Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

Starburst-driven Starbursts in the Heart of Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies

There is increasing evidence for the presence of blue super star clusters in the central regions of ultraluminous infrared galaxies like Arp 220. Ultraluminous galaxies are thought to be triggered by galaxy mergers, and it has often been argued that these super star clusters may form during violent collisions between gas clouds in the final phase of the mergers. We now investigate another set of models which differ from previous ones in that the formation of the super star clusters is linked directly to the very intense starburst occurring at the very center of the galaxy. Firstly we show that a scenario in which the super star clusters form in material compressed by shock waves originating from the central starburst is implausible because the objects so produced are much smaller than the observed star clusters in Arp 220. We then investigate a scenario (based on the Shlosman-Noguchi model) in which the infalling dense gas disk is unstable gravitationally and collapses to form massive gaseous clumps. Since these clumps are exposed to the external high pressure driven by the superwind (a blast wave driven by a collective effect of a large number of supernovae in the very core of the galaxy), they can collapse and then massive star formation may be induced in them. The objects produced in this kind of collapse have properties consistent with those of the observed super star clusters in the center of Arp 220.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure, ApJ (Letters) in pres

A systematic review of the relationships between social capital and socioeconomic inequalities in health: a contribution to understanding the psychosocial pathway of health inequalities

YesRecent research on health inequalities moves beyond illustrating the importance of psychosocial factors for health to a more in-depth study of the specific psychosocial pathways involved. Social capital is a concept that captures both a buffer function of the social environment on health, as well as potential negative effects arising from social inequality and exclusion. This systematic review assesses the current evidence, and identifies gaps in knowledge, on the associations and interactions between social capital and socioeconomic inequalities in health. Through this systematic review we identified studies on the interactions between social capital and socioeconomic inequalities in health published before July 2012. The literature search resulted in 618 studies after removal of duplicates, of which 60 studies were eligible for analysis. Self-reported measures of health were most frequently used, together with different bonding, bridging and linking components of social capital. A large majority, 56 studies, confirmed a correlation between social capital and socioeconomic inequalities in health. Twelve studies reported that social capital might buffer negative health effects of low socioeconomic status and five studies concluded that social capital has a stronger positive effect on health for people with a lower socioeconomic status. There is evidence for both a buffer effect and a dependency effect of social capital on socioeconomic inequalities in health, although the studies that assess these interactions are limited in number. More evidence is needed, as identified hypotheses have implications for community action and for action on the structural causes of social inequalities

Development of a fixative protocol using formaldehyde and gluteraldehyde for preservation of microbial art on agar plates.

Agar art bridges the gap between science and art, using microbes instead of paint. Afterwards, the art can change in response to microbial fluctuation, meaning preservation of the original art is essential. Here, formaldehyde and glutaraldehyde were investigated as preservatives, involving techniques used in healthcare settings to preserve samples. Formaldehyde was tested at 1.0%, 2.0% and 3.7%, w/v, whereas glutaraldehyde was tested at 1% and 2.5%, w/v. Both compounds and respective concentrations were tested for different time periods. Escherichia coli, Serratia marcescens, Staphlococcus aureus and Micrococcus luteus were used as bacteria for "drawing" the works of art. The effectiveness of fixation was determined using integrated densities and visual assessment. Initially, both compounds showed potential promise, albeit with a loss of bacteria. Ser. marcescens was prone to colour changes and glutaraldehyde caused discolouration of agar and bacteria. These could be caused by a pH decrease in the agar, due to residual free aldehyde groups. Reduction of this was tested using 300 mM sodium metabisulfite to neutralize excess aldehydes. This initially led to reduced bacterial loss and avoided colour changes, however measurements 24 h post-fixation showed colour loss to some bacterial clusters. This study found that, depending on the species, use of at least 2% formaldehyde for a short fixation period (typically 1 min) was the most promising approach for the preservation of art. Given the success of this with different bacteria, it would make a good starting combination for anyone trying to fix agar art; depending on the bacterial species used, methodology refinement may be needed for optimisation. This study shows successful fixation and preservation of different bacterial species on agar for the first time. The impact of this is to preserve agar art while making it safe and non-infective to those in contact with the microbial art

The REconsolidaTion Using RewiNd Study (RETURN): trial protocol

Background: An increasing body of research highlights reconsolidation-based therapies as emerging treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The Rewind Technique is a non-pharmacological reconsolidation-based therapy with promising early results, which now requires evaluation through an RCT. Objectives: This is a preliminary efficacy RCT to determine if the Rewind Technique is likely to be a good candidate to test against usual care in a future pragmatic efficacy RCT. Methods: 40 participants will be randomised to receive either the Rewind Technique immediately, or after an 8 week wait. The primary outcome will be PTSD symptom severity as measured by the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM5 (CAPS-5) at 8 and 16 weeks post-randomisation. Secondary outcome measures include the PTSD Checklist (PCL-5), International Trauma Questionnaire (ITQ), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), the General Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), Insomnia Severity Index, the Euro-Qol-5D (EQ5D-5 L), the prominence of re-experiencing specific symptoms (CAPS-5) and an intervention acceptability questionnaire to measure tolerability of the intervention. Conclusions: This study will be the first RCT to assess the Rewind Technique. Using a cross-over methodology we hope to rigorously assess the efficacy and tolerability of Rewind using pragmatic inclusion criteria. Potential challenges include participant recruitment and retention

Single-chain Fv phage display propensity exhibits strong positive correlation with overall expression levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Single chain Fvs (scFvs) are widely applied in research, diagnostics and therapeutic settings. Display and selection from combinatorial libraries is the main route to their discovery and many factors influence the success of this process. They exhibit low thermodynamic stability, resulting in low levels of premature cytosolic folding or aggregation which facilitates <it>sec </it>YEG-mediated translocation and phage in <it>E. coli</it>. However, there is little data analysing how this is related to and influenced by scFv protein expression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We characterised the relationship between overall scFv expression and display propensity for a panel of 15 anti-tetanus toxin scFvs and found a strong positive correlation (Rho = 0.88, p < 0.005) between the two parameters. Display propensity, overall expression and soluble localisation to the periplasm and extracellular fractions were clone specific characteristics which varied despite high levels of sequence homology. There was no correlation between display of scFv or its expression in non-fused (free) form with soluble scFv localisation to the periplasm or culture supernatant. This suggests that divergence in the fate of scFv-pIII and non-fused scFv after translocation to the periplasm accounts for the observed disparity. Differential degrees of periplasmic aggregation of non-fused scFv between clones may affect the partitioning of scFv in the periplasm and culture supernatant abrogating any correlation. We suggest that these factors do not apply to the scFv-pIII fusion since it remains anchored to the bacterial inner membrane as part of the innate phage packaging and budding process.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that in the absence of premature cytosolic aggregation or folding, the propensity of a scFv to be displayed on phage is directly related to its overall expression level and is thus indirectly influenced by factors such as codon bias, mRNA abundance or putative DNA motifs affecting expression. This suggests that scFvs capable of high overall expression and display levels may not produce high yields of non phage-fused soluble protein in either the periplasmic or extracellular fractions of <it>E. coli</it>. This should be considered when screening clones selected from combinatorial libraries for further study.</p> <p>The nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the anti-tetanus toxin scFvs have been deposited in the EMBL data base: accession numbers-C1: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749134">AM749134</ext-link>, C2: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749135">AM749135</ext-link>, C3: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749136">AM749136</ext-link>, C4: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749137">AM749137</ext-link>, C5: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749138">AM749138</ext-link>, N1: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749139">AM749139</ext-link>, N2: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749140">AM749140</ext-link>, N3: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749141">AM749141</ext-link>, N4: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749142">AM749142</ext-link>, N5: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749143">AM749143</ext-link> J1; <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749144">AM749144</ext-link>, J2: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749145">AM749145</ext-link>, J3: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749146">AM749146</ext-link>, J4: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749147">AM749147</ext-link>, J5: <ext-link ext-link-type="embl" ext-link-id="AM749148">AM749148</ext-link>.</p

Stratospheric Gravity Waves as a Proxy for Hurricane Intensification:A Case Study of Weather Research and Forecast Simulation for Hurricane Joaquin

We conducted simulations with a 4-km resolution for Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The model data are used to study stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) generated by the hurricane and how they correlate with hurricane intensity. The simulation results show spiral GWs propagating upward and anticlockwise away from the hurricane center. GWs with vertical wavelengths up to 14 km are generated. We find that GW activity is more frequent and intense during hurricane intensification than during weakening, particularly for the most intense GW activity. There are significant correlations between the change of stratospheric GW intensity and hurricane intensity. Therefore, the emergence of intensive stratospheric GW activity may be considered a useful proxy for identifying hurricane intensification

Aeolus wind lidar observations of the 2019/2020 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation disruption with comparison to radiosondes and reanalysis

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unexpectedly disrupted for only the second time in the historical record during the 2019/20 boreal winter. As the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the tropical stratosphere, and a significant source of seasonal predictability globally, understanding the drivers behind this unusual behaviour is very important. Here, novel data from Aeolus, the first Doppler wind lidar in space, is used to observe the 2019/20 QBO disruption. Aeolus is the first satellite able to observe winds at high resolution on a global scale, and is therefore a uniquely capable platform for studying the evolution of the disruption and the broader circulation changes triggered by it. This study therefore contains the first direct wind observations of the QBO from space, and exploits measurements from a special Aeolus scanning mode, implemented to observe this disruption as it happened. Aeolus observes easterly winds of up to 20 ms&minus;1 in the core of the disruption jet during July 2020. By co-locating with radiosonde measurements from Singapore and ERA5 reanalysis, like-for-like comparisons of the observed wind structures in the tropical stratosphere are produced, showing equatorial Kelvin wave activity and key parts of the Walker Circulation during the disruption period. The onset of the disruption easterly jet occurs 5 days earlier in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This analysis highlights how Aeolus and future Doppler wind lidar satellites can deepen our understanding of the QBO, its disruptions, and the tropical upper-troposphere lower-stratosphere region more generally.</p

On the derivation of zonal and meridional wind components from Aeolus horizontal line-of-sight wind

Since its launch in 2018, the European Space Agency’s Earth Explorer satellite Aeolus has provided global height resolved measurements of horizontal wind in the troposphere and lower stratosphere for the first time. Novel datasets such as these provide an unprecedented opportunity for the research of atmospheric dynamics and provide new insights into the dynamics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. Aeolus measures the wind component along its horizontal line-of-sight, but for the analysis and interpretation of atmospheric dynamics, zonal and/or meridional wind components are most useful

Gravity waves in the winter stratosphere over the Southern Ocean: high-resolution satellite observations and 3-D spectral analysis.

Atmospheric gravity waves play a key role in the transfer of energy and momentum between layers of the Earth's atmosphere. However, nearly all Global Circulation Models (GCMs) seriously under-represent the momentum fluxes of gravity waves at latitudes near 60° S. This can result in modelled winter stratospheres that are unrealistically cold – a significant bias known as the "cold-pole problem". There is thus a need for measurements of gravity-wave fluxes near 60S to test and constrain GCMs. Such measurements are notoriously difficult, because they require 3-D observations of wave properties if the fluxes are to be estimated without using significant limiting assumptions. Here we use 3-D satellite measurements of stratospheric gravity waves from NASA's AIRS/Aqua instrument. We present the first extended application of a 3-D Stockwell transform (3DST) method to determine localised gravity-wave amplitudes, wavelengths and directions of propagation around the entire region of the Southern Ocean near 60° S during austral winter 2010. We first validate our method using a synthetic wave field and two case studies of real gravity waves over the Southern Andes and the island of South Georgia. A new technique to overcome wave amplitude attenuation problems in previous methods is also presented. We then characterise large-scale gravity-wave occurrence frequencies, directional momentum fluxes and short-timescale intermittency over the entire Southern Ocean. Our results show that highest wave-occurrence frequencies, amplitudes and momentum fluxes are observed in the stratosphere over the mountains of the Southern Andes and Antarctic Peninsula. However, we find that around 60–80 % of total zonal-mean momentum flux is located over the open Southern Ocean during June–August, where a large "belt" of increased wave-occurrence frequencies, amplitudes and fluxes is observed. Our results also suggest significant short-timescale variability of fluxes from both orographic and non-orographic sources in the region. A particularly striking result is a widespread convergence of gravity-wave momentum fluxes towards latitudes around 60° S from the north and south. We propose that this convergence, which is observed at nearly all longitudes during winter, accounts for a significant part of the under-represented flux in GCMs at these latitudes