Three Essays on Game Theory and Computation

The results section of my thesis includes three chapters. The first two chapters are on theoretical game theory. In both chapters, by mathematical modelling and game theoretical tools, I am predicting the behaviour of the players in some real world issues. Hoteling-Downs model plays an important role in the modern political interpretations. The first chapter of this study investigates an extension of Hoteling-Downs model to have multi-dimensional strategy space and asymmetric candidates. Chapter 3 looks into the inspection game where the inspections are not the same in the series of sequential inspections. By modelling the game as a series of recursive zero-sum games I find the optimal strategy of the players in the equilibrium. The forth chapter investigates direct optimization methods for large scale problems. Using Matlab implementations of Genetic and Nelder-Mead algorithms, I compare the efficiency and accuracy of the most famous direct optimization methods for unconstraint optimization problems based on differing number of variables

The clinical characteristics of familial cluster headache

BACKGROUND: A positive family history predisposes to the development of cluster headache. The distinct characteristics of familial cluster headache have yet to be confirmed, however, evidence suggests a younger age of onset and higher proportion of females in this subgroup. OBJECTIVES: To assess the rate and mode of inheritance of familial cluster headache in a tertiary referral centre for headache. To describe the clinical features of familial cluster headache. METHODS: A retrospective study conducted between 2007 and 2017. Cluster headache was confirmed in probands and affected relatives. Differences in demographics, clinical characteristics, and response-to-treatment in familial cluster headache were delineated through multivariate analysis using a control cohort of 597 patients with sporadic cluster headache. RESULTS: Familial cluster headache was confirmed in 48 (7.44%) patients and predominantly reflected an autosomal dominant mode of inheritance with reduced penetrance. Familial cases were more likely to report nasal blockage (OR 4.06, 95% CI; 2.600-6.494, p < 0.001) during an attack and a higher rate of concurrent short-lasting unilateral neuralgiform headache with conjunctival injection and tearing (OR 3.76, 95% CI; 1.572-9.953, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: These findings add to evidence suggesting a genetic component to cluster headache. Here, we demonstrated prominent nasal blockage, and a higher occurrence of concomitant short-lasting unilateral neuralgiform headache with conjunctival injection and tearing in this subgroup, further delineating the phenotype

Voretigene Neparvovec for Treating Inherited Retinal Dystrophies Caused by RPE65 Gene Mutations: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Highly Specialised Technology Appraisal

The UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) considered evidence for voretigene neparvovec (VN; Luxturna®) for the treatment of RPE65-mediated inherited retinal dystrophies (IRD) within its highly specialised technology programme. This paper summarises the evidence provided by the company; the appraisal of the evidence by the Peninsula Technology Appraisal Group, who were commissioned to act as the independent evidence review group (ERG); and the development of the NICE guidance by the appraisal committee. The evidence presented by the company highlighted the significant lifelong burden of IRD for patients and carers. Evidence to support the effectiveness of VN was lacking, but the available evidence showed a modest, sustained improvement across a variety of vision-related outcomes. While patients would remain visually impaired, the committee considered that VN would prevent further deterioration in vision. The modelling approach used by the company had a number of limitations and relied heavily upon a large volume of clinical expert input to produce cost-effectiveness estimates with large uncertainty around long-term effectiveness. The ERG’s main concerns revolved around these long-term outcomes and the plausibility of utility values. The NICE committee were convinced that the clinical benefits of VN were important and an appropriate use of national health service resources within a specialised service. The committee concluded that a high unmet need existed in patients with RPE65-mediated IRD and that VN represents a step change in the management of this condition

Neurofilament light levels predict clinical progression and death in multiple system atrophy

Disease-modifying treatments are currently being trialed in multiple system atrophy (MSA). Approaches based solely on clinical measures are challenged by heterogeneity of phenotype and pathogenic complexity. Neurofilament light chain protein has been explored as a reliable biomarker in several neurodegenerative disorders but data in multiple system atrophy have been limited. Therefore, neurofilament light chain is not yet routinely used as an outcome measure in MSA. We aimed to comprehensively investigate the role and dynamics of neurofilament light chain in multiple system atrophy combined with cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical and imaging scales and for subject trial selection. In this cohort study we recruited cross-sectional and longitudinal cases in multicentre European set-up. Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain concentrations were measured at baseline from 212 multiple system atrophy cases, annually for a mean period of 2 years in 44 multiple system atrophy patients in conjunction with clinical, neuropsychological and MRI brain assessments. Baseline neurofilament light chain characteristics were compared between groups. Cox regression was used to assess survival; ROC analysis to assess the ability of neurofilament light chain to distinguish between multiple system atrophy patients and healthy controls. Multivariate linear mixed effects models were used to analyse longitudinal neurofilament light chain changes and correlated with clinical and imaging parameters. Polynomial models were used to determine the differential trajectories of neurofilament light chain in multiple system atrophy. We estimated sample sizes for trials aiming to decrease NfL levels. We show that in multiple system atrophy, baseline plasma neurofilament light chain levels were better predictors of clinical progression, survival, and degree of brain atrophy than the NfL rate of change. Comparative analysis of multiple system atrophy progression over the course of disease, using plasma neurofilament light chain and clinical rating scales, indicated that neurofilament light chain levels rise as the motor symptoms progress, followed by deceleration in advanced stages. Sample size prediction suggested that significantly lower trial participant numbers would be needed to demonstrate treatment effects when incorporating plasma neurofilament light chain values into multiple system atrophy clinical trials in comparison to clinical measures alone. In conclusion, neurofilament light chain correlates with clinical disease severity, progression, and prognosis in multiple system atrophy. Combined with clinical and imaging analysis, neurofilament light chain can inform patient stratification and serve as a reliable biomarker of treatment response in future multiple system atrophy trials of putative disease-modifying agents.European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programm

Making orphan drugs and services available and accessible for people who live with rare diseases : what has been done? A systematic scoping review

Objectives: Rare diseases are recognized as non-prevalent health disorders. Availability, accessibility, and affordability of Orphan Drugs (ODs), alongside genetic testing, are the major contributors to ensuring no patient is excluded by the health system. Therefore, making ODs available and accessible has been a challenge even for high-income nations. This review aims to summarize the evidence on the availability and accessibility of orphan drugs and other required resources for managing rare diseases. Methods: The Joanna Briggs Institute scoping review method was used as the analytical framework. We searched Medline, and Embase through Ovid, and Web of Science. We used Guilford et al. definition and classification of accessibility and its dimensions to synthesize the evidence. Results: The majority of the final included evidence is about the financial, and then availability and physical accessibility to ODs. Furthermore, almost all the evidence comes from high-income countries. Conclusion: The principal hurdles to the availability and accessibility of ODs and other related services are very high prices, lack of a legal framework, and budgetary impact on public funding. A lack of reimbursement mechanisms and lower availability of other resources are among other problems

Making orphan drugs and services available and accessible for people who live with rare diseases: what has been done? a systematic scoping review

Rare diseases are recognized as non-prevalent health disorders. Availability, accessibility, and affordability of Orphan Drugs (ODs), alongside genetic testing, are the major contributors to ensuring no patient is excluded by the health system. Therefore, making ODs available and accessible has been a challenge even for high-income nations. This review aims to summarize the evidence on the availability and accessibility of orphan drugs and other required resources for managing rare diseases. The Joanna Briggs Institute scoping review method was used as the analytical framework. We searched Medline, and Embase through Ovid, and Web of Science. We used Guilford et al. definition and classification of accessibility and its dimensions to synthesize the evidence. The majority of the final included evidence is about the financial, and then availability and physical accessibility to ODs. Furthermore, almost all the evidence comes from high-income countries. The principal hurdles to the availability and accessibility of ODs and other related services are very high prices, lack of a legal framework, and budgetary impact on public funding. A lack of reimbursement mechanisms and lower availability of other resources are among other problems.</p

Neurofilament light levels predict clinical progression and death in multiple system atrophy

Disease-modifying treatments are currently being trialed in multiple system atrophy (MSA). Approaches based solely on clinical measures are challenged by heterogeneity of phenotype and pathogenic complexity. Neurofilament light chain protein has been explored as a reliable biomarker in several neurodegenerative disorders but data in multiple system atrophy have been limited. Therefore, neurofilament light chain is not yet routinely used as an outcome measure in MSA. We aimed to comprehensively investigate the role and dynamics of neurofilament light chain in multiple system atrophy combined with cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical and imaging scales and for subject trial selection. In this cohort study we recruited cross-sectional and longitudinal cases in multicentre European set-up. Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain concentrations were measured at baseline from 212 multiple system atrophy cases, annually for a mean period of 2 years in 44 multiple system atrophy patients in conjunction with clinical, neuropsychological and MRI brain assessments. Baseline neurofilament light chain characteristics were compared between groups. Cox regression was used to assess survival; ROC analysis to assess the ability of neurofilament light chain to distinguish between multiple system atrophy patients and healthy controls. Multivariate linear mixed effects models were used to analyse longitudinal neurofilament light chain changes and correlated with clinical and imaging parameters. Polynomial models were used to determine the differential trajectories of neurofilament light chain in multiple system atrophy. We estimated sample sizes for trials aiming to decrease NfL levels. We show that in multiple system atrophy, baseline plasma neurofilament light chain levels were better predictors of clinical progression, survival, and degree of brain atrophy than the NfL rate of change. Comparative analysis of multiple system atrophy progression over the course of disease, using plasma neurofilament light chain and clinical rating scales, indicated that neurofilament light chain levels rise as the motor symptoms progress, followed by deceleration in advanced stages. Sample size prediction suggested that significantly lower trial participant numbers would be needed to demonstrate treatment effects when incorporating plasma neurofilament light chain values into multiple system atrophy clinical trials in comparison to clinical measures alone. In conclusion, neurofilament light chain correlates with clinical disease severity, progression, and prognosis in multiple system atrophy. Combined with clinical and imaging analysis, neurofilament light chain can inform patient stratification and serve as a reliable biomarker of treatment response in future multiple system atrophy trials of putative disease-modifying agents