APPLICATION OF MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS FOR CHRONIC DISEASES - INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND SITUATION IN BULGARIA

Disease management programs (DMPs) are successful in different regions of the world and there are possibilities for their application in Bulgaria. A retrospective approach is used in the analysis of 11 articles, for the period 2002 – 2011. The data shows that the disease management programs improve the coordination between the different participants in the system and ensure comprehensiveness and continuity of the health care and, at the same time, early diagnostics, therapy and rehabilitation.Disease management programs (DMPs) are successful in different regions of the world and there are possibilities for their application in Bulgaria. A retrospective approach is used in the analysis of 11 articles, for the period 2002 – 2011. The data shows that the disease management programs improve the coordination between the different participants in the system and ensure comprehensiveness and continuity of the health care and, at the same time, early diagnostics, therapy and rehabilitation

CHARACTERISTICS OF DIVERSIONS OF IMMUNOLOGIC INDEXES IN LUNG CANCER PATIENTS UNDERGOING COMPLEX TREATMENT

No abstrac

AN ATTEMPT AT NOSOLOGICAL AND ETIOLOGICAL DIARRHEA SYNDROME DECODING IN PATIENTS WITH PRESUMED ENTERAL INFECTION

No abstrac

Evaluation of bottom-up and top-down strategies for aggregated forecasts: state space models and arima applications

Abstract. In this research, we consider monthly series from the M4 competition to study the relative performance of top-down and bottom-up strategies by means of implementing forecast automation of state space and ARIMA models. For the bottomup strategy, the forecast for each series is developed individually and then these are combined to produce a cumulative forecast of the aggregated series. For the top-down strategy, the series or components values are first combined and then a single forecast is determined for the aggregated series. Based on our implementation, state space models showed a higher forecast performance when a top-down strategy is applied. ARIMA models had a higher forecast performance for the bottom-up strategy. For state space models the top-down strategy reduced the overall error significantly. ARIMA models showed to be more accurate when forecasts are first determined individually. As part of the development we also proposed an approach to improve the forecasting procedure of aggregation strategies

How Does Investors' Legal Protection Affect Productivity and Growth?

This paper analyzes the implications of investors' legal protection on aggregate productivity and growth. We have two main results. First, that better investors' legal protection can mitigate agency problems between investors and innovators and therefore expand the range of high-tech projects that can be financed by non-bank investors. Second, investors' legal protection shifts investment resources from less productive (medium-tech) to highly productive (high-tech) projects and therefore enhances economic growth. These results stem from two forces. On one hand, private investors' moral hazard problems (in which entrepreneurs shift investors' resources to their own benefit), and on the other hand innovators' risk of project termination by banks due to wrong signals about projects' probability of success. Our results are consistent with recent empirical studies that show a high correlation between legal investors' protection and the structure of the financial system as well as the economic performance at industry and macroeconomic levels