Bivariate Test for Testing the EQUALITY of the Average Areas under Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (Test for Comparing of AUC's of Correlated ROC Curves)

Abstract Methodology developed for comparing correlated ROC curves are mainly based on nonparametric methods. These nonparametric methods have several disadvantages. In this paper the authors propose an asymptotic bivariate test for comparing pairs of AUCs for independent data based on the Dorfman and Alf maximum likelihood approach. The properties of the test are examined by using simulation studies. The method is illustrated on an example of angiogram results from Sri Lanka. The test applied to the example found that there was a significant difference in the predictive power of three different cut-offs examined

Guidelines to engage with marginalized ethnic minorities in agricultural research for development in the Greater Mekong

This document is an output of Humidtropics, a CGIAR Research Program on Integrated Systems for the Humid Tropics. This document is designed to help researchers who want to engage with ethnic groups to ensure agricultural research for development (R4D) stops contributing to their further marginalization. It can be used by those wanting to design new projects that engage with ethnic minorities from the start or those already implementing projects and wanting to improve their current practice. Based on an analysis of internal and external factors that lead to marginalization of ethnic minority groups through agricultural R4D, the Guidelines are organized around three sets of challenges: (a) the agricultural R4D system as a whole; (b) for research teams; and (c) for agricultural R4D projects. The document identifies for each challenge strategies that can help prevent further marginalization according to different stages in the project cycle. The overall approach that these Guidelines recommend is transdisciplinary action research. The strategies are thus those that can help agricultural R4D researchers to carry out transdisciplinary action research that engages more effectively with marginalized ethnic minority groups in order to achieve more inclusive and equitable rural development from agriculture

EFFECT OF"F'ORESTFIRE ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCnON··· IN THE PELWATTE AREA OF MONERAGALA DISTRICT

Sugar-cane cultivation has been a predominant agricultural activity in the district ofMoneragala in addition to paddy and chena cultivation. Nevertheless, dairying has.become a viable family industry for many fanners in this area. Mainly cattle andbuffaloes are allowed to graze freely in adjacent forest lands but due to frequent forest fireoccurring during certain period/s of the year, the level of milk production is badlyaffected. Therefore the objectives of this study were to gather baseline information toassess the type of forest fire, their frequency of occurring, the purpose of setting forestfire and the impact of forest fire on dairy industryMajority of fanners (>80%) were involved in the cultivation of sugar cane and other cashcrops under rain-fed condition. Women and children playa major role (74%) in livestockrearing. Main genotypes of cattle and buffaloes found were local and non-descriptivetypes.Animals are sent for grazing in nearby forestlands and feed shortages were observedduring the dry period. It was observed at the same time of occurring forest fire, there wasa drastic decline of forages and other available feed resources such as tree fodder,legumes etc.90% of the forest fire that occur once a year during the period of June to August.Sometimes it occurs twice a year during the periods of June to August and February toMarch where the most of the forest fire are crown fire and creeping fire. Purposes ofsetting fire are to obtain tender shoots as an animal feed (90%) and also for chenacultivation, for hunting specially undergrowth is burnt to search for animals and at thetime of harvesting the weedy sugarcane lands (under poor management) are beingsubjected to setting fire (10%). Feed shortages can be observed due to forest fire as wellas the prevailing dry spell during the periods of June to end of September and February toMarch. As a result of this a drastic decline of average milk yield (from 1.52 I± 0.326 to0.22S±0.162 1) can be observed. Visual observations proved that the body conditions ofthe animals are also badly affected during forest fire occurring periodsGunia spp., Ipil Ipil, Acasia, Illuk and Gliricidia are the main herbage species that areused to feed animals. As they are susceptible to fire, a severe shortage of animal feed canbe observed during these periods. On the other hand forest fire as well as buffaloes/cattlegrazing in forests causes a significant competition among wild animals in finding feedrecourses.The main impact, which is reduction of milk yield during the periods of forest fire can bereduced by introducing low inputs and particularly by training the farmers to prepareanimal feeds out of sugar cane by products such as molasses, bagasses and other wastematerials which are available in this area.

Prediction models for the development of COPD: A systematic review

Early identification of people at risk of developing COPD is crucial for implementing preventive strategies. We aimed to systematically review and assess the performance of all published models that predicted development of COPD. A search was conducted to identify studies that developed a prediction model for COPD development. The Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies was followed when extracting data and appraising the selected studies. Of the 4,481 records identified, 30 articles were selected for full-text review, and only four of these were eligible to be included in the review. The only consistent predictor across all four models was a measure of smoking. Sex and age were used in most models; however, other factors varied widely. Two of the models had good ability to discriminate between people who were correctly or incorrectly classified as at risk of developing COPD. Overall none of the models were particularly useful in accurately predicting future risk of COPD, nor were they good at ruling out future risk of COPD. Further studies are needed to develop new prediction models and robustly validate them in external cohorts

Behaviour of cattle in an agro-forestry system

Objective of the present study was to understand the behaviour of dairy cattle tethered underagro-forcstry systems. Three genetically uncharacterized, indigenous, non-lactating cows and twobulls (mean live weight 199±29) were tethered close to a water stream in an agro-forestry system.The vegetation of the agro-forestry system comprised of teak, coconut, mahogany and shrubs. Animalshad enough foraging materials around the place they were tethered. One observer was assigned toeach animal. The behaviour of the animals was observed for five hours from 1000 1500 hrs. Themean temperature and the relative humidity of day of the study were 28°C and 79% respectively.Frequency and the duration of the time spent on nine behaviours were recorded. The behaviouralactivities studied were drinking, feeding (ground level and upper level), lying, standing, walking,urination, defecation, vocal ization and interactions (cattle-cattle and cattle-other an irnals ). Feedingwas the most prominent behaviour of the animals. The time spent on feeding and the frequency offeeding during the 300 minutes study period were 252 min and 23, respectively and thus the feedingbehaviour accounted for 84% of the total time budget. The frequency (15) and the time spent onground level grazing (234 min) were significantly higher (p<O.OOI) than the frequencies and the timespent on upper level feeding. Though not statistically significant, animals spent more time on standing(18.9min or 6.3% of the total time) than on Laying (14.6 min or 5% of the total time). The frequencyof standing (5) was also significantly (p<O.OO I) higher than that oflying (I). May be due to tethering,cattle spent less time (8.3 minutes or 2.7% of the total time) on walking. The frequency of drinking(2) and the time spent on drinking were (3 min or 1% of the total time) unexpectedly low. Cattledefecated and urinated twice during the five- hour study period. Vocalization was the least prominentbehavioural activity. It is concluded that cattle highly engage with feeding particularly, on groundlevel when they are tethered under agro-forestry systems. Further researches are needed to determineas to why the drinking behaviour is suppressed when tethered in agro-forestry systems

Behaviour of cattle in an agro-forestry system

Objective of the present study was to understand the behaviour of dairy cattle tethered underagro-forcstry systems. Three genetically uncharacterized, indigenous, non-lactating cows and twobulls (mean live weight 199±29) were tethered close to a water stream in an agro-forestry system.The vegetation of the agro-forestry system comprised of teak, coconut, mahogany and shrubs. Animalshad enough foraging materials around the place they were tethered. One observer was assigned toeach animal. The behaviour of the animals was observed for five hours from 1000 1500 hrs. Themean temperature and the relative humidity of day of the study were 28°C and 79% respectively.Frequency and the duration of the time spent on nine behaviours were recorded. The behaviouralactivities studied were drinking, feeding (ground level and upper level), lying, standing, walking,urination, defecation, vocal ization and interactions (cattle-cattle and cattle-other an irnals ). Feedingwas the most prominent behaviour of the animals. The time spent on feeding and the frequency offeeding during the 300 minutes study period were 252 min and 23, respectively and thus the feedingbehaviour accounted for 84% of the total time budget. The frequency (15) and the time spent onground level grazing (234 min) were significantly higher (p<O.OOI) than the frequencies and the timespent on upper level feeding. Though not statistically significant, animals spent more time on standing(18.9min or 6.3% of the total time) than on Laying (14.6 min or 5% of the total time). The frequencyof standing (5) was also significantly (p<O.OO I) higher than that oflying (I). May be due to tethering,cattle spent less time (8.3 minutes or 2.7% of the total time) on walking. The frequency of drinking(2) and the time spent on drinking were (3 min or 1% of the total time) unexpectedly low. Cattledefecated and urinated twice during the five- hour study period. Vocalization was the least prominentbehavioural activity. It is concluded that cattle highly engage with feeding particularly, on groundlevel when they are tethered under agro-forestry systems. Further researches are needed to determineas to why the drinking behaviour is suppressed when tethered in agro-forestry systems

CBD 2010 target: a case study of Kolleru Wetland (Ramsar Site), India using remote sensing and GIS

Regular monitoring of wetlands is an essential element of management for 'wise use'. Indeed, the Ramsar convention requires routine monitoring in order to detect changes in the ecological character at listed sites. However, there are few examples of monitoring of tropical wetlands on a sustained basis in the world. In the present study, we quantified land use/land cover changes in the lone Ramsar site, the Kolleru Wildlife Sanctuary of Andhra Pradesh, India between 1977 and 2007 using remote sensing and GIS techniques. It was found that there was a significant increase in aquaculture farming (158.5 sq km) from 1977 to 2000, which put the habitat of flora and fauna in adverse conditions. The natural function of lake was being restored after the demolition of fishponds ordered by the Honorable Supreme Court of India it 2006. This study highlights the firsthand information to the user community after demolition, and offers suggestions for the future conservation of the lake. We suggest that remote sensing and GIS tools have a significant role in meeting the reported requirements for the CBD 2010 target