Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

Tuning a Resonance in the Fock Space: Optimization of Phonon Emission in a Resonant Tunneling Device

Phonon-assisted tunneling in a double barrier resonant tunneling device can be seen as a resonance in the electron-phonon Fock space which is tuned by the applied voltage. We show that the geometrical parameters can induce a symmetry condition in this space that can strongly enhance the emission of longitudinal optical phonons. For devices with thin emitter barriers this is achieved by a wider collector's barrier.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Figure 1 changed, typos correcte

Seasonal effects on reconciliation in Macaca Fuscata Yakui

Dietary composition may have profound effects on the activity budgets, levelof food competition, and social behavior of a species. Similarly, in seasonally breeding species, the mating season is a period in which competition for mating partners increases, affecting amicable social interactions among group members. We analyzed the importance of the mating season and of seasonal variations in dietary composition and food competition on econciliation in wild female Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata yakui) on Yakushima Island, Japan. Yakushima macaques are appropriate subjects because they are seasonal breeders and their dietary composition significantly changes among the seasons. Though large differences occurred between the summer months and the winter and early spring months in activity budgets and the consumption of the main food sources, i.e., fruits, seeds, and leaves, the level of food competition and conciliatory tendency remained unaffected. Conversely,conciliatory tendency is significantly lower during the mating season than in the nonmating season. Moreover, conciliatory tendency is lower when 1 or both female opponents is in estrous than when they are not. Thus the mating season has profound effects on reconciliation, whereas seasonal changes in activity budgets and dietary composition do not. The detrimental effects of the mating season on female social relationships and reconciliation may be due to the importance of female competition for access to male partners in multimale, multifemale societies

Implementation of a structured emergency nursing framework results in significant cost benefit

Abstract Background Patients are at risk of deterioration on discharge from an emergency department (ED) to a ward, particularly in the first 72 h. The implementation of a structured emergency nursing framework (HIRAID) in regional New South Wales (NSW), Australia, resulted in a 50% reduction of clinical deterioration related to emergency nursing care. To date the cost implications of this are unknown. The aim of this study was to determine any net financial benefits arising from the implementation of the HIRAID emergency nursing framework. Methods This retrospective cohort study was conducted between March 2018 and February 2019 across two hospitals in regional NSW, Australia. Costs associated with the implementation of HIRAID at the study sites were calculated using an estimate of initial HIRAID implementation costs (AUD) ($492,917) and ongoing HIRAID implementation costs ($134,077). Equivalent savings per annum (i.e. in less patient deterioration) were calculated using projected estimates of ED admission and patient deterioration episodes via OLS regression with confidence intervals for incremental additional deterioration costs per episode used as the basis for scenario analysis. Results The HIRAID-equivalent savings per annum exceed the costs of implementation under all scenarios (Conservative, Expected and Optimistic). The estimated preliminary savings to the study sites per annum was $1,914,252 with a payback period of 75 days. Conservative projections estimated a net benefit of$1,813,760 per annum by 2022–23. The state-wide projected equivalent savings benefits of HIRAID equalled $227,585,008 per annum, by 2022–23. Conclusions The implementation of HIRAID reduced costs associated with resources consumed from patient deterioration episodes. The HIRAID-equivalent savings per annum to the hospital exceed the costs of implementation across a range of scenarios, and upscaling would result in significant patient and cost benefit. </jats:sec

Measurement of the atmospheric muon depth intensity relation with the NEMO Phase-2 tower

The results of the analysis of the data collected with the NEMO Phase-2 tower, deployed at 3500 m depth about 80 km off-shore Capo Passero (Italy), are presented. Cherenkov photons detected with the photomultipliers tubes were used to reconstruct the tracks of atmospheric muons. Their zenith-angle distribution was measured and the results compared with Monte Carlo simulations. An evaluation of the systematic effects due to uncertainties on environmental and detector parameters is also included. The associated depth intensity relation was evaluated and compared with previous measurements and theoretical predictions. With the present analysis, the muon depth intensity relation has been measured up to 13 km of water equivalent.Comment: submitted to Astroparticle Physic

Judah Folkman, a pioneer in the study of angiogenesis

More than 30 years ago, Judah Folkman found a revolutionary new way to think about cancer. He postulated that in order to survive and grow, tumors require blood vessels, and that by cutting off that blood supply, a cancer could be starved into remission. What began as a revolutionary approach to cancer has evolved into one of the most exciting areas of scientific inquiry today. Over the years, Folkman and a growing team of researchers have isolated the proteins and unraveled the processes that regulate angiogenesis. Meanwhile, a new generation of angiogenesis research has emerged as well, widening the field into new areas of human disease and deepening it to examine the underlying biological processes responsible for those diseases

Threat of allergenic airborne grass pollen in Szczecin, NW Poland: the dynamics of pollen seasons, effect of meteorological variables and air pollution

The dynamics of Poaceae pollen season, in particularly that of the Secale genus, in Szczecin (western Poland) 2004–2008 was analysed to establish a relationship between the meteorological variables, air pollution and the pollen count of the taxa studied. Consecutive phases during the pollen season were defined for each taxon (1, 2.5, 5, 25, 50, 75, 95, 97.5, 99% of annual total), and duration of the season was determined using the 98% method. On the basis of this analysis, the temporary differences in the dynamics of the seasons were most evident for Secale in 2005 and 2006 with the longest main pollen season (90% total pollen). The pollen season of Poaceae started the earliest in 2007, when thermal conditions were the most favourable. Correlation analysis with meteorological factors demonstrated that the relative humidity, mean and maximum air temperature, and rainfall were the factors influencing the average daily pollen concentrations in the atmosphere; also, the presence of air pollutants such as ozone, PM10 and SO2 was statistically related to the pollen count in the air. However, multiple regression models explained little part of the total variance. Atmospheric pollution induces aggravation of symptoms of grass pollen allergy

Role of the androgen receptor in breast cancer and preclinical analysis of enzalutamide

INTRODUCTION: The androgen receptor (AR) is widely expressed in breast cancers and has been proposed as a therapeutic target in estrogen receptor alpha (ER) negative breast cancers that retain AR. However, controversy exists regarding the role of AR, particularly in ER + tumors. Enzalutamide, an AR inhibitor that impairs nuclear localization of AR, was used to elucidate the role of AR in preclinical models of ER positive and negative breast cancer. METHODS: We examined nuclear AR to ER protein ratios in primary breast cancers in relation to response to endocrine therapy. The effects of AR inhibition with enzalutamide were examined in vitro and in preclinical models of ER positive and negative breast cancer that express AR. RESULTS: In a cohort of 192 women with ER + breast cancers, a high ratio of AR:ER (≥2.0) indicated an over four fold increased risk for failure while on tamoxifen (HR = 4.43). The AR:ER ratio had an independent effect on risk for failure above ER % staining alone. AR:ER ratio is also an independent predictor of disease-free survival (HR = 4.04, 95% CI: 1.68, 9.69; p = 0.002) and disease specific survival (HR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.11, 6.86; p = 0.03). Both enzalutamide and bicalutamide inhibited 5-alpha-dihydrotestosterone (DHT)-mediated proliferation of breast cancer lines in vitro; however, enzalutamide uniquely inhibited estradiol (E2)-mediated proliferation of ER+/AR + breast cancer cells. In MCF7 xenografts (ER+/AR+) enzalutamide inhibited E2-driven tumor growth as effectively as tamoxifen by decreasing proliferation. Enzalutamide also inhibited DHT- driven tumor growth in both ER positive (MCF7) and negative (MDA-MB-453) xenografts, but did so by increasing apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS: AR to ER ratio may influence breast cancer response to traditional endocrine therapy. Enzalutamide elicits different effects on E2-mediated breast cancer cell proliferation than bicalutamide. This preclinical study supports the initiation of clinical studies evaluating enzalutamide for treatment of AR(+) tumors regardless of ER status, since it blocks both androgen- and estrogen- mediated tumor growth