Eliciting experts’ tacit models for the interpretation of soil information, an example from the evaluation of potential benefits from conservation agriculture

© 2020 The Authors We examined a procedure to elicit the tacit models underlying expert opinions on environmental factors that affect the absolute yield benefits expected from the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) practices in southern Africa. The procedure is based on expert evaluation of the expected improvement in crop yield on adoption of CA in a particular scenario or ‘state’, a state being a specified set of soil conditions captured by a standard soil profile description from a specified agroecological zone (AEZ) of Zambia. Mixed groups of scientists including soil scientists, agronomists, agricultural economists and other environmental scientists, facilitated by experienced senior researchers, were presented with multiple subsets each of three states, and asked to rank the states in each subset with respect to expected yield improvement under CA. The groups of scientists could be divided into two sets. Each set comprised two groups, and the agreement on ranking between groups within each set was larger than would be expected if the ranking were done at random. For both sets of groups the ranking could be modelled with respect to properties of the soil, and the contrast between AEZ. The models revealed two contrasting groups of conceptual assumptions. One group broadly expected larger absolute yield improvements from conservation agriculture in settings where water is most likely to be limiting and the carbon status of the soil is poor. By contrast, the other group expected larger improvements where water was less likely to be limiting. These contrasting views are relevant to current discussions as to whether conservation agriculture, which is promoted as a ‘climate smart’ strategy for cropping, is sufficiently attractive for smallholder producers in conditions where crop production is already challenging, and whether the potential benefits in areas where water availability is not of itself a common limitation should be considered. The elicited models could be translated directly into competing hypotheses to be tested, perhaps in on-farm trials of conservation agriculture practices over contrasting soils in the different AEZ. The method, based on modelling the ranking process, could be of more general interest for the elicitation of expert opinion about complex soil, crop and environmental systems

Agronomic biofortification increases grain zinc concentration of maize grown under contrasting soil types in Malawi

Zinc (Zn) deficiency remains a public health problem in Malawi, especially among poor and marginalized rural populations, linked with low dietary intake of Zn due to consumption of staple foods that are low in Zn content. The concentration of Zn in staple cereal grain can be increased through application of Zn-enriched fertilizers, a process called agronomic biofortification or agro-fortification. Field experiments were conducted at three Agricultural Research Station sites to assess the potential of agronomic biofortification to improve Zn concentration in maize grain in Malawi as described in registered report published previously. The hypotheses of the study were (i) that application of Zn-enriched fertilizers would increase in the concentration of Zn in maize grain to benefit dietary requirements of Zn and (ii) that Zn concentration in maize grain and the effectiveness of agronomic biofortification would be different between soil types. At each site two different subsites were used, each corresponding to one of two agriculturally important soil types of Malawi, Lixisols and Vertisols. Within each subsite, three Zn fertilizer rates (1, 30, and 90 kg ha−1) were applied to experimental plots, using standard soil application methods, in a randomized complete block design. The experiment had 10 replicates at each of the three sites as informed by a power analysis from a pilot study, published in the registered report for this experiment, designed to detect a 10% increase in grain Zn concentration at 90 kg ha−1, relative to the concentration at 1 kg ha−1. At harvest, maize grain yield and Zn concentration in grain were measured, and Zn uptake by maize grain and Zn harvest index were calculated. At 30 kg ha−1, Zn fertilizer increased maize grain yields by 11% compared with nationally recommended application rate of 1 kg ha−1. Grain Zn concentration increased by 15% and uptake by 23% at the application rate of 30 kg ha−1 relative to the national recommendation rate. The effects of Zn fertilizer application rate on the response variables were not dependent on soil type. The current study demonstrates the importance of increasing the national recommendation rate of Zn fertilizer to improve maize yield and increase the Zn nutritional value of the staple crop

Biofortified Maize Improves Selenium Status of Women and Children in a Rural Community in Malawi: Results of the Addressing Hidden Hunger With Agronomy Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Selenium deficiency is widespread in the Malawi population. The selenium concentration in maize, the staple food crop of Malawi, can be increased by applying selenium-enriched fertilizers. It is unknown whether this strategy, called agronomic biofortification, is effective at alleviating selenium deficiency. Objectives: The aim of the Addressing Hidden Hunger with Agronomy (AHHA) trial was to determine whether consumption of maize flour, agronomically-biofortified with selenium, affected the serum selenium concentrations of women, and children in a rural community setting. Design: An individually-randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial wasconducted in rural Malawi. Participants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive either intervention maize flour biofortified with selenium through application of selenium fertilizer, or control maize flour not biofortified with selenium. Participant households received enough flour to meet the typical consumption of all household members (330 g capita−1 day−1) for a period of 8 weeks. Baseline and endline serum selenium concentration (the primary outcome) was measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Results: One woman of reproductive age (WRA) and one school-aged child (SAC) from each of 180 households were recruited and households were randomized to each group. The baseline demographic and socioeconomic status of participants were well-balanced between arms. No serious adverse events were reported. In the intervention arm, mean (standard deviation) serum selenium concentration increased over the intervention period from 57.6 (17.0) μg L−1 (n = 88) to 107.9 (16.4) μg L−1 (n = 88) among WRA and from 46.4 (14.8) μg L−1 (n = 86) to 97.1 (16.0) μg L−1 (n = 88) among SAC. There was no evidence of change in serum selenium concentration in the control groups Conclusion: Consumption of maize flour biofortified through application of selenium-enriched fertilizer increased selenium status in this community providing strong proof of principle that agronomic biofortification could be an effective approach to address selenium deficiency in Malawi and similar settings. Clinical Trial Registration http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN85899451, identifier: ISRCTN85899451

Longitudinal analysis of a long-Term conservation agriculture experiment in Malawi and lessons for future experimental design

Resilient cropping systems are required to achieve food security in the presence of climate change, and so several long-Term conservation agriculture (CA) trials have been established in southern Africa-one of them at the Chitedze Agriculture Research Station in Malawi in 2007. The present study focused on a longitudinal analysis of 10 years of data from the trial to better understand the joint effects of variations between the seasons and particular contrasts among treatments on yield of maize. Of further interest was the variability of treatment responses in time and space and the implications for design of future trials with adequate statistical power. The analysis shows treatment differences of the mean effect which vary according to cropping season. There was a strong treatment effect between rotational treatments and other treatments and a weak effect between intercropping and monocropping. There was no evidence for an overall advantage of systems where residues are retained (in combination with direct seeding or planting basins) over conventional management with respect to maize yield. A season effect was evident although the strong benefit of rotation in El Niño season was also reduced, highlighting the strong interaction between treatment and climatic conditions. The power analysis shows that treatment effects of practically significant magnitude may be unlikely to be detected with just four replicates, as at Chitedze, under either a simple randomised control trial or a factorial experiment. Given logistical and financial constraints, it is important to design trials with fewer treatments but more replicates to gain enough statistical power and to pay attention to the selection of treatments to given an informative outcome

Soil and landscape factors influence geospatial variation in maize grain zinc concentration in Malawi

Dietary zinc (Zn) deficiency is widespread globally, and in particular among people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In Malawi, dietary sources of Zn are dominated by maize and spatially dependent variation in grain Zn concentration, which will affect dietary Zn intake, has been reported at distances of up to ~ 100 km. The aim of this study was to identify potential soil properties and environmental covariates which might explain this longer-range spatial variation in maize grain Zn concentration. Data for maize grain Zn concentrations, soil properties, and environmental covariates were obtained from a spatially representative survey in Malawi (n = 1600 locations). Labile and non-labile soil Zn forms were determined using isotopic dilution methods, alongside conventional agronomic soil analyses. Soil properties and environmental covariates as potential predictors of the concentration of Zn in maize grain were tested using a priori expert rankings and false discovery rate (FDR) controls within the linear mixed model (LMM) framework that informed the original survey design. Mean and median grain Zn concentrations were 21.8 and 21.5 mg kg−1, respectively (standard deviation 4.5; range 10.0–48.1). A LMM for grain Zn concentration was constructed for which the independent variables: soil pH(water), isotopically exchangeable Zn (ZnE), and diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) extractable Zn (ZnDTPA) had predictive value (p < 0.01 in all cases, with FDR controlled at < 0.05). Downscaled mean annual temperature also explained a proportion of the spatial variation in grain Zn concentration. Evidence for spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentrations in Malawi is robust within the LMM framework used in this study, at distances of up to ~ 100 km. Spatial predictions from this LMM provide a basis for further investigation of variations in the contribution of staple foods to Zn nutrition, and where interventions to increase dietary Zn intake (e.g. biofortification) might be most effective. Other soil and landscape factors influencing spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentration, along with factors operating over shorter distances such as choice of crop variety and agronomic practices, require further exploration beyond the scope of the design of this survey

The nutritional quality of cereals varies geospatially in Ethiopia and Malawi

Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) remain widespread among people in sub-Saharan Africa1,2,3,4,5, where access to sufficient food from plant and animal sources that is rich in micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) is limited due to socioeconomic and geographical reasons4,5,6. Here we report the micronutrient composition (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc) of staple cereal grains for most of the cereal production areas in Ethiopia and Malawi. We show that there is geospatial variation in the composition of micronutrients that is nutritionally important at subnational scales. Soil and environmental covariates of grain micronutrient concentrations included soil pH, soil organic matter, temperature, rainfall and topography, which were specific to micronutrient and crop type. For rural households consuming locally sourced food—including many smallholder farming communities—the location of residence can be the largest influencing factor in determining the dietary intake of micronutrients from cereals. Positive relationships between the concentration of selenium in grain and biomarkers of selenium dietary status occur in both countries. Surveillance of MNDs on the basis of biomarkers of status and dietary intakes from national- and regional-scale food-composition data1,2,3,4,5,6,7 could be improved using subnational data on the composition of grain micronutrients. Beyond dietary diversification, interventions to alleviate MNDs, such as food fortification8,9 and biofortification to increase the micronutrient concentrations in crops10,11, should account for geographical effects that can be larger in magnitude than intervention outcomes