The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions

Disparities in cataract surgery between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in New South Wales, Australia

<b>Background:</b> To investigate variation in rates of cataract surgery in New South Wales (NSW), Australia by area of residence for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal adults.<p></p> <b>Design:</b> Observational data linkage study of hospital admissions.<p></p> <b>Participants:</b> 289 646 NSW residents aged 30 years and over admitted to NSW hospitals for 444 551 cataract surgery procedures between 2001 and 2008.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> Analysis of linked routinely collected hospital data using direct standardisation and multilevel negative binomial regression models accounting for clustering of individuals within Statistical Local Areas (SLAs).<p></p> <b>Main outcome measures:</b> Age-standardised cataract surgery rates and adjusted rate ratios (ARRs).<p></p> <b>Results:</b> Aboriginal people had lower rates of cataract procedures than non-Aboriginal people of the same age and sex, living in the same SLA (ARR 0.71, 95% CI 0.68-0.75). There was significant variation in cataract surgery rates across SLAs for both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people, with the disparity higher in major cities and less disadvantaged areas. Rates of surgery were lower for Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people in most SLAs, but in a few, the rates were similar or higher for Aboriginal people.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> Aboriginal people in NSW received less cataract surgery than non-Aboriginal people, despite evidence of higher cataract rates. This disparity was greatest in urban and wealthier areas. Higher rates of surgery for Aboriginal people observed in some specific locations are likely to reflect the availability of public ophthalmology services, targeted services for Aboriginal people and higher demand for surgery in these populations.<p></p&gt

Atoll research bulletin.

no.531-542 (2005