Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (+/- 16 %) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m(-2) to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget, we include a fifth scenario in which all arable land is cultivated by 2100. This theoretical extreme case leads to a LULCC RF of 3.9 W m(-2) (+/- 0.9 W m(-2)), suggesting that not only energy policy but also land policy is necessary to minimize future increases in RF and associated climate changes

3/2 Firefighters are not enough

The firefighter problem is a monotone dynamic process in graphs that can be viewed as modeling the use of a limited supply of vaccinations to stop the spread of an epidemic. In more detail, a fire spreads through a graph, from burning vertices to their unprotected neighbors. In every round, a small amount of unburnt vertices can be protected by firefighters. How many firefighters per turn, on average, are needed to stop the fire from advancing? We prove tight lower and upper bounds on the amount of firefighters needed to control a fire in the Cartesian planar grid and in the strong planar grid, resolving two conjectures of Ng and Raff.Comment: 8 page

Loop quantum gravity without the Hamiltonian constraint

We show that under certain technical assumptions, including the existence of a constant mean curvature (CMC) slice and strict positivity of the scalar field, general relativity conformally coupled to a scalar field can be quantised on a partially reduced phase space, meaning reduced only with respect to the Hamiltonian constraint and a proper gauge fixing. More precisely, we introduce, in close analogy to shape dynamics, the generator of a local conformal transformation acting on both, the metric and the scalar field, which coincides with the CMC gauge condition. A new metric, which is invariant under this transformation, is constructed and used to define connection variables which can be quantised by standard loop quantum gravity methods. While it is hard to address dynamical problems in this framework (due to the complicated 'time' function), it seems, due to good accessibility properties of the CMC gauge, to be well suited for problems such as the computation of black hole entropy, where actual physical states can be counted and the dynamics is only of indirect importance. The corresponding calculation yields the surprising result that the usual prescription of fixing the Barbero-Immirzi parameter beta to a constant value in order to obtain the well-known formula S = a(Phi) A/(4G) does not work for the black holes under consideration, while a recently proposed prescription involving an analytic continuation of beta to the case of a self-dual space-time connection yields the correct result. Also, the interpretation of the geometric operators gets an interesting twist, which exemplifies the deep relationship between observables and the choice of a time function and has consequences for loop quantum cosmology.Comment: 8 pages. v2: Journal version. Black hole state counting based on physical states added. Applications to loop quantum cosmology discussed. Gauge condition used shown to coincide with CMC gauge. Minor clarifications. v3: Erroneous topology dependence of the entropy in journal version corrected, conclusions fixed accordingly. Main results unaffecte

Gravastar Solutions with Continuous Pressures and Equation of State

We study the gravitational vacuum star (gravastar) configuration as proposed by other authors in a model where the interior de Sitter spacetime segment is continuously extended to the exterior Schwarzschild spacetime. The multilayered structure in previous papers is replaced by a continuous stress-energy tensor at the price of introducing anisotropy in the (fluid) model of the gravastar. Either with an ansatz for the equation of state connecting the radial $p_r$ and tangential $p_t$ pressure or with a calculated equation of state with non-homogeneous energy/fluid density, solutions are obtained which in all aspects satisfy the conditions expected for an anisotropic gravastar. Certain energy conditions have been shown to be obeyed and a polytropic equation of state has been derived. Stability of the solution with respect to possible axial perturbation is shown to hold.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures. Latest version contains new and updated references along with some clarifying remarks in the stability analysi

General solutions of Einstein's spherically symmetric gravitational equations with junction conditions

Einstein's spherically symmetric interior gravitational equations are investigated. Following Synge's procedure, the most general solution of the equations is furnished in case $T^{1}_{1}$ and $T^{4}_{4}$ are prescribed. The existence of a total mass function, $M(r,t)$, is rigorously proved. Under suitable restrictions on the total mass function, the Schwarzschild mass $M(r,t)=m$, implicitly defines the boundary of the spherical body as $r=B(t)$. Both Synge's junction conditions as well as the continuity of the second fundamental form are examined and solved in a general manner. The weak energy conditions for an \emph{arbitrary boost} are also considered. The most general solution of the spherically symmetric anisotropic fluid model satisfying both junction conditions is furnished. In the final section, various exotic solutions are explored using the developed scheme including gravitational instantons, interior $T$-domains and $D$-dimensional generalizations.Comment: 23 pages, 1 figure, uses AMS packages. Updated version has corrected typos as well as added comments and extension regarding ISLD junction conditions. Accepted for publication in Journal of Mathematical Physic

Logarithmic corrections to black hole and black ring entropy in tunneling approach

The tunneling approach beyond semiclassical approximation has been used to calculate the corrected Hawking temperature and entropy for various black holes and FRW universe model. We examine their derivations, and prove that the quantity $H$ in the corrected temperature is the explicit function of the only free parameter $\mathcal{A}$ (which is an auxiliary parameter defined by $\mathcal{A}=\hbar S_{BH}$). Our analysis improves previous calculations, and indicates that the leading order logarithmic correction to entropy is a natural result of the corrected temperature and the first law of thermodynamics. Additionally, we apply the tunneling approach beyond semiclassical approximation to neutral black rings. Based on the analysis, we show that the entropy of neutral black rings also has a logarithmic leading order correction.Comment: 13 pages, rewritte

Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model

Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended CLM-CN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions