Estimating an individual's probability of revision surgery after knee replacement : a comparison of modeling approaches using a national dataset

Tools that provide personalized risk prediction of the outcomes after surgical procedures help patients to make preference-based decisions amongst the available treatment options. However, it is unclear which modeling approach provides the most accurate risk estimation. We constructed and compared several parametric and non-parametric models for predicting prosthesis survivorship after knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis. We used 430,455 patient-procedure episodes between April 2003 and September 2015 from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. The flexible parametric survival and random survival forest models most accurately captured the observed probability of remaining event-free. The concordance index for the flexible parametric model was the highest (0.705; 95% confidence interval: 0.702, 0.707) for total knee replacement, 0.639 (95% confidence interval: 0.634, 0.643) for unicondylar knee replacement and 0.589 (95% confidence interval: 0.586, 0.592) for patellofemoral replacement. The observed-to-predicted ratios for both the flexible parametric and the random survival forest approaches indicated that models tended to underestimate the risks for most risk groups. Our results show that the flexible parametric model has a better overall performance compared to other tested parametric methods, and better discrimination compared to the random survival forest approach

Clinical- and cost-effectiveness of the STAR care pathway compared to usual care for patients with chronic pain after total knee replacement: study protocol for a UK randomised controlled trial.

Approximately 20% of patients experience chronic pain after total knee replacement. There is little evidence for effective interventions for the management of this pain, and current healthcare provision is patchy and inconsistent. Given the complexity of this condition, multimodal and individualised interventions matched to pain characteristics are needed. We have undertaken a comprehensive programme of work to develop a care pathway for patients with chronic pain after total knee replacement. This protocol describes the design of a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a complex intervention care pathway compared with usual care.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Additional Link above to access the full-text via the publisher's site