Quasi-Neutral theory of epidemic outbreaks

Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scalefree or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures Accepted for publication in PLoS ONE the text have been modified in orden to improve the figure's resolutio

Final Results of the Tisza, Guadiana and Inner Mongolia Regional Case-studies

This deliverable reports on the work done in ADAM work package P3d. It examines the constraints and opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in land use and water management in three study regions: the Guadiana River Basin in Spain and Portugal, the Tisza River Basin in Hungary and the Alxa region in western Inner Mongolia, Chin

Continuous Radar Tracking Illustrates the Development of Multi-destination Routes of Bumblebees

Animals that visit multiple foraging sites face a problem, analogous to the Travelling Salesman Problem, of finding an efficient route. We explored bumblebees’ route development on an array of five artificial flowers in which minimising travel distances between individual feeders conflicted with minimising overall distance. No previous study of bee spatial navigation has been able to follow animals’ movement during learning; we tracked bumblebee foragers continuously, using harmonic radar, and examined the process of route formation in detail for a small number of selected individuals. On our array, bees did not settle on visit sequences that gave the shortest overall path, but prioritised movements to nearby feeders. Nonetheless, flight distance and duration reduced with experience. This increased efficiency was attributable mainly to experienced bees reducing exploration beyond the feeder array and flights becoming straighter with experience, rather than improvements in the sequence of feeder visits. Flight paths of all legs of a flight stabilised at similar rates, whereas the first few feeder visits became fixed early while bees continued to experiment with the order of later visits. Stabilising early sections of a route and prioritising travel between nearby destinations may reduce the search space, allowing rapid adoption of efficient routes

Effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on the drought response of barley, durum wheat and oat

Phytotron experiments were conducted to examine the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 level (750 μmol mol-1) on the drought tolerance of winter barley (Petra), durum wheat (Mv Makaroni) and spring oat (Mv Pehely) varieties. Under drought stress conditions, the durum wheat variety was found to be unaffected by CO2 enrichment, as neither the biomass or grain yield nor the antioxidant enzyme activities changed compared to those at ambient CO2. Despite the fact that the spring oat variety had similar grain yield loss due to drought at both CO2 levels, it exhibited reduced antioxidant enzyme activities under less severe drought, indicating a slightly increased tolerance to drought. Winter barley, which exhibited an extremely positive reaction to CO2 enrichment at the control water supply level, also showed increased drought tolerance in response to high CO2. It had low glutathione reductase, glutathione-S- transferase and ascorbate peroxidase activities even at the most severe drought stress levels, while it could also fully compensate for the negative effects of drought on biomass and grain yield parameters when grown at elevated CO2