Approximation de la distribution a posteriori d'un modèle Gamma-Poisson hiérarchique à effets mixtes

La méthode que nous présentons pour modéliser des données dites de "comptage" ou données de Poisson est basée sur la procédure nommée Modélisation multi-niveau et interactive de la régression de Poisson (PRIMM) développée par Christiansen et Morris (1997). Dans la méthode PRIMM, la régression de Poisson ne comprend que des effets fixes tandis que notre modèle intègre en plus des effets aléatoires. De même que Christiansen et Morris (1997), le modèle étudié consiste à faire de l'inférence basée sur des approximations analytiques des distributions a posteriori des paramètres, évitant ainsi d'utiliser des méthodes computationnelles comme les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCMC). Les approximations sont basées sur la méthode de Laplace et la théorie asymptotique liée à l'approximation normale pour les lois a posteriori. L'estimation des paramètres de la régression de Poisson est faite par la maximisation de leur densité a posteriori via l'algorithme de Newton-Raphson. Cette étude détermine également les deux premiers moments a posteriori des paramètres de la loi de Poisson dont la distribution a posteriori de chacun d'eux est approximativement une loi gamma. Des applications sur deux exemples de données ont permis de vérifier que ce modèle peut être considéré dans une certaine mesure comme une généralisation de la méthode PRIMM. En effet, le modèle s'applique aussi bien aux données de Poisson non stratifiées qu'aux données stratifiées; et dans ce dernier cas, il comporte non seulement des effets fixes mais aussi des effets aléatoires liés aux strates. Enfin, le modèle est appliqué aux données relatives à plusieurs types d'effets indésirables observés chez les participants d'un essai clinique impliquant un vaccin quadrivalent contre la rougeole, les oreillons, la rub\'eole et la varicelle. La régression de Poisson comprend l'effet fixe correspondant à la variable traitement/contrôle, ainsi que des effets aléatoires liés aux systèmes biologiques du corps humain auxquels sont attribués les effets indésirables considérés.We propose a method for analysing count or Poisson data based on the procedure called Poisson Regression Interactive Multilevel Modeling (PRIMM) introduced by Christiansen and Morris (1997). The Poisson regression in the PRIMM method has fixed effects only, whereas our model incorporates random effects. As well as Christiansen and Morris (1997), the model studied aims at doing inference based on adequate analytical approximations of posterior distributions of the parameters. This avoids the use of computationally expensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The approximations are based on the Laplace's method and asymptotic theory. Estimates of Poisson mixed effects regression parameters are obtained through the maximization of their joint posterior density via the Newton-Raphson algorithm. This study also provides the first two posterior moments of the Poisson parameters involved. The posterior distributon of these parameters is approximated by a gamma distribution. Applications to two datasets show that our model can be somehow considered as a generalization of the PRIMM method since it also allows clustered count data. Finally, the model is applied to data involving many types of adverse events recorded by the participants of a drug clinical trial which involved a quadrivalent vaccine containing measles, mumps, rubella and varicella. The Poisson regression incorporates the fixed effect corresponding to the covariate treatment/control as well as a random effect associated with the biological system of the body affected by the adverse events

CrypticIBDcheck: An R Package For Checking Cryptic Relatedness In Nominally Unrelated Individuals

Background In population association studies, standard methods of statistical inference assume that study subjects are independent samples. In genetic association studies, it is therefore of interest to diagnose undocumented close relationships in nominally unrelated study samples. Results We describe the R package CrypticIBDcheck to identify pairs of closely-related subjects based on genetic marker data from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The package is able to accommodate SNPs in linkage disequibrium (LD), without the need to thin the markers so that they are approximately independent in the population. Sample pairs are identified by superposing their estimated identity-by-descent (IBD) coefficients on plots of IBD coefficients for pairs of simulated subjects from one of several common close relationships. Conclusions The methods implemented in CrypticIBDcheck are particularly relevant to candidate-gene association studies, in which dependent SNPs cluster in a relatively small number of genes spread throughout the genome. The accommodation of LD allows the use of all available genetic data, a desirable property when working with a modest number of dependent SNPs within candidate genes. CrypticIBDcheck is available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)

Approximate Posterior Inference for Multiple Testing using a Hierarchical Mixed-effect Poisson Regression Model

We present an approximate posterior inference  methodology for a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effect Poisson regression model. The model serves us to address the multiple testing problem in the presence of many group or cluster effects. This is carried out through a specialized Bayesian false discovery rate procedure. The likelihood is simplified by an approximation based on Laplace's approximation for integrals and a trace approximation for the determinants. The posterior marginals are estimated using this approximated likelihood. In particular, we obtain credible regions for the parameters, as well as probability estimates for the difference between risks (Poisson intensities) associated with different groups or clusters, or different levels of the fixed effects. The methodology is illustrated through an application to a vaccine trial