Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper

Estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular no Brasil: uma abordagem com o uso de Dinâmica de Sistemas Study of the cellular phone diffusion in Brazil: a system dynamics approach

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular. Baseado na teoria de difusão de produtos de Frank Bass (1969), e na metodologia de Dinâmica de Sistemas, o modelo foi aplicado ao caso brasileiro. Como resultado, foi possível reproduzir, com bom grau de aderência, as curvas acumuladas de celulares adotados no Brasil (pós-pagos, pré-pagos e total), bem como a curva de vendas anuais. Os resultados das projeções apontam para uma saturação da penetração de telefones celulares no Brasil por volta do ano de 2013, quando então o mercado deverá atingir um total aproximado de 150 milhões de aparelhos.<br>This work presents a model to study the diffusion of the mobile cell phone technology. Based on the Frank Bass' theory of Products Diffusion (1969), and on the System Dynamics methodology, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. As a result, it was possible to reproduce, with a good degree of adherence, the accumulated curves of cellular adopted in Brazil (post-paid, pre-paid and total), as so the annual sales curve. The projected results indicates a saturation of cell phones diffusion in Brazil around the year 2013, when the market will supposed to reach a total of approximately 150 millions of devices

Market orientation, innovation, and firm performance—an analysis of Albanian firms

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the concept of market orientation as an outer source of innovation for organizations in the context of Albania. We investigate the market orientation relation with innovation and firm performance by analyzing a sample of 99 companies operating in Albania. The relationships and the impact of market orientation on innovation and performance is tested empirically through structural equation modeling techniques (SEM). The analysis confirms prior theoretical and empirical findings in developed economies, however, it gives way to some contextual interpretations. The implications of this study are considerable in academia and in managerial purposes. In academia, considering that there is no research in Albania on the topic of us being aware of, nevertheless, we identify the need for deeper and wider research, especially with bigger sample sizes, industry-specific, and across industries to grasp more about market reality. On managerial account, its relevance relies in the distinction of market orientation construct and the right division of components within the company, and the adequate approach toward intelligence generation, dissemination, and reaction on it by responding to market needs and competition with innovative products and services