A preliminary investigation of solifluction macrofabrics

SummaryStatistical analysis of clast orientation in various parts of solifluction lobes demonstrates large departures from uniformity. Although concentration is not homogeneous, the clasts of all samples are strongly oriented parallel to the direction faced by the slope, and dip upslope. This pattern probably reflects operation of both flow and creep processes. Samples are coplanar after rotation of data into the plane of their respective local slopes, and this transformation is suggested as a precursor to statistical analysis in future studies. Three-dimensional fabric analysis is a useful tool for establishing the direction in which movement occurred within fossil solifluction deposits, but should be accompanied by other lines of evidence for establishing the origin of such deposits.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25798/1/0000360.pd

The Urban Heat Island in Winter at Barrow, Alaska

The village of Barrow, Alaska, is the northernmost settlement in the USA and the largest native community in the Arctic. The population has grown from about 300 residents in 1900 to more than 4600 in 2000. In recent decades, a general increase of mean annual and mean winter air temperature has been recorded near the centre of the village, and a concurrent trend of progressively earlier snowmelt in the village has been documented. Satellite observations and data from a nearby climate observatory indicate a corresponding but much weaker snowmelt trend in the surrounding regions of relatively undisturbed tundra. Because the region is underlain by ice-rich permafrost, there is concern that early snowmelt will increase the thickness of the thawed layer in summer and threaten the structural stability of roads, buildings, and pipelines. Here, we demonstrate the existence of a strong urban heat island (UHI) during winter. Data loggers (54) were installed in the ∼150 km2 study area to monitor hourly air and soil temperature, and daily spatial averages were calculated using the six or seven warmest and coldest sites. During winter (December 2001–March 2002), the urban area averaged 2.2 °C warmer than the hinterland. The strength of the UHI increased as the wind velocity decreased, reaching an average value of 3.2 °C under calm (s−1) conditions and maximum single-day magnitude of 6 °C. UHI magnitude generally increased with decreasing air temperature in winter, reflecting the input of anthropogenic heat to maintain interior building temperatures. On a daily basis, the UHI reached its peak intensity in the late evening and early morning. There was a strong positive relation between monthly UHI magnitude and natural gas production/use. Integrated over the period September–May, there was a 9% reduction in accumulated freezing degree days in the urban area. The evidence suggests that urbanization has contributed to early snowmelt in the village

The Path to Eliminating Raccoon Rabies in the Eastern US-Obstacles and Opportunities in Urban-Suburban Landscapes

Rabies in terrestrial wildlife poses a significant public and animal health threat. Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) targeting specific vector species has proven effective in eliminating certain rabies variants in Europe and Canada. The goal of eliminating the raccoon rabies variant (RRV) in the US is achievable through an integrated ORV program at the landscape scale. Current wildlife rabies management in the US includes extensive air and ground ORV programs in 16 eastern states coordinated by Wildlife Services (WS)’ National Rabies Management Program. More than 10 million vaccine-baits are distributed annually targeting raccoons (Procyon lotor) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) with the long-term goal of eliminating RRV. Achieving vaccine-induced herd immunity in target species in developed landscapes has proven challenging due to abundant anthropogenic food sources, higher wildlife densities, decreased home ranges, habitat fragmentation, and non-target bait competition. Effectively managing RRV in the urban-suburban landscape requires greater understanding of meso-carnivore ecology in these landscapes and critical analyses of current baiting strategies. Preliminary results from urban-suburban studies demonstrate fewer potential ORV bait encounters for target species than expected, lower seroconversion rates compared to rural habitats and patchy bait distribution patterns. New technologies including the use of Point of Interest GPS units to document ground bait distribution in combination with research conducted by WS including ORV field trials, urban density studies, and raccoon, skunk, and opossum (Didelphis virginiana) ecology have provided valuable insight to overcome the obstacles of urban rabies management and make eliminating RRV a reality

Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments

Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses.Peer reviewe

Review of US GO-SHIP (Global Oceans Shipboard Hydrographic Investigations Program) An OCB and US CLIVAR Report

The following document constitutes a review of the US GO-SHIP program, performed under the auspices of US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) and Ocean Carbon Biogeochemistry (OCB) Programs. It is the product of an external review committee, charged and assembled by US CLIVAR and OCB with members who represent the interests of the programs and who are independent of US GO-SHIP support, which spent several months gathering input and drafting this report. The purpose of the review is to assess program planning, progress, and opportunities in collecting, providing, and synthesizing high quality hydrographic data to advance the scientific research goals of US CLIVAR and OCB

Tobacco Smoking and Dementia in a Kentucky Cohort: A Competing Risk Analysis

Tobacco smoking was examined as a risk for dementia and neuropathological burden in 531 initially cognitively normal older adults followed longitudinally at the University of Kentucky’s Alzheimer’s Disease Center. The cohort was followed for an average of 11.5 years; 111 (20.9%) participants were diagnosed with dementia, while 242 (45.6%) died without dementia. At baseline, 49 (9.2%) participants reported current smoking (median pack-years = 47.3) and 231 (43.5%) former smoking (median pack-years = 24.5). The hazard ratio (HR) for dementia for former smokers versus never smokers based on the Cox model was 1.64 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.46), while the HR for current smokers versus never smokers was 1.20 (0.50, 2.87). However, the Fine-Gray model, which accounts for the competing risk of death without dementia, yielded a subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) = 1.21 (0.81, 1.80) for former and 0.70 (0.30, 1.64) for current smokers. In contrast, current smoking increased incidence of death without dementia (sHR = 2.38; 1.52, 3.72). All analyses were adjusted for baseline age, education, sex, diabetes, head injury, hypertension, overweight, APOE ɛ4, family history of dementia, and use of hormone replacement therapy. Once adjusted for the competing risk of death without dementia, smoking was not associated with incident dementia. This finding was supported by neuropathology on 302 of the participants

Changes in the 1963–2013 shallow ground thermal regime in Russian permafrost regions

Spatial variability and temporal trends of the shallow ground thermal regime and permafrost active-layer thickness (ALT) were estimated over 1963–2013 using daily soil temperature data available from stations of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the role of changing climatic conditions on the ground thermal regime. ALT data collected by the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring program in Russia were used to expand the geography of ALT observations over 1999–2013, and to identify ‘hot spots’ of soil temperature and ALT change. Results indicate that a substantially higher rate of change in the thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils prevailed during 1999–2013, relative to the last fifty years. Results indicate that the thermal regime of the upper permafrost in western Russia is strongly associated with air temperature, with much weaker relationships in central and eastern Russia. The thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils shows stronger dependence on climatic conditions over the last fifteen years relative to the historical 50-year period. Geostatistical analysis revealed that the cities of Norilsk and Susuman are hot spots of permafrost degradation. Of six settlements selected for detailed analysis in various parts of the permafrost regions, all but one (Chukotka), show substantial changes in the shallow ground thermal regime. Northern locations in the continuous permafrost region show thickening of the active layer, while those farther south experienced development of residual thaw layers above the permafrost and decreases in the duration of the freezing period

AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM IN THE WTO: THE ROAD AHEAD

Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. Trade barriers lower demand for trade partners' products, domestic subsidies can induce an oversupply of agricultural products which depresses world prices, and export subsidies create increased competition for producers in other countries. Eliminating global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of $56 billion. High protection for agricultural commodities in the form of tariffs continues to be the major factor restricting world trade. In 2000, World Trade Organization (WTO) members continued global negotiations on agricultural policy reform. To help policymakers and others realize what is at stake in the global agricultural negotiations, this report quantifies the costs of global agricultural distortions and the potential benefits of their full elimination. It also analyzes the effects on U.S. and world agriculture if only partial reform is achieved in liberalizing tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (limits on imported goods), domestic support, and export subsidies.Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,