Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility

We analyze the determinants of daily futures price volatility in corn, soybeans, wheat, and oats markets from 1986 to 2007. Combining the information from simultaneously traded contracts, a generalized least squares method is implemented that allows us to clearly distinguish among time-to-delivery effects, seasonality, calendar trend, and volatility persistence. We find strong evidence of time-to-delivery (Samuelson) effects and systematic seasonal components with volatility increasing prior to harvest times— an indirect confirmation of the theory of storage.futures markets, Samuelson effect, seasonality, time to maturity, volatility, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Volatility Persistence in Commodity Futures:Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects

Most financial asset returns exhibit volatility persistence. We investigate this phenomenon in the context of daily returns in commodity futures markets. We show that the time gap between the arrival of news to the markets and the delivery time of futures contracts is the fundamental variable in explaining volatility persistence in the lumber futures market. We also find an inverse relationship between inventory levels and lumber futures volatility.volatility persistence, theory of storage, volatility, futures markets, lumber, Agricultural Finance,

Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts

Energy efficiency has played an important role in helping China achieve its domestic and international energy and climate change mitigation targets, but more significant near-term actions to decarbonize are needed to help China and the world meet the Paris Agreement goals. Accelerating electrification and maximizing supply-side and demand-side renewable adoption are two recent strategies being considered in China, but few bottom-up modeling studies have evaluated the potential near-term impacts of these strategies across multiple sectors. To fill this research gap, we use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO2 emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency and fuel switching. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO2 emissions as early as 2025, with significant additional CO2 emission reductions on the order of 7 Gt CO2 annually by 2050. Beyond potential CO2 reductions from power sector decarbonization, significant potential lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO2 reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choices in the demand sectors. Managing the pace of electrification in tandem with the pace of decarbonization of the power sector will also be crucial to achieving CO2 reductions from the power sector in a scenario of increased electrification

Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/15/08.volatility, theory of storage, futures markets, Bayesian econometrics, lumber, Marketing,

Does Futures Price Volatility Differ Across Delivery Horizon?

We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oats futures prices across different delivery horizons via the smoothed Bayesian estimator of Karali, Dorfman, and Thurman (2010). We show that the futures price volatilities in these markets are affected by the inventories, time to delivery, and the crop progress period. Some of these effects vary across delivery horizons. Further, it is shown that the price volatility is higher before the harvest starts in most of the cases compared to the volatility during the planting period. These results have implications for hedging, options pricing, and the setting of margin requirements.Bayesian econometrics, futures markets, seasonality, theory of storage, volatility, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Improving the energy efficiency of room air conditioners in China: Costs and benefits

China is the world's largest consumer of room air conditioners, and it contributes about a quarter of global space cooling CO2 emissions. We model the costs and benefits of recently proposed new room air conditioner minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) in China. Our results suggest that newly proposed MEPS brings accumulative CO2 emissions reductions of 12.8% between 2019 and 2050, and accumulative bill saving of 2620 billion RMB to China's consumers. The benefits of the proposed MEPS decrease with longer MEPS revision intervals and increase with shorter intervals—indicating that the intervals should be balanced to maximize benefits while accommodating constraints due to air conditioner manufacturer design cycles. We also model potential nationwide benefits from higher MEPS. Across two increasingly aggressive MEPS scenarios, China's room air conditioner electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in 2050 are both reduced by 15–53% compared to the proposed MEPS. The highest-efficiency scenario (reaching MEPS of annual performance factor 5.4 in 2025) provides the largest long-term national benefits. These results could inform development of a Chinese regulatory regime that effectively updates room air conditioner MEPS. Because China is the world's largest manufacturer of room air conditioners, the economic, energy, and emissions benefits resulting from higher Chinese MEPS could also have a global reach

Circulation of Orhan Pamuk’s Benim Adim Kirmizi [my name is red] in contemporary Chinese-Indonesian literature

This article is an exploration of contemporary Turkish and Chinese-Indonesian literatures with regards to a mid to late 18th Century literary niche: the it-narrative. Thinking (noesis) back and forth between centuries and different literary genres makes (poiesis) the conversation possible, which addresses the socio-literary imagination of the last four centuries. The authors re- examine the genre of it-narrative outside 18th Century studies and reassess the encounter of Turkish author Orhan Pamuk and Chinese-Indonesian author Alberta Natasia Adji within the socio-cultural and historico-political context of modern Turkey and Indonesia. The question is how Pamuk’s use of prosopopoeia in his 1998 novel Benim Adım Kırmızı [My Name is Red] influences Adji’s decision to use the 18th Century it-narratives in her 2019 short story I am Her Bracelet

Pulsating wave for mean curvature flow in inhomogeneous medium

We prove the existence and uniqueness of pulsating waves for the motion by mean curvature of an n-dimensional hypersurface in an inhomogeneous medium, represented by a periodic forcing. The main difficulty is caused by the degeneracy of the equation and the fact the forcing is allowed to change sign. Under the assumption of weak inhomogeneity, we obtain uniform oscillation and gradient bounds so that the evolving surface can be written as a graph over a reference hyperplane. The existence of an effective speed of propagation is established for any normal direction. We further prove the Lipschitz continuity of the speed with respect to the normal and various stability properties of the pulsating wave. The results are related to the homogenisation of mean curvature flow with forcing