Associations of snoring frequency and intensity in pregnancy with time‐to‐delivery

BackgroundSleep‐disordered breathing (SDB) is linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, little is known about the association of SDB with timing of delivery. We examined the association of snoring frequency, a key SDB marker, and snoring intensity, a correlate of SDB severity, with time‐to‐delivery among a cohort of pregnant women.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, 1483 third trimester pregnant women were recruited from the University of Michigan prenatal clinics. Women completed a questionnaire about their sleep, and demographic and pregnancy information was abstracted from medical charts. After exclusion of those with hypertension or diabetes, 954 women were classified into two groups by their snoring onset timing, chronic or pregnancy‐onset. Within each of these groups, women were divided into four groups based on their snoring frequency and intensity: non‐snorers; infrequent‐quiet; frequent‐quiet; or frequent‐loud snorers. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the association between snoring frequency and intensity and time‐to‐delivery, adjusting for maternal characteristics.ResultsChronic snoring was reported by half of the pregnant women, and of those, 7% were frequent‐loud snorers. Deliveries before 38 weeks’ gestation are completed occurred among 25% of women with chronic, frequent‐loud snoring. Compared with pre‐pregnancy non‐snorers, women with chronic frequent‐loud snoring had an increased hazard ratio for delivery (adjusted hazard ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.04, 2.45).ConclusionsSnoring frequency and intensity is associated with time‐to‐delivery in women absent of hypertension or diabetes. Frequent‐loud snoring may have a clinical utility to identify otherwise low‐risk women who are likely to deliver earlier.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146650/1/ppe12511.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146650/2/ppe12511_am.pd

Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming

Competing risk and heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials

It has been demonstrated that patients enrolled in clinical trials frequently have a large degree of variation in their baseline risk for the outcome of interest. Thus, some have suggested that clinical trial results should routinely be stratified by outcome risk using risk models, since the summary results may otherwise be misleading. However, variation in competing risk is another dimension of risk heterogeneity that may also underlie treatment effect heterogeneity. Understanding the effects of competing risk heterogeneity may be especially important for pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials, which seek to include traditionally excluded patients, such as the elderly or complex patients with multiple comorbidities. Indeed, the observed effect of an intervention is dependent on the ratio of outcome risk to competing risk, and these risks – which may or may not be correlated – may vary considerably in patients enrolled in a trial. Further, the effects of competing risk on treatment effect heterogeneity can be amplified by even a small degree of treatment related harm. Stratification of trial results along both the competing and the outcome risk dimensions may be necessary if pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials are to provide the clinically useful information their advocates intend

Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years

Understanding the internal ocean variability and its influence on climate is imperative for society. A key aspect concerns the enigmatic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a feature defined by a 60- to 90-year variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. The nature and origin of the AMO is uncertain, and it remains unknown whether it represents a persistent periodic driver in the climate system, or merely a transient feature. Here, we show that distinct, ∼55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years. We test and reject the hypothesis that this climate oscillation was directly forced by periodic changes in solar activity. We therefore conjecture that a quasi-persistent ∼55- to 70-year AMO, linked to internal ocean-atmosphere variability, existed during large parts of the Holocene. Our analyses further suggest that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation

A Systems Approach for Tumor Pharmacokinetics

Recent advances in genome inspired target discovery, small molecule screens, development of biological and nanotechnology have led to the introduction of a myriad of new differently sized agents into the clinic. The differences in small and large molecule delivery are becoming increasingly important in combination therapies as well as the use of drugs that modify the physiology of tumors such as anti-angiogenic treatment. The complexity of targeting has led to the development of mathematical models to facilitate understanding, but unfortunately, these studies are often only applicable to a particular molecule, making pharmacokinetic comparisons difficult. Here we develop and describe a framework for categorizing primary pharmacokinetics of drugs in tumors. For modeling purposes, we define drugs not by their mechanism of action but rather their rate-limiting step of delivery. Our simulations account for variations in perfusion, vascularization, interstitial transport, and non-linear local binding and metabolism. Based on a comparison of the fundamental rates determining uptake, drugs were classified into four categories depending on whether uptake is limited by blood flow, extravasation, interstitial diffusion, or local binding and metabolism. Simulations comparing small molecule versus macromolecular drugs show a sharp difference in distribution, which has implications for multi-drug therapies. The tissue-level distribution differs widely in tumors for small molecules versus macromolecular biologic drugs, and this should be considered in the design of agents and treatments. An example using antibodies in mouse xenografts illustrates the different in vivo behavior. This type of transport analysis can be used to aid in model development, experimental data analysis, and imaging and therapeutic agent design.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant T32 CA079443

A Computational Model of the Ionic Currents, Ca2+ Dynamics and Action Potentials Underlying Contraction of Isolated Uterine Smooth Muscle

Uterine contractions during labor are discretely regulated by rhythmic action potentials (AP) of varying duration and form that serve to determine calcium-dependent force production. We have employed a computational biology approach to develop a fuller understanding of the complexity of excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling of uterine smooth muscle cells (USMC). Our overall aim is to establish a mathematical platform of sufficient biophysical detail to quantitatively describe known uterine E-C coupling parameters and thereby inform future empirical investigations of physiological and pathophysiological mechanisms governing normal and dysfunctional labors. From published and unpublished data we construct mathematical models for fourteen ionic currents of USMCs: currents (L- and T-type), current, an hyperpolarization-activated current, three voltage-gated currents, two -activated current, -activated current, non-specific cation current, - exchanger, - pump and background current. The magnitudes and kinetics of each current system in a spindle shaped single cell with a specified surface area∶volume ratio is described by differential equations, in terms of maximal conductances, electrochemical gradient, voltage-dependent activation/inactivation gating variables and temporal changes in intracellular computed from known fluxes. These quantifications are validated by the reconstruction of the individual experimental ionic currents obtained under voltage-clamp. Phasic contraction is modeled in relation to the time constant of changing . This integrated model is validated by its reconstruction of the different USMC AP configurations (spikes, plateau and bursts of spikes), the change from bursting to plateau type AP produced by estradiol and of simultaneous experimental recordings of spontaneous AP, and phasic force. In summary, our advanced mathematical model provides a powerful tool to investigate the physiological ionic mechanisms underlying the genesis of uterine electrical E-C coupling of labor and parturition. This will furnish the evolution of descriptive and predictive quantitative models of myometrial electrogenesis at the whole cell and tissue levels