New analysis of nuclear interaction observed by Mt. Kanbara emulsion chamber experiment

To date the analysis of the air cascade family has been performed using a full Monte Carlo simulation. It is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about the interaction mechanism by using only this kind of simulation. On the other hand, attempts to reproduce the original gamma ray at the interaction point, for example decascading, have also been made. This method makes it possible to observe the interaction directly and to analyze the data from various angles. All of these methods, however, assume a constant ER in the cascade shower, where E is energy and R is the distance from the center of the cascade shower. It is impossible to reproduce the exact interaction height and energy by these methods. A relative method in separating one cascade shower from others is adopted. This method makes it possible to estimate the interaction height and energy by using information about the lateral spread of the cascade shower

Developments in Land Prices and Bank Lending in Interwar Japan: Effects of the Real Estate Finance Problem on the Banking Industry

This paper investigates the relationship between fluctuations in asset prices and the real economic activity in interwar Japan, focusing on the effects of land price movements on the volume of bank lending. When what is called the "real estate finance problem" arose in the 1920s and the beginning of the 1930s, falling land prices may have affected bank lending, possibly due to the reduced collateral value of real estate held by borrowers and the reduced risk-taking capacity of the banking industry caused by impaired equity capital. Fluctuations in land prices and changes in the volume of lending made by ordinary and savings banks show similar developments, and regression analyses including panel data analyses at the prefectural level have indicated a significant relationship between land prices and bank lending. With respect to the equity capital of banking industry, consideration has been given to the scale of losses in real estate collateral loans caused by falling land prices, based on data from the Nihon Kangyo Bank.

Part-Paid Stock, Corporate Finance, and Investment: Economic Consequences of the Part-Paid Stock System and Supplementary Installments in the Early 1930s of Japan

Under Japanfs prewar capital stock system of joint-stock companies, rather than paying the full face value of a share in one lump sum, shareholders paid for stocks in multiple installments. This system was transplanted from industrialized Western nations during the Meiji Era to make it easier for investors to buy company shares and to promote capital concentrations. Company directors determined the amount of supplementary installments on part-paid stocks and when these installments were paid. The Commercial Code and Corporate articles of association specified sanctions for nonpayment, giving companies the backing needed to call in supplementary installments. Supplementary installments functioned as a last resort for corporate fund-raising in times of financial distress and played a role in corporate cash management and investment. Studies of historical documents such as financial statements and company histories show that in the early 1930s of the Great Depression, in a time of tight financial markets, many companies raised funds through supplementary installments, applying these funds to make investments and repay debts. As part of our study, we construct a new corporate financial data set with data on supplementary installments encompassing 174 firms, based on the Mitsubishi Economic Research Institutefs Honpo Jigyo-Seiseki Bunseki (Performance analysis of Japanese companies) and Toyo Keizaifs Kabushiki Gaisha Nenkan ( Company Year Book) and estimate cross-sectional investment functions for the fiscal year of 1932. Regression results suggest that while corporate investments were subject to liquidity and debt constraints, supplementary installments stabilized corporate cash management and promoted corporate investment activities.part-paid stock, joint-stock company, corporate finance, investment, financial system, interwar period, Great Depression

A Simple Method of Measuring the Increase of Life Expectancy When a Fixed Percent of Deaths from Certain Causes are Eliminated

The effect that one type of medical improvement will have on life expectancies is often computed using a life table. In classical methods, such as Greville's, the increase in life expectancy has been dealt with by assuming that deaths from a particular cause have been eradicated. Keyfitz derived a parameter that measures the increase in life expectancy by a marginal reduction in any cause of death. The parameter is additive in several causes and useful for various studies of causes of death. This paper is a generalization of Keyfitz's idea and deals with a case where some percent of the deaths from a particular cause are eliminated, not necessarily uniformly in all age intervals

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 200

Migration and Settlement: 13. Japan

In this report, authors from three Japanese institutions discuss changing migration patterns in their country. Emphasizing the current population shifts away from metropolitan areas, they analyze recent demographic dynamics in Japan, first with a 15-region and then an 8-region disaggregation of national population data. The report ends with a brief survey of major population policies that have been adopted in the last 30 years