Развитие МБА в современных условиях (региональный аспект)

Precipitation is an important hydro-meteorological variable, and is a primary driver of the water cycle. In large parts of the world, real-time ground-based observations of precipitation are sparse and satellite-derived precipitation products are the only information source.We used changes in satellite-derived soil moisture (SM) and land surface temperature (LST) to reduce uncertainties in the real-time TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA-RT). The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used to model the response of LST and SM on precipitation, and a particle filter was used to update TMPA-RT. Observations from AMSR-E (LPRM and LSMEM), ASCAT, SMOS and LST from AMSR-E were assimilated to correct TMPA-RT over the continental United States.Assimilation of satellite-based SM observations alone reduced the false detection of precipitation (by 85.4%) and the uncertainty in the retrieved rainfall volumes (5%). However, a higher number of observed rainfall events were not detected after assimilation (34%), compared to the original TMPA-RT (46%). Noise in the retrieved SM changes resulted in a relatively low potential to reduce uncertainties. Assimilation of LST observations alone increased the rainfall detection rate (by 51%), and annual precipitation totals were closer to ground-based precipitation observations. Combined assimilation of both satellite SM and LST, did not significantly reduce the uncertainties compared to the original TMPA-RT, because of the influence of satellite SM over LST. However, in central United States improvements were found after combined assimilation of SM and LST observations. This study shows the potential for reducing the uncertainties in TMPA-RT estimates over sparsely gauged areas

Determination of SU(2) Chiral Perturbation Theory low energy constants from a precise description of pion-pion scattering threshold parameters

We determine the values of the one- and two-loop low energy constants appearing in the SU(2) Chiral Perturbation Theory calculation of pion-pion scattering. For this we use a recent and precise sum rule determination of some scattering lengths and slopes that appear in the effective range expansion. In addition we provide sum rules for these coefficients up to third order in the expansion. Our results when using only the scattering lengths and slopes of the S, P, D and F waves are consistent with previous determinations, but seem to require higher order contributions if they are to accommodate the third order coefficients of the effective range expansion.Comment: 16 pages. Version published in Phys. Rev. D. Enlarged discussions in several sections, appendices and many references added. Results and conclusions unchange

The Use of Nonparametric Item Response Theory to Explore Data Quality

The aim of this chapter is to provide insight into a number of commonly used nonparametric item response theory (NIRT) methods and to show how these methods can be used to describe and explore the psychometric quality of questionnaires used in patient-reported outcome measurement and, more in general, typical performance measurement (personality, mood, health-related constructs). NIRT is an extremely valuable tool for preliminary data analysis and for evaluating whether item response data are acceptable for parametric IRT modeling. This is in particular useful in the field of typical performance measurement where the construct being measured is often very different than in maximum performance measurement (education, intelligence; see Chapter 1 of this handbook). Our basic premise is that there are no “best tools” or “best models” and that the usefulness of psychometric modeling depends on the specific aims of the instrument (questionnaire, test) that is being used. Most important is, however, that it should be clear for a researcher how sensitive a specific method (for example, DETECT, or Mokken scaling) is to the assumptions that are being investigated. The NIRT literature is not always clear about this, and in this chapter we try to clarify some of these ambiguities

Magnetic Confinement, MHD Waves, and Smooth Line Profiles in AGN

In this paper, we show that if the broad line region clouds are in approximate energy equipartition between the magnetic field and gravity, as hypothesized by Rees, there will be a significant effect on the shape and smoothness of broad emission line profiles in active galactic nuclei. Line widths of contributing clouds or flow elements are much wider than their thermal widths, due to the presence of non-dissipative MHD waves, and their collective contribution produce emission line profiles broader and smoother than would be expected if a magnetic field were not present. As an illustration, a simple model of isotropically emitting clouds, normally distributed in velocity, is used to show that smoothness can be achieved for less than 80,000 clouds and may even be as low as a few hundred. We conclude that magnetic confinement has far reaching consequences for observing and modeling active galactic nuclei.Comment: to appear in MNRA

Підтексти драм Лесі Українки

У драмах Лесі Українки має місце діалог з культурою декадансу, який увиразнює тематику меланхолії та похідних від неї мотивів усамітнення, небуття, долі, жертви.In Lesya Ukrainka’s dramas the dialogue with the culture of decadence is conducted that entails the prominent place of the theme of melancholy and the derivative motifs of solitude, non-existence, fate, martyr

The effect of volumetric breast density on the risk of screen-detected and interval breast cancers: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In the light of the breast density legislation in the USA, it is important to know a woman's breast cancer risk, but particularly her risk of a tumor that is not detected through mammographic screening (interval cancer). Therefore, we examined the associations of automatically measured volumetric breast density with screen-detected and interval cancer risk, separately. METHODS: Volumetric breast measures were assessed automatically using Volpara version 1.5.0 (Matakina, New Zealand) for the first available digital mammography (DM) examination of 52,814 women (age 50 - 75 years) participating in the Dutch biennial breast cancer screening program between 2003 and 2011. Breast cancer information was obtained from the screening registration system and through linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. We excluded all screen-detected breast cancers diagnosed as a result of the first digital screening examination. During a median follow-up period of 4.2 (IQR 2.0-6.2) years, 523 women were diagnosed with breast cancer of which 299 were screen-detected and 224 were interval breast cancers. The associations between volumetric breast measures and breast cancer risk were determined using Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: Percentage dense volume was found to be positively associated with both interval and screen-detected breast cancers (hazard ratio (HR) 8.37 (95% CI 4.34-16.17) and HR 1.39 (95% CI 0.82-2.36), respectively, for Volpara density grade category (VDG) 4 compared to VDG1 (p for heterogeneity < 0.001)). Dense volume (DV) was also found to be positively associated with both interval and screen-detected breast cancers (HR 4.92 (95% CI 2.98-8.12) and HR 2.30 (95% CI 1.39-3.80), respectively, for VDG-like category (C)4 compared to C1 (p for heterogeneity = 0.041)). The association between percentage dense volume categories and interval breast cancer risk (HR 8.37) was not significantly stronger than the association between absolute dense volume categories and interval breast cancer risk (HR 4.92). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that both absolute dense volume and percentage dense volume are strong markers of breast cancer risk, but that they are even stronger markers for predicting the occurrence of tumors that are not detected during mammography breast cancer screening