Generalizing boundaries for triangular designs, and efficacy estimation at extended follow-ups.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease transmitted by sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Phase II trials of new treatment regimens for VL are primarily carried out to evaluate safety and efficacy, while pharmacokinetic data are also important to inform future combination treatment regimens. The efficacy of VL treatments is evaluated at two time points, initial cure, when treatment is completed and definitive cure, commonly 6 months post end of treatment, to allow for slow response to treatment and detection of relapses. This paper investigates a generalization of the triangular design to impose a minimum sample size for pharmacokinetic or other analyses, and methods to estimate efficacy at extended follow-up accounting for the sequential design and changes in cure status during extended follow-up. METHODS: We provided R functions that generalize the triangular design to impose a minimum sample size before allowing stopping for efficacy. For estimation of efficacy at a second, extended, follow-up time, the performance of a shrinkage estimator (SHE), a probability tree estimator (PTE) and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimation was assessed by simulation. RESULTS: The SHE and PTE are viable approaches to estimate an extended follow-up although the SHE performed better than the PTE: the bias and root mean square error were lower and coverage probabilities higher. CONCLUSIONS: Generalization of the triangular design is simple to implement for adaptations to meet requirements for pharmacokinetic analyses. Using the simple MLE approach to estimate efficacy at extended follow-up will lead to biased results, generally over-estimating treatment success. The SHE is recommended in trials of two or more treatments. The PTE is an acceptable alternative for one-arm trials or where use of the SHE is not possible due to computational complexity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01067443 , February 2010

Community health workers adherence to referral guidelines: evidence from studies introducing RDTs in two malaria transmission settings in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Many malaria-endemic countries have implemented national community health worker (CHW) programmes to serve remote populations that have poor access to malaria diagnosis and treatment. Despite mounting evidence of CHWs' ability to adhere to malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment guidelines, there is limited evidence whether CHWs adhere to the referral guidelines and refer severely ill children for further management. In southwest Uganda, this study examined whether CHWs referred children according to training guidelines and described factors associated with adherence to the referral guideline. METHODS: A secondary analysis was undertaken of data collected during two cluster-randomized trials conducted between January 2010 and July 2011, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and the other in a low malaria transmission setting. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and recognize symptoms in children that required immediate referral to the nearest health centre. Intervention arm CHWs had additional training on how to conduct an RDT; CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria using clinical signs and symptoms. CHW treatment registers were reviewed to identify children eligible for referral according to training guidelines (temperature of ≥38.5 °C), to assess whether CHWs adhered to the guidelines and referred them. Factors associated with adherence were examined with logistic regression models. RESULTS: CHWs failed to refer 58.8% of children eligible in the moderate-to-high transmission and 31.2% of children in the low transmission setting. CHWs using RDTs adhered to the referral guidelines more frequently than CHWs not using RDTs (moderate-to-high transmission: 50.1 vs 18.0%, p = 0.003; low transmission: 88.5 vs 44.1%, p < 0.001). In both settings, fewer than 20% of eligible children received pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate. Children who were prescribed ACT were very unlikely to be referred in both settings (97.7 and 73.3% were not referred in the moderate-to-high and low transmission settings, respectively). In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, day and season of visit were also associated with the likelihood of adherence to the referral guidelines, but not in the low transmission setting. CONCLUSIONS: CHW adherence to referral guidelines was poor in both transmission settings. However, training CHWs to use RDT improved correct referral of children with a high fever compared to a presumptive diagnosis using sign and symptoms. As many countries scale up CHW programmes, routine monitoring of reported data should be examined carefully to assess whether CHWs adhere to referral guidelines and take remedial actions where required

Caregivers' compliance with referral advice: evidence from two studies introducing mRDTs into community case management of malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Several malaria endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programmes to increase access to populations underserved by health care. There is considerable evidence on CHW adherence to case management guidelines, however, there is limited evidence on the compliance to referral advice and the outcomes of children under-5 referred by CHWs. This analysis examined whether caregivers complied with CHWs referral advice. METHODS: Data from two cluster (village) randomised trials, one in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting, another in a low-transmission setting conducted between January 2010-July 2011 were analysed. CHW were trained to recognise signs and symptoms that required referral to a health centre. CHW in the intervention arm also had training on; malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) and administering artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT); CHW in the control arm were trained to treat malaria with ACTs based on fever symptoms. Caregivers' referral forms were linked with CHW treatment forms to determine whether caregivers complied with the referral advice. Factors associated with compliance were examined with logistic regression. RESULTS: CHW saw 18,497 child visits in the moderate-to-high transmission setting and referred 15.2% (2815/18,497) of all visits; in the low-transmission setting, 35.0% (1135/3223) of all visits were referred. Compliance to referral was low, in both settings < 10% of caregivers complied with referral advice. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting compliance was higher if children were tested with mRDT compared to children who were not tested with mRDT. In both settings, nearly all children treated with pre-referral rectal artesunate failed to comply with referral and compliance was independently associated with factors such as health centre distance and day of referral by a CHW. In the moderate-to-high transmission setting, time of presentation, severity of referral were also associated with compliance, whilst in the low-transmission setting, compliance was low if an ACT was prescribed. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests there are several barriers to comply with CHWs referral advice by caregivers. This is concerning for children who received rectal artesunate. As CHW programmes continue scale-up, barriers to referral compliance need to be addressed to ensure a continuum of care from the community to the health centre. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier NCT01048801 , 13th January 2010

Referral patterns of community health workers diagnosing and treating malaria:Cluster-randomized trials in two areas of high- and low-malaria transmission in southwestern Uganda

Malaria-endemic countries have implemented community health worker (CHW) programs to provide malaria diagnosis and treatment to populations living beyond the reach of health systems. However, there is limited evidence describing the referral practices of CHWs. We examined the impact of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) on CHW referral in two cluster-randomized trials, one conducted in a moderate-to-high malaria transmission setting and one in a low-transmission setting in Uganda, between January 2010 and July 2012. All CHWs were trained to prescribe artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria and recognize signs and symptoms for referral to health centers. CHWs in the control arm used a presumptive diagnosis for malaria based on clinical symptoms, whereas intervention arm CHWs used mRDTs. CHWs recorded ACT prescriptions, mRDT results, and referral in patient registers. An intention-to-treat analysis was undertaken using multivariable logistic regression. Referral was more frequent in the intervention arm versus the control arm (moderate-to-high transmission, P < 0.001; low transmission, P < 0.001). Despite this increase, referral advice was not always given when ACTs or prereferral rectal artesunate were prescribed: 14% prescribed rectal artesunate in the moderate-to-high setting were not referred. In addition, CHWs considered factors alongside mRDTs when referring. Child visits during the weekends or the rainy season were less likely to be referred, whereas visits to CHWs more distant from health centers were more likely to be referred (low transmission only). CHWs using mRDTs and ACTs increased referral compared with CHWs using a presumptive diagnosis. To address these concerns, referral training should be emphasized in CHW programs as they are scaled-up

Mucin transiently sustains coronavirus infectivity through heterogenous changes in phase morphology of evaporating aerosol

Respiratory pathogens can be spread though the transmission of aerosolised expiratory secretions in the form of droplets or particulates. Understanding the fundamental aerosol parameters that govern how such pathogens survive whilst airborne is essential to understanding and developing methods of restricting their dissemination. Pathogen viability measurements made using Controlled Electrodynamic Levitation and Extraction of Bioaerosol onto Substrate (CELEBS) in tandem with a comparative kinetics electrodynamic balance (CKEDB) measurements allow for a direct comparison between viral viability and evaporation kinetics of the aerosol with a time resolution of seconds. Here, we report the airborne survival of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) and determine a comparable loss of infectivity in the aerosol phase to our previous observations of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Through the addition of clinically relevant concentrations of mucin to the bioaerosol, there is a transient mitigation of the loss of viral infectivity at 40% RH. Increased concentrations of mucin promoted heterogenous phase change during aerosol evaporation, characterised as the formation of inclusions within the host droplet. This research demonstrates the role of mucus in the aerosol phase and its influence on short-term airborne viral stability

Non-monotonic variation with salt concentration of the second virial coefficient in protein solutions

The osmotic virial coefficient $B_2$ of globular protein solutions is calculated as a function of added salt concentration at fixed pH by computer simulations of the ``primitive model''. The salt and counter-ions as well as a discrete charge pattern on the protein surface are explicitly incorporated. For parameters roughly corresponding to lysozyme, we find that $B_2$ first decreases with added salt concentration up to a threshold concentration, then increases to a maximum, and then decreases again upon further raising the ionic strength. Our studies demonstrate that the existence of a discrete charge pattern on the protein surface profoundly influences the effective interactions and that non-linear Poisson Boltzmann and Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory fail for large ionic strength. The observed non-monotonicity of $B_2$ is compared to experiments. Implications for protein crystallization are discussed.Comment: 43 pages, including 17 figure

The Cancer Genomics Resource List 2014

Context.— Genomic sequencing for cancer is offered by commercial for-profit laboratories, independent laboratory networks, and laboratories in academic medical centers and integrated health networks. The variability among the tests has created a complex, confusing environment. Objective.— To address the complexity, the Personalized Health Care (PHC) Committee of the College of American Pathologists proposed the development of a cancer genomics resource list (CGRL). The goal of this resource was to assist the laboratory pathology and clinical oncology communities. Design.— The PHC Committee established a working group in 2012 to address this goal. The group consisted of site-specific experts in cancer genetic sequencing. The group identified current next-generation sequencing (NGS)–based cancer tests and compiled them into a usable resource. The genes were annotated by the working group. The annotation process drew on published knowledge, including public databases and the medical literature. Results.— The compiled list includes NGS panels offered by 19 laboratories or vendors, accompanied by annotations. The list has 611 different genes for which NGS-based mutation testing is offered. Surprisingly, of these 611 genes, 0 genes were listed in every panel, 43 genes were listed in 4 panels, and 54 genes were listed in 3 panels. In addition, tests for 393 genes were offered by only 1 or 2 institutions. Table 1 provides an example of gene mutations offered for breast cancer genomic testing with the annotation as it appears in the CGRL 2014. Conclusions.— The final product, referred to as the Cancer Genomics Resource List 2014, is available as supplemental digital content

Modelling the impact of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria on selection pressure for drug resistance

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a promising intervention for malaria control, although there are concerns about its impact on drug resistance. METHODS: The key model inputs are age-specific values for a) baseline anti-malarial dosing rate, b) parasite prevalence, and c) proportion of those treated with anti-malarials (outside IPT) who are infected. These are used to estimate the immediate effect of IPT on the genetic coefficient of selection (s). The scenarios modelled were year round IPT to infants in rural southern Tanzania, and three doses at monthly intervals of seasonal IPT in Senegal. RESULTS: In the simulated Tanzanian setting, the model suggests a high selection pressure for drug resistance, but that IPTi would only increase this by a small amount (4.4%). The percent change in s is larger if parasites are more concentrated in infants, or if baseline drug dosing is less common or less specific. If children aged up to five years are included in the Tanzanian scenario then the predicted increase in s rises to 31%. The Senegalese seasonal IPT scenario, in children up to five years, results in a predicted increase in s of 16%. CONCLUSION: There is a risk that the useful life of drugs will be shortened if IPT is implemented over a wide childhood age range. On the other hand, IPT delivered only to infants is unlikely to appreciably shorten the useful life of the drug used

Search for Yukawa Production of a Light Neutral Higgs Boson at LEP

Within a Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM) a search for a light Higgs boson in the mass range of 4-12 GeV has been performed in the Yukawa process e+e- -> b bbar A/h -> b bbar tau+tau-, using the data collected by the OPAL detector at LEP between 1992 and 1995 in e+e- collisions at about 91 GeV centre-of-mass energy. A likelihood selection is applied to separate background and signal. The number of observed events is in good agreement with the expected background. Within a CP-conserving 2HDM type II model the cross-section for Yukawa production depends on xiAd = |tan beta| and xihd = |sin alpha/cos beta| for the production of the CP-odd A and the CP-even h, respectively, where tan beta is the ratio of the vacuum expectation values of the Higgs doublets and alpha is the mixing angle between the neutral CP-even Higgs bosons. From our data 95% C.L. upper limits are derived for xiAd within the range of 8.5 to 13.6 and for xihd between 8.2 to 13.7, depending on the mass of the Higgs boson, assuming a branching fraction into tau+tau- of 100%. An interpretation of the limits within a 2HDM type II model with Standard Model particle content is given. These results impose constraints on several models that have been proposed to explain the recent BNL measurement of the muon anomalous magnetic moment.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.

Determination of alpha_s using Jet Rates at LEP with the OPAL detector

Hadronic events produced in e+e- collisions by the LEP collider and recorded by the OPAL detector were used to form distributions based on the number of reconstructed jets. The data were collected between 1995 and 2000 and correspond to energies of 91 GeV, 130-136 GeV and 161-209 GeV. The jet rates were determined using four different jet-finding algorithms (Cone, JADE, Durham and Cambridge). The differential two-jet rate and the average jet rate with the Durham and Cambridge algorithms were used to measure alpha(s) in the LEP energy range by fitting an expression in which order alpah_2s calculations were matched to a NLLA prediction and fitted to the data. Combining the measurements at different centre-of-mass energies, the value of alpha_s (Mz) was determined to be alpha(s)(Mz)=0.1177+-0.0006(stat.)+-0.0012$(expt.)+-0.0010(had.)+-0.0032(theo.) \.Comment: 40 pages, 17 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.