Long-term mortality prediction after operations for type A ascending aortic dissection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are few long-term mortality prediction studies after acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A and none were performed using new models such as neural networks (NN) or support vector machines (SVM) which may show a higher discriminatory potency than standard multivariable models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used 32 risk factors identified by Literature search and previously assessed in short-term outcome investigations. Models were trained (50%) and validated (50%) on 2 random samples from a consecutive 235-patient cohort. NN were run only on patients with complete data for all included variables (N = 211); SVM on the overall group. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and Gini's coefficients along with classification performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 84 deaths (36%) occurring at 564 ± 48 days (95%CI from 470 to 658 days). Patients with complete variables had a slightly lower death rate (60 of 211, 28%). NN classified 44 of 60 (73%) dead patients and 147 of 151 (97%) long-term survivors using 5 covariates: immediate post-operative chronic renal failure, circulatory arrest time, the type of surgery on ascending aorta plus hemi-arch, extracorporeal circulation time and the presence of Marfan habitus. Global accuracies of training and validation NN were excellent with AUC respectively 0.871 and 0.870 but classification errors were high among patients who died. Training SVM, using a larger number of covariates, showed no false negative or false positive cases among 118 randomly selected patients (error = 0%, AUC 1.0) whereas validation SVM, among 117 patients, provided 5 false negative and 11 false positive cases (error = 22%, AUC 0.821, p < 0.01 versus NN results). An html file was produced to adopt and manipulate the selected parameters for practical predictive purposes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both NN and SVM accurately selected a few operative and immediate post-operative factors and the Marfan habitus as long-term mortality predictors in AAD Type A. Although these factors were not new per se, their combination may be used in practice to index death risk post-operatively with good accuracy.</p

Chapter 12: Systematic Review of Prognostic Tests

A number of new biological markers are being studied as predictors of disease or adverse medical events among those who already have a disease. Systematic reviews of this growing literature can help determine whether the available evidence supports use of a new biomarker as a prognostic test that can more accurately place patients into different prognostic groups to improve treatment decisions and the accuracy of outcome predictions. Exemplary reviews of prognostic tests are not widely available, and the methods used to review diagnostic tests do not necessarily address the most important questions about prognostic tests that are used to predict the time-dependent likelihood of future patient outcomes. We provide suggestions for those interested in conducting systematic reviews of a prognostic test. The proposed use of the prognostic test should serve as the framework for a systematic review and to help define the key questions. The outcome probabilities or level of risk and other characteristics of prognostic groups are the most salient statistics for review and perhaps meta-analysis. Reclassification tables can help determine how a prognostic test affects the classification of patients into different prognostic groups, hence their treatment. Review of studies of the association between a potential prognostic test and patient outcomes would have little impact other than to determine whether further development as a prognostic test might be warranted

Strengthening the Reporting of Genetic Risk Prediction Studies: The GRIPS Statement

Cecile Janssens and colleagues present the GRIPS Statement, a checklist to help strengthen the reporting of genetic risk prediction studies

Development of the lateral ventricular choroid plexus in a marsupial, Monodelphis domestica

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Choroid plexus epithelial cells are the site of blood/cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier and regulate molecular transfer between the two compartments. Their mitotic activity in the adult is low. During development, the pattern of growth and timing of acquisition of functional properties of plexus epithelium are not known.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Numbers and size of choroid plexus epithelial cells and their nuclei were counted and measured in the lateral ventricular plexus from the first day of its appearance until adulthood. Newborn <it>Monodelphis </it>pups were injected with 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU) at postnatal day 3 (P3), P4 and P5. Additional animals were injected at P63, P64 and P65. BrdU-immunopositive nuclei were counted and their position mapped in the plexus structure at different ages after injections. Double-labelling immunocytochemistry with antibodies to plasma protein identified post-mitotic cells involved in protein transfer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Numbers of choroid plexus epithelial cells increased 10-fold between the time of birth and adulthood. In newborn pups each consecutive injection of BrdU labelled 20-40 of epithelial cells counted. After 3 injections, numbers of BrdU positive cells remained constant for at least 2 months. BrdU injections at an older age (P63, P64, P65) resulted in a smaller number of labelled plexus cells. Numbers of plexus cells immunopositive for both BrdU and plasma protein increased with age indicating that protein transferring properties are acquired post mitotically. Labelled nuclei were only detected on the dorsal arm of the plexus as it grows from the neuroependyma, moving along the structure in a 'conveyor belt' like fashion.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present study established that lateral ventricular choroid plexus epithelial cells are born on the dorsal side of the structure only. Cells born in the first few days after choroid plexus differentiation from the neuroependyma remain present even two months later. Protein-transferring properties are acquired post-mitotically and relatively early in plexus development.</p

How do psychosocial determinants in migrant women in the Netherlands differ from these among their counterparts in their country of origin? A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Migration of non-Western women into Western countries often results in an increase in smoking prevalence among migrant women. To gain more insight into how to prevent this increase, we compared psychosocial determinants of smoking between Surinamese women in Suriname and those in the Netherlands.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained between 2000 and 2004 from two cross-sectional studies, the CVRFO study in Suriname (n = 702) and the SUNSET study in the Netherlands (n = 674). For analyses of determinants, we collected additional data in CVRFO study population (n = 85). Differences between the two groups were analysed by chi-square analyses and logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As was found in other studies among migrant women, more Surinamese migrant women in the Netherlands smoked (31%) than women in Suriname (16%). More Surinamese women in the Netherlands than in Suriname had a positive affective and cognitive attitude towards smoking (OR = 2.6 (95%CI 1.05;6.39) and OR = 3.3 (95%CI 1.31;8.41)). They perceived a positive norm within their partners and friends regarding smoking more frequently (OR = 6.5 (95%CI 2.7;15.6) and OR = 3.3 (95%CI 1.50;7.25)).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Migrant women are more positive towards smoking and perceived a more positive norm towards smoking when compared with women in the country of origin. Interventions targeted at the psychosocial determinants regarding smoking for newly migrated women, in particular the consequences of smoking and the norm towards smoking might help to prevent an increase in smoking in those populations.</p

External validation and calibration of IVFpredict:A national prospective cohort study of 130,960 in vitro fertilisation Cycles

© 2015 Smith et al. Background Accurately predicting the probability of a live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is important for patients, healthcare providers and policy makers. Two prediction models (Templeton and IVFpredict) have been previously developed from UK data and are widely used internationally. The more recent of these, IVFpredict, was shown to have greater predictive power in the development dataset. The aim of this study was external validation of the two models and comparison of their predictive ability. Methods and Findings 130,960 IVF cycles undertaken in the UK in 2008-2010 were used to validate and compare the Templeton and IVFpredict models. Discriminatory power was calculated using the area under the receiver-operator curve and calibration assessed using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The scaled modified Brier score, with measures of reliability and resolution, were calculated to assess overall accuracy. Both models were compared after updating for current live birth rates to ensure that the average observed and predicted live birth rates were equal. The discriminative power of both methods was comparable: the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.628 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.625-0.631) for IVFpredict and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.613-0.620) for the Templeton model. IVFpredict had markedly better calibration and higher diagnostic accuracy, with calibration plot intercept of 0.040 (95% CI: 0.017-0.063) and slope of 0.932 (95% CI: 0.839 - 1.025) compared with 0.080 (95% CI: 0.044-0.117) and 1.419 (95% CI: 1.149-1.690) for the Templeton model. Both models underestimated the live birth rate, but this was particularly marked in the Templeton model. Updating the models to reflect improvements in live birth rates since the models were developed enhanced their performance, but IVFpredict remained superior. Conclusion External validation in a large population cohort confirms IVFpredict has superior discrimination and calibration for informing patients, clinicians and healthcare policy makers of the probability of live birth following IVF

Is it possible to diagnose the therapeutic adherence of patients with COPD in clinical practice? A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Therapeutic adherence of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is poor. It is therefore necessary to determine the magnitude of non-adherence to develop strategies to correct this behaviour. The purpose of this study was to analyse the diagnostic validity of indirect adherence methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sample: 195 COPD patients undergoing scheduled inhaled treatment attending 5 Primary Care Centres of Malaga, Spain. Variables: Sociodemographic profile, illness data, spirometry, quality of life (St. George Respiratory Questionnaire: SGRQ), and inhaled medication counting (count of dose/pill or electronic monitoring) were collected. The patient's knowledge of COPD (Batalla test:BT),their attitude towards treatment (Morisky-Green test: MGT) and their self-reported therapeutic adherence (Haynes-Sackett test: HST) were used as methods of evaluating adherence. The follow-up consisted four visits over one year (the recruitment visit: V0; and after 1 month:V1; 6 months:V2; and 1 year:V3).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean age was 69.59 (95% CI, 68.29-70.89) years old and 93.8% were male. Other findings included: 85.4% had a low educational level, 23.6% were smokers, 71.5% mild-moderate COPD stage with a FEV1 = 56.86 (SD = 18.85); exacerbations per year = 1.41(95% CI, 1-1.8). The total SGRQ score was 44.96 (95% CI, 42.46-47.46), showing a mild self-perceived impairment in health. The prevalence of adherence (dose/pill count) was 68.1% (95% CI, 60.9-75.3) at V1, 80% (95% CI, 73-87) at V2 and 84% (95% CI, 77.9) at V3. The MGT showed a specificity of 67.34% at V1, 76.19% at V2 and 69.62% at V3. The sensitivity was 53.33% at V1, 66.66% at V2 and 33.33% at V3.The BT showed a specificity of 55.1% at V1, 70.23% at V2 and 67.09% at V3. The sensitivity was 68.88% at V1, 71.43% at V2 and 46.66% at V3. Considering both tests together, the specificity was 86.73% at V1, 94.04% at V2 and 92.49% at V3 and the sensitivity was 37.77% at V1, 47.62% at V2 and 13.3% at V3.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prevalence of treatment adherence changes over time. Indirect methods (dose/pill count and self-reported) can be useful to detect non-adherence in COPD patients. The combination of MGT and BT is the best approach to test self-reported adherence.</p

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer: early response prediction with quantitative MR imaging and spectroscopy.

A prospective study was undertaken in women undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy for locally advanced breast cancer in order to determine the ability of quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and proton spectroscopy (MRS) to predict ultimate tumour response (percentage decrease in volume) or to detect early response. Magnetic resonance imaging and MRS were carried out before treatment and after the second of six treatment cycles. Pharmacokinetic parameters were derived from T1-weighted dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, water apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) was measured, and tissue water:fat peak area ratios and water T2 were measured using unsuppressed one-dimensional proton spectroscopic imaging (30 and 135 ms echo times). Pharmacokinetic parameters and ADC did not detect early response; however, early changes in water:fat ratios and water T2 (after cycle two) demonstrated substantial prognostic efficacy. Larger decreases in water T2 accurately predicted final volume response in 69% of cases (11/16) while maintaining 100% specificity and positive predictive value. Small/absent decreases in water:fat ratios accurately predicted final volume non-response in 50% of cases (3/6) while maintaining 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. This level of accuracy might permit clinical application where early, accurate prediction of non-response would permit an early change to second-line treatment, thus sparing patients unnecessary toxicity, psychological morbidity and delay of initiation of effective treatment