equation for predicted left ventricular mass (LVM) in a cohort of normal individuals in the United Kingdom. METHODS: This observational study was conducted in 5065 middle-aged (44-77 years old) UK Biobank participants who underwent CMR imaging in 2014 to 2015. Individuals with cancer diagnosis in the previous 12 months or history of cardiovascular disease were excluded. Predicted LVM was calculated based on participants' sex, height, and weight recorded at the time of imaging. Correlation analyses were performed between the predicted LVM and the LVM obtained from manual contouring of CMR cine images. The analysis included 3398 participants (age 61.5±7.5 years, 47.8% males). RESULTS: Predicted LVM was considerably higher than CMR-derived LVM (mean±SD of 138.8±28.9 g versus 86.3±20.9 g). However, there was a strong correlation between the 2 measurements (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.802, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Predicted LVM calculated using a CMR-derived equation that incorporates height, weight, and sex has a strong correlation with CMR LVM in large cohort of normal individuals in the United Kingdom. Our findings suggest that predicted heart mass equations may be a valid tool for donor-recipient size matching for heart transplantation in the United Kingdom

Simplifying cardiovascular magnetic resonance pulse sequence terminology.

We propose a set of simplified terms to describe applied Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (CMR) pulse sequence techniques in clinical reports, scientific articles and societal guidelines or recommendations. Rather than using various technical details in clinical reports, the description of the technical approach should be based on the purpose of the pulse sequence. In scientific papers or other technical work, this should be followed by a more detailed description of the pulse sequence and settings. The use of a unified set of widely understood terms would facilitate the communication between referring physicians and CMR readers by increasing the clarity of CMR reports and thus improve overall patient care. Applied in research articles, its use would facilitate non-expert readers' understanding of the methodology used and its clinical meaning

Mass Spectrometry-Based (GeLC-MS/MS) Comparative Proteomic Analysis of Endoscopically (ePFT) Collected Pancreatic and Gastroduodenal Fluids

Objectives: The secretin-stimulated endoscopic pancreatic function test (ePFT) allows for the safe collection of gastroduodenal and pancreatic fluid from the duodenum. We test the hypothesis that these endoscopically collected fluids have different proteomes. As such, we aim to show that the ePFT method can be used to collect fluid enriched in pancreatic proteins to test for pancreatic function. Methods: Gastroduodenal and pancreatic fluid were collected sequentially from chronic pancreatitis patients undergoing an ePFT. Proteins from each fluid type were extracted using previously published optimized methods and subjected to GeLC-MS/MS analysis for protein identification and bioinformatics analysis. Results: Mass spectrometry analysis identified proteins that were exclusive in either gastroduodenal (46) or pancreatic fluid (234). Subsequent quantitative analysis revealed proteins that were differentially abundant with statistical significance. As expected, proteolytic enzymes and protease inhibitors were among the differentially detected proteins. The proteases pepsinogens and gastrin were enriched in gastroduodenal fluid, while common pancreatic enzymes (e.g., aminopeptidase N, chymotrypsin C, elastase-3A, trypsin, and carboxypeptidase A1, and elastase 2B) were found in greater abundance in pancreatic fluid. Similarly for protease inhibitors, members of the cystatin family were exclusive to gastroduodenal fluid, while serpins A11, B4, and D1 were exclusive to pancreatic fluid. Conclusions: We have shown that ePFT collection coupled with mass spectrometry can be used to identify differentially detected proteins in gastroduodenal and pancreatic fluids. The data obtained using GeLC-MS/MS techniques provide further evidence supporting the feasibility of using ePFT-collected fluid to study specific diseases of the upper gastrointestinal tract, such as chronic pancreatitis

Constraints on Nucleon Decay via "Invisible" Modes from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Data from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory have been used to constrain the lifetime for nucleon decay to ``invisible'' modes, such as n -> 3 nu. The analysis was based on a search for gamma-rays from the de-excitation of the residual nucleus that would result from the disappearance of either a proton or neutron from O16. A limit of tau_inv > 2 x 10^{29} years is obtained at 90% confidence for either neutron or proton decay modes. This is about an order of magnitude more stringent than previous constraints on invisible proton decay modes and 400 times more stringent than similar neutron modes.Comment: Update includes missing efficiency factor (limits change by factor of 2) Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Shortened Modified Look-Locker Inversion recovery (ShMOLLI) for clinical myocardial T1-mapping at 1.5 and 3 T within a 9 heartbeat breathhold

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>T1 mapping allows direct <it>in-vivo </it>quantitation of microscopic changes in the myocardium, providing new diagnostic insights into cardiac disease. Existing methods require long breath holds that are demanding for many cardiac patients. In this work we propose and validate a novel, clinically applicable, pulse sequence for myocardial T1-mapping that is compatible with typical limits for end-expiration breath-holding in patients.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>The Shortened MOdified Look-Locker Inversion recovery (ShMOLLI) method uses sequential inversion recovery measurements within a single short breath-hold. Full recovery of the longitudinal magnetisation between sequential inversion pulses is not achieved, but conditional interpretation of samples for reconstruction of T1-maps is used to yield accurate measurements, and this algorithm is implemented directly on the scanner. We performed computer simulations for 100 ms<T1 < 2.7 s and heart rates 40-100 bpm followed by phantom validation at 1.5T and 3T. <it>In-vivo </it>myocardial T1-mapping using this method and the previous gold-standard (MOLLI) was performed in 10 healthy volunteers at 1.5T and 3T, 4 volunteers with contrast injection at 1.5T, and 4 patients with recent myocardial infarction (MI) at 3T.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found good agreement between the average ShMOLLI and MOLLI estimates for T1 < 1200 ms. In contrast to the original method, ShMOLLI showed no dependence on heart rates for long T1 values, with estimates characterized by a constant 4% underestimation for T1 = 800-2700 ms. <it>In-vivo</it>, ShMOLLI measurements required 9.0 ± 1.1 s (MOLLI = 17.6 ± 2.9 s). Average healthy myocardial T1 s by ShMOLLI at 1.5T were 966 ± 48 ms (mean ± SD) and 1166 ± 60 ms at 3T. In MI patients, the T1 in unaffected myocardium (1216 ± 42 ms) was similar to controls at 3T. Ischemically injured myocardium showed increased T1 = 1432 ± 33 ms (p < 0.001). The difference between MI and remote myocardium was estimated 15% larger by ShMOLLI than MOLLI (p < 0.04) which suffers from heart rate dependencies for long T1. The <it>in-vivo </it>variability within ShMOLLI T1-maps was only 14% (1.5T) or 18% (3T) higher than the MOLLI maps, but the MOLLI acquisitions were twice longer than ShMOLLI acquisitions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ShMOLLI is an efficient method that generates immediate, high-resolution myocardial T1-maps in a short breath-hold with high precision. This technique provides a valuable clinically applicable tool for myocardial tissue characterisation.</p