Advancing the application of systems thinking in health : understanding the dynamics of neonatal mortality in Uganda

Systems thinking in health encompasses linkages, interactions, feedbacks, and processes between elements that comprise a whole system, including the complexity of a disease or condition itself (such as neonatal mortality) and the systems within which they are interacting and evolving, in this case the health system. Data analysis and brainstorming sessions were used to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) depicting the causes of neonatal mortality. The study explores how systems thinking tools, more specifically CLDs and system dynamics modelling can help better understand the complexity underlying factors behind stagnant neonatal mortality rates in Uganda

Elevated serum IL-10 is associated with severity of neonatal encephalopathy and adverse early childhood outcomes

BACKGROUND: Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) contributes substantially to child mortality and disability globally. We compared cytokine profiles in term Ugandan neonates with and without NE, with and without perinatal infection or inflammation and identified biomarkers predicting neonatal and early childhood outcomes. METHODS: In this exploratory biomarker study, serum IL-1α, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNFα, and VEGF (<12 h) were compared between NE and non-NE infants with and without perinatal infection/inflammation. Neonatal (severity of NE, mortality) and early childhood (death or neurodevelopmental impairment to 2.5 years) outcomes were assessed. Predictors of outcomes were explored with multivariable linear and logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses. RESULTS: Cytokine assays on 159 NE and 157 non-NE infants were performed; data on early childhood outcomes were available for 150 and 129, respectively. NE infants had higher IL-10 (p < 0.001), higher IL-6 (p < 0.017), and lower VEGF (p < 0.001) levels. Moderate and severe NE was associated with higher IL-10 levels compared to non-NE infants (p < 0.001). Elevated IL-1α was associated with perinatal infection/inflammation (p = 0.013). Among NE infants, IL-10 predicted neonatal mortality (p = 0.01) and adverse early childhood outcome (adjusted OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.35-3.86, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a potential role for IL-10 as a biomarker for adverse outcomes after neonatal encephalopathy. IMPACT: Neonatal encephalopathy is a common cause of child death and disability globally. Inflammatory cytokines are potential biomarkers of encephalopathy severity and outcome. In this Ugandan health facility-based cohort, neonatal encephalopathy was associated with elevated serum IL-10 and IL-6, and reduced VEGF at birth. Elevated serum IL-10 within 12 h after birth predicted severity of neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal mortality, and adverse early childhood developmental outcomes, independent of perinatal infection or inflammation, and provides evidence to the contribution of the inflammatory processes. Our findings support a role for IL-10 as a biomarker for adverse outcomes after neonatal encephalopathy in a sub-Saharan African cohort

Early Childhood Outcomes After Neonatal Encephalopathy in Uganda: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) is a leading cause of global child mortality. Survivor outcomes in low-resource settings are poorly described. We present early childhood outcomes after NE in Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of term-born infants with NE (n = 210) and a comparison group of term non-encephalopathic (non-NE) infants (n = 409), assessing neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) and growth at 27-30 months. Relationships between early clinical parameters and later outcomes were summarised using risk ratios (RR). FINDINGS: Mortality by 27-30 months was 40·3% after NE and 3·8% in non-NE infants. Impairment-free survival occurred in 41·6% after NE and 98·7% of non-NE infants. Amongst NE survivors, 29·3% had NDI including 19·0% with cerebral palsy (CP), commonly bilateral spastic CP (64%); 10·3% had global developmental delay (GDD) without CP. CP was frequently associated with childhood seizures, vision and hearing loss and mortality. NDI was commonly associated with undernutrition (44·1% Z-score < - 2) and microcephaly (32·4% Z-score < - 2). Motor function scores were reduced in NE survivors without CP/GDD compared to non-NE infants (median difference - 8·2 (95% confidence interval; - 13·0, - 3·7)). Neonatal clinical seizures (RR 4.1(2.0-8.7)), abnormalities on cranial ultrasound, (RR 7.0(3.8-16.3), nasogastric feeding at discharge (RR 3·6(2·1-6·1)), and small head circumference at one year (Z-score < - 2, RR 4·9(2·9-5·6)) increased the risk of NDI. INTERPRETATION: In this sub-Saharan African population, death and neurodevelopmental disability after NE were common. CP was associated with sensorineural impairment, malnutrition, seizures and high mortality by 2 years. Early clinical parameters predicted impairment outcomes

Early cranial ultrasound findings among infants with neonatal encephalopathy in Uganda: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, the timing and nature of brain injury and their relation to mortality in neonatal encephalopathy (NE) are unknown. We evaluated cranial ultrasound (cUS) scans from term Ugandan infants with and without NE for evidence of brain injury. METHODS: Infants were recruited from a national referral hospital in Kampala. Cases (184) had NE and controls (100) were systematically selected unaffected term infants. All had cUS scans <36 h reported blind to NE status. RESULTS: Scans were performed at median age 11.5 (interquartile range (IQR): 5.2-20.2) and 8.4 (IQR: 3.6-13.5) hours, in cases and controls respectively. None had established antepartum injury. Major evolving injury was reported in 21.2% of the cases vs. 1.0% controls (P < 0.001). White matter injury was not significantly associated with bacteremia in encephalopathic infants (odds ratios (OR): 3.06 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98-9.60). Major cUS abnormality significantly increased the risk of neonatal death (case fatality 53.9% with brain injury vs. 25.9% without; OR: 3.34 (95% CI: 1.61-6.95)). CONCLUSION: In this low-resource setting, there was no evidence of established antepartum insult, but a high proportion of encephalopathic infants had evidence of major recent and evolving brain injury on early cUS imaging, suggesting prolonged or severe acute exposure to hypoxia-ischemia (HI). Early abnormalities were a significant predictor of death

Pilot randomized trial of therapeutic hypothermia with serial cranial ultrasound and 18-22 month follow-up for neonatal encephalopathy in a low resource hospital setting in Uganda: study protocol

Background: There is now convincing evidence that in industrialized countries therapeutic hypothermia for perinatal asphyxial encephalopathy increases survival with normal neurological function. However, the greatest burden of perinatal asphyxia falls in low and mid-resource settings where it is unclear whether therapeutic hypothermia is safe and effective.Aims: Under the UCL Uganda Women's Health Initiative, a pilot randomized controlled trial in infants with perinatal asphyxia was set up in the special care baby unit in Mulago Hospital, a large public hospital with similar to 20,000 births in Kampala, Uganda to determine:(i) The feasibility of achieving consent, neurological assessment, randomization and whole body cooling to a core temperature 33-34 degrees C using water bottles(ii) The temperature profile of encephalopathic infants with standard care(iii) The pattern, severity and evolution of brain tissue injury as seen on cranial ultrasound and relation with outcome(iv) The feasibility of neurodevelopmental follow-up at 18-22 months of ageMethods/Design: Ethical approval was obtained from Makerere University and Mulago Hospital. All infants were in-born. Parental consent for entry into the trial was obtained. Thirty-six infants were randomized either to standard care plus cooling (target rectal temperature of 33-34 degrees C for 72 hrs, started within 3 h of birth) or standard care alone. All other aspects of management were the same. Cooling was performed using water bottles filled with tepid tap water (25 degrees C). Rectal, axillary, ambient and surface water bottle temperatures were monitored continuously for the first 80 h. Encephalopathy scoring was performed on days 1-4, a structured, scorable neurological examination and head circumference were performed on days 7 and 17. Cranial ultrasound was performed on days 1, 3 and 7 and scored. Griffiths developmental quotient, head circumference, neurological examination and assessment of gross motor function were obtained at 18-22 months.Discussion: We will highlight differences in neonatal care and infrastructure that need to be taken into account when considering a large safety and efficacy RCT of therapeutic hypothermia in low and mid resource settings in the future

Setting research priorities to improve global newborn health and prevent stillbirths by 2025.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. METHODS: We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assessed and scored by 91 experts. RESULTS: Nine out of top ten identified priorities were in the domain of research on improving delivery of known interventions, with simplified neonatal resuscitation program and clinical algorithms and improved skills of community health workers leading the list. The top 10 priorities in the domain of development were led by ideas on improved Kangaroo Mother Care at community level, how to improve the accuracy of diagnosis by community health workers, and perinatal audits. The 10 leading priorities for discovery research focused on stable surfactant with novel modes of administration for preterm babies, ability to diagnose fetal distress and novel tocolytic agents to delay or stop preterm labour. CONCLUSION: These findings will assist both donors and researchers in supporting and conducting research to close the knowledge gaps for reducing neonatal mortality, morbidity and long term impairment. WHO, SNL and other partners will work to generate interest among key national stakeholders, governments, NGOs, and research institutes in these priorities, while encouraging research funders to support them. We will track research funding, relevant requests for proposals and trial registers to monitor if the priorities identified by this exercise are being addressed

Setting research priorities to improve global newborn health and prevent stillbirths by 2025

Background In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013-2025. Methods We used adapted Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methods for this prioritization exercise. We identified and approached the 200 most productive researchers and 400 program experts, and 132 of them submitted research questions online. These were collated into a set of 205 research questions, sent for scoring to the 600 identified experts, and were assessed and scored by 91 experts. Results Nine out of top ten identified priorities were in the domain of research on improving delivery of known interventions, with simplified neonatal resuscitation program and clinical algorithms and improved skills of community health workers leading the list. The top 10 priorities in the domain of development were led by ideas on improved Kangaroo Mother Care at community level, how to improve the accuracy of diagnosis by community health workers, and perinatal audits. The 10 leading priorities for discovery research focused on stable surfactant with novel modes of administration for preterm babies, ability to diagnose fetal distress and novel tocolytic agents to delay or stop preterm labour. Conclusion These findings will assist both donors and researchers in supporting and conducting research to close the knowledge gaps for reducing neonatal mortality, morbidity and long term impairment. WHO, SNL and other partners will work to generate interest among key national stakeholders, governments, NGOs, and research institutes in these priorities, while encouraging research funders to support them. We will track research funding, relevant requests for proposals and trial registers to monitor if the priorities identified by this exercise are being addressed

Prevalence of bloodstream pathogens is higher in neonatal encephalopathy cases vs. controls using a novel panel of real-time PCR assays.

BACKGROUND: In neonatal encephalopathy (NE), infectious co-morbidity is difficult to diagnose accurately, but may increase the vulnerability of the developing brain to hypoxia-ischemia. We developed a novel panel of species-specific real-time PCR assays to identify bloodstream pathogens amongst newborns with and without NE in Uganda. METHODOLOGY: Multiplex real-time PCR assays for important neonatal bloodstream pathogens (gram positive and gram negative bacteria, cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus(HSV) and P. falciparum) were performed on whole blood taken from 202 encephalopathic and 101 control infants. Automated blood culture (BACTEC) was performed for all cases and unwell controls. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prevalence of pathogenic bacterial species amongst infants with NE was 3.6%, 6.9% and 8.9%, with culture, PCR and both tests in combination, respectively. More encephalopathic infants than controls had pathogenic bacterial species detected (8.9%vs2.0%, p = 0.028) using culture and PCR in combination. PCR detected bacteremia in 11 culture negative encephalopathic infants (3 Group B Streptococcus, 1 Group A Streptococcus, 1 Staphylococcus aureus and 6 Enterobacteriacae). Coagulase negative staphylococcus, frequently detected by PCR amongst case and control infants, was considered a contaminant. Prevalence of CMV, HSV and malaria amongst cases was low (1.5%, 0.5% and 0.5%, respectively). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This real-time PCR panel detected more bacteremia than culture alone and provides a novel tool for detection of neonatal bloodstream pathogens that may be applied across a range of clinical situations and settings. Significantly more encephalopathic infants than controls had pathogenic bacterial species detected suggesting that infection may be an important risk factor for NE in this setting

Newborn survival in Uganda: a decade of change and future implications.

Each year in Uganda 141 000 children die before reaching their fifth birthday; 26% of these children die in their first month of life. In a setting of persistently high fertility rates, a crisis in human resources for health and a recent history of civil unrest, Uganda has prioritized Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 for child and maternal survival. As part of a multi-country analysis we examined change for newborn survival over the past decade through mortality and health system coverage indicators as well as national and donor funding for health, and policy and programme change. Between 2000 and 2010 Uganda's neonatal mortality rate reduced by 2.2% per year, which is greater than the regional average rate of decline but slower than national reductions in maternal mortality and under-five mortality after the neonatal period. While existing population-based data are insufficient to measure national changes in coverage and quality of services, national attention for maternal and child health has been clear and authorized from the highest levels. Attention and policy change for newborn health is comparatively recent. This recognized gap has led to a specific focus on newborn health through a national Newborn Steering Committee, which has been given a mandate from the Ministry of Health to advise on newborn survival issues since 2006. This multi-disciplinary and inter-agency network of stakeholders has been able to preside over a number of important policy changes at the level of facility care, education and training, community-based service delivery through Village Health Teams and changes to essential drugs and commodities. The committee's comprehensive reach has enabled rapid policy change and increased attention to newborn survival in a relatively short space of time. Translating this favourable policy environment into district-level implementation and high quality services is now the priority