Analysis of the time to sustained progression in Multiple Sclerosis using generalised linear and additive models

The course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is generally difficult to predict. This is due to the great inter-individual variability with respect to symptoms and disability status. An important prognostic endpoint for MS is the expected time to sustained disease progression. Using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) this endpoint is here defined as a rise of 1.0 or 0.5 compared to baseline EDSS (5.5) which is confirmed for at least six months. The goal of this paper was threefold. It aimed at identifying covariates which significantly influence sustained progression, determining size and form of the effect of these covariates and estimating the survival curves for given predictors. To this end a piecewise exponential model utilizing piecewise constant hazard rates and a Poisson model were devised. In order to improve and simplify these models a method for piecewise linear parameterization of non-parametric generalized additive models (GAMs) was applied. The models included fixed and random effects, the posterior distribution was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) as well as a penalized likelihood approach and variables were selected using Akaikes information criterium (AIC). The models were applied to data of placebo patients from worldwide clinical trials that are pooled in the database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR). Only with a pure exponential model and fixed effects, baseline EDSS and the number of relapses in the last 12 month before study entry had an effect on the hazard rate. For the piecewise exponential model with random study effects there was no effect of covariates on the hazard rate other than a slightly decreasing effect of time. This reflects the fact that unstable patients reach the event early and are therefore eliminated from the analysis (selection effect)

Study of V/STOL aircraft implementation. Volume 2: Appendices

An analysis of V/STOL aircraft implementation and utilization is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) short haul air transportation requirements, (2) available aircraft technology, (3) aircraft production requirements, (4) airport requirements, (5) roles and responsibilities, and (6) cost and funding

PDB3: USE OF BOOTSTRAP IN A COST-OF-ILLNESS STUDY TO DERIVE ACCURACY OF ESTIMATES

Farrando, Jordi;Febles, Maria Dolors ;Henrich, Jordi;Tarrasó, Olga ;Fuertes, J.C.;Pérez, S

Piezo-Polymer-Composite Unimorph Actuators for Active Cancellation of Flow Instabilities Across Airfoils

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.This article presents a smart device for active cancellation of flow instabilities. An array of two piezo unimorph actuators fabricated in piezo-polymer-composite technology is combined with a thin silicone membrane to mimic a movable wall with a closed surface. By locally displacing the thin membrane, a surface wave is generated that interferes with naturally occurring flow instabilities within the boundary layer of an airfoil. Using flow sensors and an intelligent control enables a destructive interference and therefore, an attenuation of natural flow instabilities. This leads to a delay of transition. The boundary layer remains laminar which means drag is reduced. Within the next pages, the setup of the device with actuators, membrane, sensors, and control is introduced. The main focus of this article is on actuator design, modeling, and implementation for wind tunnel experiments. Results of actuator characterization are presented. The non-linear behavior of the piezoactuator (harmonic distortions and impact of high electric fields) is investigated in detail. This study concludes with the results obtained in wind tunnel experiments which prove the functionality of the presented approach. A maximal attenuation of natural occurring flow instabilities of 80% is achieved.DFG, SPP 1207, Strömungsbeeinflussung in der Natur und Techni

Humanization of mathematical education for non-core pecialties

Работа посвящена вопросам гуманизации процесса преподавания высшей математики для непрофильных вузов. В качестве примера представлены фрагменты разработанного учебного пособия для лабораторных работ по курсу «Математика» для непрофильных специальностей в МГПУ.This paper addresses the humanization of higher mathematics teaching for non-core universities. As an example, presents fragments developed a training manual for laboratory work on the course "Mathematics" for non-core specialties in the Moscow State Pedagogical University

Grau de conhecimento e controle e hipertensão arterial de uma coorte ambulatorial de cardiopatas isquêmicos

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