May Material Bottlenecks Hamper the Global Energy Transition Towards the 1.5°C Target?

Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed to support a sustainable energy and mobility system. This paper examines the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials needed in key energy and transport technologies. The starting point is a global energy system scenario that is compatible with the 1.5°C target. To determine the material requirements, an extensive database was built up on the current and expected future specific demand of these materials in the key technologies studied. A second database describes the potential development of sub-technology market shares (e.g. different battery types) within a technology class (e.g. photovoltaics). A material flow analysis model was used to determine the annual and cumulative material requirements as well as the recycling potential. The results show that current production of all materials will have to be increased, in some cases significantly, in a short period of time to meet the anticipated demand for the energy and transportation system. In addition, the cumulative demand for some materials significantly exceeds current reserves and even resources. In particular, lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries, dysprosium and neodymium for permanent magnets (e.g. wind turbines and electric motors), and iridium as well as platinum in fuel cells and electrolyzers are affected. The construction of battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles thus represents a major driver of the growing material demand. Depending on the material, the expected shortages can be reduced or delayed by technology substitution, ambitious material recycling, an extension of technology lifetime, increased material efficiency, and a smaller future vehicle stock, but not entirely avoided. Hence, it can be expected that material bottlenecks will result in increases in material prices, at least in the short to medium term. What impact this will have on the transformation process itself still needs to be investigated in more detail

Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization

We integrate life cycle indicators for various technologies of an energy system model with high spatiotemporal detail and a focus on Europe and North Africa. Using multi-objective optimization, we calculate a pareto front that allows us to assess the trade-offs between system costs and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of future power systems. Furthermore, we perform environmental ex-post assessments of selected solutions using a broad set of life cycle impact categories. In a system with the least life cycle GHG emissions, the costs would increase by ~63%, thereby reducing life cycle GHG emissions by ~82% compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems mitigating a substantial part of life cycle GHG emissions with small increases in system costs show a trend towards a deployment of wind onshore, electricity grid and a decline in photovoltaic plants and Li-ion storage. Further reductions are achieved by the deployment of concentrated solar power, wind offshore and nuclear power but lead to considerably higher costs compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems that mitigate life cycle GHG emissions also perform better for most impact categories but have higher ionizing radiation, water use and increased fossil fuel demand driven by nuclear power. This study shows that it is crucial to consider upstream GHG emissions in future assessments, as they represent an inheritable part of total emissions in ambitious energy scenarios that, so far, mainly aim to reduce direct CO$_{2}$ emissions

May Material Bottlenecks Hamper the Global Energy Transition Towards the 1.5°C Target?

Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed for a sustainable energy and mobility system. This paper examines the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials that would result from an energy system that is compatible with the 1.5 °C target. It further analyses the risk for short- and mid-term material shortages. To determine the material requirements, an extensive prospective database was built up on the specific demand of these materials in key technologies. A second database describes the potential development of sub-technology market shares within a technology class. A material flow analysis model was used to determine the annual and cumulative material requirements as well as the recycling potential in the underlying scenario. The results show that production of all materials has to increase, in some cases significantly, in a short period of time to meet the demand for the energy and transportation system. In addition, the cumulative demand for some materials significantly exceeds current reserves and even resources. In particular, lithium (demand increase (DI) more than factor 10, cumulated demand (CD) exceeds reserves up to factor 2), cobalt (DI/CD: <7/<3), and nickel (CD/DI: <2.4/<1.4) for batteries, dysprosium (DI < 8) and neodymium (DI < 1.5) (for permanent magnets (wind turbines and electric motors), and iridium (DI < 2.9) as well as platinum (DI < 1.8) (fuel cells, electrolyzers) are affected. The construction of battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles thus represents a major driver of the material demand. Depending on the material, shortages can be reduced or delayed by technology substitution, material recycling, technology lifetime extension, increased material efficiency, and a smaller future vehicle stock, but not entirely avoided. Hence, it can be expected that material bottlenecks will result in increasing material prices, at least in the short to medium term

Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany

In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due to these complementary characteristics, the combination of energy system models and life cycle assessment thus allows comprehensive environmental sustainability assessments of technically and economically feasible energy system transformation pathways. We introduce FRITS, a FRamework for the assessment of environmental Impacts of Transformation Scenarios. FRITS links bottom-up energy system models with life cycle impact assessment indicators and quantifies the environmental impacts of transformation strategies of the entire energy system (power, heat, transport) over the transition period. We apply the framework to conduct an environmental assessment of multi-sectoral energy scenarios for Germany. Here, a ‘Target’ scenario reaching 80% reduction of energy-related direct CO2 emissions is compared with a ‘Reference’ scenario describing a less ambitious transformation pathway. The results show that compared to 2015 and the ‘Reference’ scenario, the ‘Target’ scenario performs better for most life cycle impact assessment indicators. However, the impacts of resource consumption and land use increase for the ‘Target’ scenario. These impacts are mainly caused by road passenger transport and biomass conversion

Prospective assessment of energy technologies: a comprehensive approach for sustainability assessment

Background: A further increase in renewable energy supply is needed to substitute fossil fuels and combat climate change. Each energy source and respective technologies have specific techno-economic and environmental characteristics as well as social implications. This paper presents a comprehensive approach for prospective sustainability assessment of energy technologies developed within the Helmholtz Initiative “Energy System 2050” (ES2050).Methods: The “ES2050 approach” comprises environmental, economic, and social assessment. It includes established life cycle based economic and environmental indicators, and social indicators derived from a normative concept of sustainable development. The elaborated social indicators, i.e. patent growth rate, acceptance, and domestic value added, address three different socio-technical areas, i.e. innovation (patents), public perception (acceptance), and public welfare (value added).Results: The implementation of the “ES2050 approach” is presented exemplarily and different sustainability indicators and respective results are discussed based on three emerging technologies and corresponding case studies: (1) synthetic biofuels for mobility; (2) hydrogen from wind power for mobility; and (3) batteries for stationary energy storage. For synthetic biofuel, the environmental advantages over fossil gasoline are most apparent for the impact categories Climate Change and Ionizing Radiation—human health. Domestic value added accounts for 66% for synthetic biofuel compared to 13% for fossil gasoline. All hydrogen supply options can be considered to become near to economic competitiveness with fossil fuels in the long term. Survey participants regard Explosion Hazard as the most pressing concern about hydrogen fuel stations. For Li-ion batteries, the results for patent growth rate indicate that they enter their maturity phase.Conclusions: The “ES2050 approach” enables a consistent prospective sustainability assessment of (emerging) energy technologies, supporting technology developers, decision-makers in politics, industry, and society with knowledge for further evaluation, steering, and governance. The approach presented is considered rather a starting point than a blueprint for the comprehensive assessment of renewable energy technologies though, especially for the suggested social indicators, their significance and their embedding in context scenarios for prospective assessments

Comparative patent analysis for the identification of global research trends for the case of battery storage, hydrogen and bioenergy

Patent documents provide knowledge about which countries are investing in certain technologies and make it possible to identify potential innovation trends. The aim of this article is to analyze trends in patenting that might result in innovations for three energy technologies: thermochemical conversion of biomass (Bioenergy), lithium-ion battery storage, and hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis. Based on different patent indicators, the most active countries are compared to provide insights into the global market position of a country, particularly Germany which is used as a reference here. In line with this, a freely available patent analysis software tool was developed directly using the European Patent Office database through their Open Patent Services. The results for named technologies show that patenting activity of Germany is low in comparison to other countries such as Japan, China, and the US. Whereas the position of Germany for batteries and hydrogen is comparable, bioenergy shows different results regarding the identified countries and the number of patents found. However, a broader context beyond patenting is suggested for consideration to make robust statements about particular technology trends. The presented tool and methodology in this study can serve as a blueprint for explorative assessments in any technological domain

Exploring long-term strategies for the German Energy Transition - A Review of Multi-Sector Energy Scenarios

This article systematically compares 26 different scenarios of climate-friendly energy systems, aiming at a reduction of CO2 emissions of at least 90% for Germany in 2050. Technical strategies in terms of technology or energy carrier mixes in the end-use sectors industry, buildings, and transport as well as in the conversion sectors are examined. In addition, the consequences of those different strategies in terms of electricity demand, installed capacity for electricity generation, demand for synthetic fuels and gases (P2X), etc. are looked at. Furthermore, imports of electricity and P2X are compared. In conclusion, there is a wide range of transformation pathways that are projected for Germany, and there is far from consensus on how to technically achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of at least 90% by 2050 in comparison to 1990 levels. This, in turn, illustrates that there is still much need for research and discussion to identify feasible and sustainable transformation strategies towards a 'net zero' energy system for Germany

Life cycle-based environmental impacts of energy system transformation strategies for Germany: Are climate and environmental protection conflicting goals?

In the development of climate-friendly energy system transformation trategies it is often ignored that environmental protection encompasses more than climate protection alone. Consequently, an assessment of nvironmental impacts of energy system transformation strategies is required if undesired environmental side effects of the energy system transformation are to be avoided and transformation strategies are to be developed that are both climate and environmentally friendly. For this presentation, ten structurally different transformation strategies for the German energy system were re-modelled (in a harmonized manner). Life cycle-based environmental impacts of the scenarios were assessed by coupling the scenario results with data from a life cycle inventory database focusing on energy and transport technologies. The results show that the transformation to a climate-friendly energy system reduces environmental impacts in many impact categories. However, exceptions occur with respect to the consumption of mineral resources, land use and certain human health indicators. The comparison of environmental impacts of moderately ambitious strategies (80% CO2 reduction) with very ambitious strategies (95% CO2 reduction) shows that there is a risk of increasing environmental impacts with increasing climate protection, although very ambitious strategies do not necessarily come along with higher environmental impacts than moderately ambitious strategies. A reduction of environmental impacts could be achieved by a moderate and - as far as possible - direct electrification of heat and transport, a balanced technology mix for electricity generation, by reducing the number and size of passenger cars and by reducing the environmental impacts from vehicle construction