The risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after P. falciparum malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network.

BACKGROUND: There is a high risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia following treatment of falciparum malaria. Our study aimed to quantify this risk and the associated determinants using an individual patient data meta-analysis in order to identify populations in which a policy of universal radical cure, combining artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a hypnozoitocidal antimalarial drug, would be beneficial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews identified efficacy studies of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with ACT that were undertaken in regions coendemic for P. vivax between 1 January 1960 and 5 January 2018. Data from eligible studies were pooled using standardised methodology. The risk of P. vivax parasitaemia at days 42 and 63 and associated risk factors were investigated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Study quality was assessed using a tool developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42018097400). In total, 42 studies enrolling 15,341 patients were included in the analysis, including 30 randomised controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. Overall, 14,146 (92.2%) patients had P. falciparum monoinfection and 1,195 (7.8%) mixed infection with P. falciparum and P. vivax. The median age was 17.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 9.0-29.0 years; range = 0-80 years), with 1,584 (10.3%) patients younger than 5 years. 2,711 (17.7%) patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL, 13 studies), 651 (4.2%) with artesunate-amodiaquine (AA, 6 studies), 7,340 (47.8%) with artesunate-mefloquine (AM, 25 studies), and 4,639 (30.2%) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, 16 studies). 14,537 patients (94.8%) were enrolled from the Asia-Pacific region, 684 (4.5%) from the Americas, and 120 (0.8%) from Africa. At day 42, the cumulative risk of vivax parasitaemia following treatment of P. falciparum was 31.1% (95% CI 28.9-33.4) after AL, 14.1% (95% CI 10.8-18.3) after AA, 7.4% (95% CI 6.7-8.1) after AM, and 4.5% (95% CI 3.9-5.3) after DP. By day 63, the risks had risen to 39.9% (95% CI 36.6-43.3), 42.4% (95% CI 34.7-51.2), 22.8% (95% CI 21.2-24.4), and 12.8% (95% CI 11.4-14.5), respectively. In multivariable analyses, the highest rate of P. vivax parasitaemia over 42 days of follow-up was in patients residing in areas of short relapse periodicity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 6.2, 95% CI 2.0-19.5; p = 0.002); patients treated with AL (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI 4.6-8.5; p < 0.001), AA (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7; p = 0.001), or AM (AHR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.9; p = 0.028) compared with DP; and patients who did not clear their initial parasitaemia within 2 days (AHR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3; p < 0.001). The analysis was limited by heterogeneity between study populations and lack of data from very low transmission settings. Study quality was high. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we found a high risk of P. vivax parasitaemia after treatment of P. falciparum malaria that varied significantly between studies. These P. vivax infections are likely attributable to relapses that could be prevented with radical cure including a hypnozoitocidal agent; however, the benefits of such a novel strategy will vary considerably between geographical areas

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Pf7: an open dataset of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation in 20,000 worldwide samples

We describe the MalariaGEN Pf7 data resource, the seventh release of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation data from the MalariaGEN network.  It comprises over 20,000 samples from 82 partner studies in 33 countries, including several malaria endemic regions that were previously underrepresented.  For the first time we include dried blood spot samples that were sequenced after selective whole genome amplification, necessitating new methods to genotype copy number variations.  We identify a large number of newly emerging crt mutations in parts of Southeast Asia, and show examples of heterogeneities in patterns of drug resistance within Africa and within the Indian subcontinent.  We describe the profile of variations in the C-terminal of the csp gene and relate this to the sequence used in the RTS,S and R21 malaria vaccines.  Pf7 provides high-quality data on genotype calls for 6 million SNPs and short indels, analysis of large deletions that cause failure of rapid diagnostic tests, and systematic characterisation of six major drug resistance loci, all of which can be freely downloaded from the MalariaGEN website

New glycosyl-α-aminotetrazole-based catalysts for highly enantioselective aldol reactions

Direct aldol reactions of acetone with aromatic aldehydes have been achieved in high yielding and enantioselective processes using glycosyl-α-aminotetrazoles as a new class of organocatalysts. Computational studies at DFT level have been performed to account for the experimental observations.Peer Reviewe

The prevalence, incidence and prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infections in forest rangers in Bu Gia Map National Park, Binh Phuoc province, Vietnam: a pilot study.

Background Prophylaxis for high-risk populations, such as forest workers, could be one component for malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. A study was conducted to assess the malaria incidence in forest rangers and the feasibility of malaria prophylaxis for rangers sleeping in forest camps. Methods Forest rangers deployed in the Bu Gia Map National Park, Vietnam were invited to participate in the study. Plasmodium infections were cleared using presumptive treatment, irrespective of malaria status, with a 3-day course dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine (DP) and a 14-day course of primaquine. Before returning to the forest, study participants were randomly allocated to a 3-day course of DP or placebo. Fifteen days after returning from their forest deployment the participants were tested for Plasmodium infections using uPCR. Results Prior to treatment, 30 of 150 study participants (20%) were found to be infected with Plasmodium. Seventeen days (median) after enrolment the rangers were randomized to DP or placebo 2 days before returning to forest camps where they stayed between 2 and 20 days (median 9.5 days). One ranger in the DP-prophylaxis arm and one in the placebo arm were found to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum 15 days (median) after returning from the forest. The evaluable P. falciparum isolates had molecular markers indicating resistance to artemisinins (K13-C580Y) and piperaquine (plasmepsin), but none had multiple copies of pfmdr1 associated with mefloquine resistance. Conclusion Anti-malarial prophylaxis in forest rangers is feasible. The findings of the study highlight the threat of multidrug-resistant malaria.</p

The prevalence, incidence and prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infections in forest rangers in Bu Gia Map National Park, Binh Phuoc province, Vietnam: a pilot study.

Background Prophylaxis for high-risk populations, such as forest workers, could be one component for malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. A study was conducted to assess the malaria incidence in forest rangers and the feasibility of malaria prophylaxis for rangers sleeping in forest camps. Methods Forest rangers deployed in the Bu Gia Map National Park, Vietnam were invited to participate in the study. Plasmodium infections were cleared using presumptive treatment, irrespective of malaria status, with a 3-day course dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine (DP) and a 14-day course of primaquine. Before returning to the forest, study participants were randomly allocated to a 3-day course of DP or placebo. Fifteen days after returning from their forest deployment the participants were tested for Plasmodium infections using uPCR. Results Prior to treatment, 30 of 150 study participants (20%) were found to be infected with Plasmodium. Seventeen days (median) after enrolment the rangers were randomized to DP or placebo 2 days before returning to forest camps where they stayed between 2 and 20 days (median 9.5 days). One ranger in the DP-prophylaxis arm and one in the placebo arm were found to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum 15 days (median) after returning from the forest. The evaluable P. falciparum isolates had molecular markers indicating resistance to artemisinins (K13-C580Y) and piperaquine (plasmepsin), but none had multiple copies of pfmdr1 associated with mefloquine resistance. Conclusion Anti-malarial prophylaxis in forest rangers is feasible. The findings of the study highlight the threat of multidrug-resistant malaria.</p

K13-propeller mutations in Plasmodium falciparum populations in malaria endemic regions of Vietnam from 2009 to 2016

The spread of artemisinin resistant P. falciparum compromises the therapeutic efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) and is considered the greatest threat to current global initiatives to control and eliminate malaria. This is particularly relevant for Vietnam, where dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is the recommended ACT for P. falciparum The propeller domain gene of K13, a molecular marker of artemisinin resistance, was sequenced successfully in 1060 P. falciparum isolates collected at 3 malaria hotspots in Vietnam between 2009 and 2016. Eight K13 propeller mutations (Thr474Ile, Tyr493His, Arg539Thr, Ile543Thr, Pro553Leu, Val568Gly, Pro574Leu and Cys580Tyr) were found, including several that have been validated as artemisinin resistant markers. The prevalences of K13 mutations were 29% (222/767), 6% (11/188) and 43% (45/105) in in Binh Phuoc, Ninh Thuan and Gia Lai respectively. Cys580Tyr became the dominant genotype in recent years comprising 79.1% (34/43) of isolates in Binh Phuoc and 63% (17/27) in Gia Lai Province. K13 mutations were associated with reduced ring stage susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in-vitro and prolonged parasite clearance in-vivo. An analysis of haplotypes flanking K13 suggested the presence of multiple strains with Cys580Tyr, rather than a single strain expanding across the three sites

K13-propeller mutations in Plasmodium falciparum populations in malaria endemic regions of Vietnam from 2009 to 2016

The spread of artemisinin resistant P. falciparum compromises the therapeutic efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) and is considered the greatest threat to current global initiatives to control and eliminate malaria. This is particularly relevant for Vietnam, where dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is the recommended ACT for P. falciparum The propeller domain gene of K13, a molecular marker of artemisinin resistance, was sequenced successfully in 1060 P. falciparum isolates collected at 3 malaria hotspots in Vietnam between 2009 and 2016. Eight K13 propeller mutations (Thr474Ile, Tyr493His, Arg539Thr, Ile543Thr, Pro553Leu, Val568Gly, Pro574Leu and Cys580Tyr) were found, including several that have been validated as artemisinin resistant markers. The prevalences of K13 mutations were 29% (222/767), 6% (11/188) and 43% (45/105) in in Binh Phuoc, Ninh Thuan and Gia Lai respectively. Cys580Tyr became the dominant genotype in recent years comprising 79.1% (34/43) of isolates in Binh Phuoc and 63% (17/27) in Gia Lai Province. K13 mutations were associated with reduced ring stage susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in-vitro and prolonged parasite clearance in-vivo. An analysis of haplotypes flanking K13 suggested the presence of multiple strains with Cys580Tyr, rather than a single strain expanding across the three sites