Attraction by ingroup coherence explains the emergence of ideological sorting

Political polarization has become a growing concern in democratic societies, as it drives tribal alignments and erodes civic deliberation among citizens. Given its prevalence across different countries, previous research has sought to understand the conditions under which people tend to endorse extreme opinions. However, in polarized contexts, citizens not only adopt more extreme views but also become more correlated across issues which are, a priori, seemingly unrelated. This phenomenon, known as 'ideological sorting', has been increasing in recent years but the micro-level mechanisms underlying its emergence remain poorly understood. Here, we study the conditions under which a social dynamic system is expected to become ideologically sorted as a function of the mechanisms of interaction between its individuals. To this end, we developed and analyzed a multidimensional agent-based model that incorporates two mechanisms: homophily (where people tend to interact with those holding similar opinions) and ingroup-coherence favoritism (where people tend to interact with ingroups holding politically coherent opinions). We developed and solved the model's master equations that perfectly describe the system's dynamics and found that ideological sorting only emerges in models that include ingroup-coherence favoritism. We then compared the model's outcomes with empirical data proceeding from 24,035 opinions across 67 topics, and found that ingroup-coherence favoritism is significantly present in datasets that measure political attitudes, but it is absent across non-political topics. Overall, this work combines theoretical approaches from system dynamics with model-based analyses of empirical data to uncover a potential mechanism underlying the pervasiveness of ideological sorting

Antropologí­a al servicio de la bioética: el humanismo metafí­sico

ArtículoNo hay duda de que la solución de los frecuentes conflictos entre principios en Bioética exige una reflexión rigurosa, basada en un sistema de referencia moral que respete alguna consigna universal capaz de superar el simple consenso entre expertos. La solución definitiva obliga a fundamentar cualquier decisión en un modelo antropológico

Safety culture in the Spanish nuclear power plants through the prism of high reliability organization, resilience and conflicting objectives theories

Safety culture is the result of values, attitudes, and perceptions of the members of an organization that prioritize safety over competing goals. Previous research has shown the impact that organizational aspects can have in safety performance. Under the prism of the theoretical approaches from the high reliability organizations theory (HROT), resilience engineering (RE), and conflicting objectives perspective, this study was aimed at describing the overall main safety culture traits of the Spanish nuclear power plants, as well as identifying particularities associated with subcultures. For this purpose, a statistical analysis of safety culture surveys and behavioral anchored rating scales (BARS), handed over to all the operating Spanish nuclear power plants, was carried out. Results reveal that safety is a recognized value that prevails over production, there is a high degree of standardization, power plants are better prepared to organize plans and strategies than to adapt and cope with the needs of a crisis, and there is a critical and fragmented perception about the processes of resources allocation. Findings also identify that sociodemographic aspects, such as work location and contractual relationship, seem to be shaping differentiated visions. Several safety implications linked to the results are discussed

Polarizing crowds: Consensus and bipolarization in a persuasive arguments model

Understanding the opinion formation dynamics in social systems is of vast relevance in diverse aspects of society. In particular, it is relevant for political deliberation and other group decision-making processes. Although previous research has reported different approaches to model social dynamics, most of them focused on interaction mechanisms where individuals modify their opinions in line with the opinions of others, without invoking a latent mechanism of argumentation. In this paper, we present a model where changes of opinion are due to explicit exchanges of arguments, and we analyze the emerging collective states in terms of simple dynamic rules. We find that, when interactions are equiprobable and symmetrical, the model only shows consensus solutions. However, when either homophily, confirmation bias, or both are included, we observe the emergence and dominance of bipolarization, which appears due to the fact that individuals are not able to accept the contrary information from their opponents during exchanges of arguments. In all cases, the predominance of each stable state depends on the relation between the number of agents and the number of available arguments in the discussion. Overall, this paper describes the dynamics and shows the conditions wherein deliberative agents are expected to construct polarized societies.Fil: Barrera Lemarchand, Federico Ulises. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Semeshenko, Viktoriya. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Navajas, Joaquín. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; ArgentinaFil: Balenzuela, Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Partisanship Predicts COVID-19 Vaccine Brand Preference: The Insightful Case of Argentina

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of not only diminishing the resistance to vaccine adoption in general, but also to reduce both real and perceived barriers to a swift vaccination campaign. One major problem faced by health systems around the world was that people’s preferences for a specific brand of vaccine often delayed vaccination efforts as people canceled or delayed appointments to receive their preferred brand. Therefore, in the event of another pandemic, it is important to know which factors influence preferences for specific vaccine brands. Previous literature showed that consumers choose products that are congruent with their self-concept, which includes their political affiliation. Given that the discourse around vaccine brands has been strongly politicized during the pandemic, in our work, we test whether partisanship influences preferences for COVID-19 vaccine brands. To test this, we collected survey data from Argentina (N = 432), a country with a clear bipartisan structure and where a variety of vaccine brands were administered, both from Western and Eastern laboratories. We found that supporters of the ruling party, which had strong ties with Eastern countries such as Russia and China, perceived Eastern vaccine brands (e.g., Sputnik V) to be more effective and safe than Western ones (e.g., Pfizer) whereas the contrary was true for supporters of the opposition. Our results also showed that supporters of the opposing party were more likely to wish to hypothetically switch vaccines, to delay their appointment in case of not receiving their preferred brand, and to disapprove of their local vaccination campaign. Our results demonstrate that political party affiliation biases perceptions of both vaccine brands’ quality and vaccination campaign effectiveness. We anticipate that our results can inform public policy strategies when it comes to an efficient vaccine supply allocation, as political affiliation is a measurable and predictable consumer trait.Este artículo se encuentra publicado en SSRN 4292235

Development of a Protocol for the Systematic Analysis of Events at Hydrogen Refuelling Stations

Sustainable hydrogen is transitioning from a future concept to a reality in everyday life, especially in some countries. There are numerous developments and applications of primary use of hydrogen, such as fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs). HRSs’ safety is a prerequisite for their successful deployment in society. The expansion of this technology inevitably will depend on its safe operation, thus there is a need to minimize potential risks in the value chain of hydrogen. As part of the international SUSHy project, we aim to identify key parameters and safety requirements to minimize risks and ensure HRS safety. As a first step, an incident analysis protocol has been developed based on proven methodologies from high reliability industries (such as nuclear and offshore). This protocol, Incident Contributing Factors Analysis (ICFA), will guide the systematic analysis of the different factors involved in the events. The ICFA has been validated by a multidisciplinary team of experts through its application to some incidents obtained from various international databases (KHK, HIAD 2.0, ARIA, and H2 LL). This paper briefly describes the basis of the ICFA protocol development and the procedure for its implementation, derived from the results of the pilot study. In the framework of the SUSHy project, it is planned to apply this protocol to a systematic analysis of more than 200 incidents and accidents that occurred in HRS, which have been identified and selected from the previous mentioned international databases. Its systematic application will allow ranking risk factors and gathering lessons learned in order to improve HRS safety

Development of a food composition database of different food contaminants CONT11 and estimation of dietary exposure in children of southern Spain

This work was supported by the “Plan propio de Investigaci´on y Transferencia” of the University of Granada under the program “Intensificaci´on de la Investigaci´on, modalidad B′′ granted to Jos´e A. Rufi´an-Henares. This work is part of the doctoral thesis of Daniel Hinojosa-Nogueira conducted within the context of the “Program of Nutrition and Food Sciences” at the University of Granada.Increasing food security is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. One of the main risks in food is the increase in food contaminants. Processing methods, such as the addition of additives or heat treatment, influence contaminant generation and increase their levels in food. The aim of the present study was to create a database using a methodology similar to that of food composition databases but with a focus on potential food contaminants. CONT11 collects information on 11 contaminants: hydroxymethyl-2-furfural, pyrraline, Amadori compounds, furosine, acrylamide, furan, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzopyrene, nitrates, nitrites and nitrosamines. This is collected for more than 220 foods obtained from 35 different data sources. A food frequency questionnaire validated for use with children was used to validate the database. Contaminant intake and exposure in 114 children aged 10–11 years were estimated. Outcomes were within the range of values described by other studies, confirming the usefulness of CONT11. This database will allow nutrition researchers to go a step further in assessing dietary exposure to some food components and the association of this with disease, whilst also informing strategies to reduce exposure.Universidad de Granad

Fiber intake and all-cause mortality in the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea (PREDIMED) study

Background: Few observational studies have examined the effect of dietary fiber intake and fruit and vegetable consumption on total mortality and have reported inconsistent results. All of the studies have been conducted in the general population and typically used only a single assessment of diet. Objective: We investigated the association of fiber intake and whole-grain, fruit, and vegetable consumption with all-cause mortality in a Mediterranean cohort of elderly adults at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by using repeated measurements of dietary information and taking into account the effect of a dietary intervention. Design: We followed up 7216 men (55-75 y old) and women (60-75 y old) at high CVD risk in the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea (PREDIMED) trial for a mean of 5.9 y. Data were analyzed as an observational cohort. Participants were initially free of CVD. A 137-item validated food-frequency questionnaire administered by dietitians was repeated annually to assess dietary exposures (fiber, fruit, vegetable, and whole-grain intakes). Deaths were identified through the continuing medical care of participants and the National Death Index. An independent, blinded Event Adjudication Committee adjudicated causes of death. Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs of death during follow-up according to baseline dietary exposures and their yearly updated changes. Results: In up to 8.7 y of follow-up, 425 participants died. Baseline fiber intake and fruit consumption were significantly associated with lower risk of death [HRs for the fifth compared with the first quintile: 0.63 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.86; P = 0.015) and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.82; P = 0.004), respectively]. When the updated dietary information was considered, participants with fruit consumption .210 g/d had 41% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.78). Associations were strongest for CVD mortality than other causes of death. Conclusion: Fiber and fruit intakes are associated with a reduction in total mortality. PREDIMED was registered at controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN35739639. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.Peer Reviewe

Clinical validation of risk scoring systems to predict risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions

[Background and Aims]: The Endoscopic Resection Group of the Spanish Society of Endoscopy (GSEED-RE) model and the Australian Colonic Endoscopic Resection (ACER) model were proposed to predict delayed bleeding (DB) after EMR of large superficial colorectal lesions, but neither has been validated. We validated and updated these models.[Methods]: A multicenter cohort study was performed in patients with nonpedunculated lesions ≥20 mm removed by EMR. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the GSEED-RE and ACER models. Difficulty performing EMR was subjectively categorized as low, medium, or high. We created a new model, including factors associated with DB in 3 cohort studies.[Results]: DB occurred in 45 of 1034 EMRs (4.5%); it was associated with proximal location (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-6.16), antiplatelet agents (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, .99-6.34) or anticoagulants (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 2.14-9.63), difficulty of EMR (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.41-7.40), and comorbidity (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, .99-4.47). The GSEED-RE and ACER models did not accurately predict DB. Re-estimation and recalibration yielded acceptable results (GSEED-RE area under the curve [AUC], .64 [95% CI, .54-.74]; ACER AUC, .65 [95% CI, .57-.73]). We used lesion size, proximal location, comorbidity, and antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy to generate a new model, the GSEED-RE2, which achieved higher AUC values (.69-.73; 95% CI, .59-.80) and exhibited lower susceptibility to changes among datasets.[Conclusions]: The updated GSEED-RE and ACER models achieved acceptable prediction levels of DB. The GSEED-RE2 model may achieve better prediction results and could be used to guide the management of patients after validation by other external groups. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT 03050333.)Research support for this study was received from “La Caixa/Caja Navarra” Foundation (ID 100010434;project PR15/11100006)