Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements

In this paper, economic vulnerability is defined as the exposure of an economy to exogenous shocks, arising out of economic openness, while economic resilience is defined as the policy-induced ability of an economy to withstand or recover from the effects of such shocks. The paper briefly reviews the work already carried out on economic vulnerability and extends the research towards the development of a conceptual and methodological framework for the definition and measurement of economic resilience. Towards this end, the paper proposes an index of economic resilience gauging the adequacy of policy in four broad areas, namely macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, good governance and social development. The analysis of economic resilience explains how small economies can attain a relatively high level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita if they adopt appropriate policy stances. In other words, the relatively good economic performance of a number of small states is not because, but in spite of, their small size and inherent economic vulnerability. The results of this study can be used as a tool towards the formulation of policies aimed at overcoming the adverse consequences of economic vulnerability.economic vulnerability, economic resilience, small states

Measuring vulnerability : a methodological review and a refinement based on partner country and price volatility issues

Indexes of vulnerability are intended to measure the proneness of countries to exogenous shocks lying outside their control, or to the increased susceptibility of such countries to the adverse effects of these shocks. The main attempts to measure vulnerability found in the literature focus mainly on openness to international trade and capital flows, export concentration and dependence on strategic imports. This paper presents a conceptual refinement to these ideas by assessing the importance of the stability of partner countries and of price volatility as important determinants in the way in which such variables impact on vulnerability. Subject to the usual measurement problems, the index proposed here generally confirms that small states, particularly if insular, tend to face heightened degrees of vulnerability.peer-reviewe

Towards the development of the concept and the measurement of economic resilience

This paper develops a conceptual and methodological framework for the analysis and measurement of economic resilience. The working definition of economic resilience adopted in this paper is the "nurtured" ability of an economy to recover from or adjust to the effects of adverse shocks to which it may be inherently exposed. This concept is used to provide an explanation as to why a number of inherently vulnerable countries have attained relatively high levels of GOP per capita. The paper also presents a tentative approach aimed at developing an index of economic resilience covering four aspects namely macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, governance and social development.peer-reviewe

Profiling economic vulnerability and resilience in small states : conceptual underpinnings

Small states are economically vulnerable because of their inherent proneness to exogenous shocks over which they can exercise very little control, if any. Such shocks in the main emanate from the small states’ structural openness to international trade, their high dependence on a narrow range of exports and their reliance on strategic imports, notably fuel and food. The high degree of fluctuations in GDP and in export earnings registered by many small states is considered as one of the manifestations of exposure to exogenous shocks. In spite of this, there are a number of small states that have managed to generate a relatively high GDP per capita. This is ascribed to their economic resilience, which refers to the policy-induced ability of an economy to recover from or adjust to the negative impacts of adverse exogenous shocks.peer-reviewe

Winds as the origin of radio emission in z=2.5z=2.5 radio-quiet extremely red quasars

Most active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are radio-quiet, and the origin of their radio emission is not well-understood. One hypothesis is that this radio emission is a by-product of quasar-driven winds. In this paper, we present the radio properties of 108 extremely red quasars (ERQs) at $z=2-4$. ERQs are among the most luminous quasars ($L_{bol} \sim 10^{47-48}$ erg/s) in the Universe, with signatures of extreme ($\gg 1000$ km/s) outflows in their [OIII]$\lambda$5007 \AA\ emission, making them the best subjects to seek the connection between radio and outflow activity. All ERQs but one are unresolved in the radio on $\sim 10$ kpc scales, and the median radio luminosity of ERQs is $\nu L_\nu [{\rm 6\,GHz}] = 10^{41.0}$ erg/s, in the radio-quiet regime, but one to two orders of magnitude higher than that of other quasar samples. The radio spectra are steep, with a mean spectral index $\langle \alpha \rangle = -1.0$. In addition, ERQs neatly follow the extrapolation of the low-redshift correlation between radio luminosity and the velocity dispersion of [OIII]-emitting ionized gas. Uncollimated winds, with a power of one per cent of the bolometric luminosity, can account for all these observations. Such winds would interact with and shock the gas around the quasar and in the host galaxy, resulting in acceleration of relativistic particles and the consequent synchrotron emission observed in the radio. Our observations support the picture in which ERQs are signposts of extremely powerful episodes of quasar feedback, and quasar-driven winds as a contributor of the radio emission in the intermediate regime of radio luminosity $\nu L_\nu = 10^{39}-10^{42}$ erg/s.Comment: accepted by MNRA

An investigation of the evidence of benefits from climate compatible development

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on developing countries both through the climate impacts experienced, but also through the policies, programmes and projects adopted to address climate change. Climate change mitigation (actions taken to reduce the extent of climate change), adaptation (actions taken to ameliorate the impacts), and on-going development are all critical to reduce current and future losses associated with climate change, and to harness gains. In the context of limited resources to invest in climate change, policies, programmes, or projects that deliver ‘triple wins’ (i.e. generating climate adaptation, mitigation and development benefits) – also known as climate compatible development – are increasingly discussed by bilateral and multilateral donors. Yet there remains an absence of empirical evidence of the benefits and costs of triple win policies. The purpose of this paper is therefore to assess evidence of ‘triple wins’ on the ground, and the feasibility of triple wins that do not generate negative impacts. We describe the theoretical linkages that exist between adaptation, mitigation and development, as well as the trade-offs and synergies that might exist between them. Using four developing country studies, we make a simple assessment of the extent of climate compatible development policy in practice through the lens of ‘no-regrets’, ‘low regrets’ and ‘with regrets’ decision making. The lack of evidence of either policy or practice of triple wins significantly limits the capacity of donors to identify, monitor or evaluate ‘triple wins at this point in time. We recommend a more strategic assessment of the distributional and financial implications of 'triple wins' policies

The Impact and Successes of a Paediatric Endocrinology Fellowship Program in Africa

Background: The prevalence and distribution of endocrine disorders in children in Africa are not well known because most cases are often undiagnosed or diagnosed too late. The awareness of this led to the launch of the Paediatric Endocrinology Training Center for Africa (PETCA) designed to improve quality and access to health care by training paediatricians from Africa in paediatric endocrinology. Methods: The fellowship is undertaken over an 18-month period: six months of clinical and theoretical training in Kenya, nine months of project research at the fellow’s home country, and three months of consolidation in Kenya. Upon completion, certified paediatricians are expected to set up centers of excellence. Results: There have been two phases, phase I from January 2008 to October 2012 and phase II from January 2012 to April 2015. Fifty-four fellows from 12 African countries have been certified, 34 (phase I) and 20 (phase II). Over 1,000 patients with wide ranging diabetes and endocrine disorders have been diagnosed and treated and are being followed up at the centers of excellence. Conclusion: The successes of the PETCA initiative demonstrate the impact a capacity building and knowledge transfer model can have on people in resource-poor settings using limited resources

Integration and mining of malaria molecular, functional and pharmacological data: how far are we from a chemogenomic knowledge space?

The organization and mining of malaria genomic and post-genomic data is highly motivated by the necessity to predict and characterize new biological targets and new drugs. Biological targets are sought in a biological space designed from the genomic data from Plasmodium falciparum, but using also the millions of genomic data from other species. Drug candidates are sought in a chemical space containing the millions of small molecules stored in public and private chemolibraries. Data management should therefore be as reliable and versatile as possible. In this context, we examined five aspects of the organization and mining of malaria genomic and post-genomic data: 1) the comparison of protein sequences including compositionally atypical malaria sequences, 2) the high throughput reconstruction of molecular phylogenies, 3) the representation of biological processes particularly metabolic pathways, 4) the versatile methods to integrate genomic data, biological representations and functional profiling obtained from X-omic experiments after drug treatments and 5) the determination and prediction of protein structures and their molecular docking with drug candidate structures. Progresses toward a grid-enabled chemogenomic knowledge space are discussed.Comment: 43 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Malaria Journa