The consequences of climate change in the Arctic and implications for natural resource utilisation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher SGA News Archive.History of the Northwest Passage sea route, recent climate change, global warming and the opening of the Northwest Passag

Application of Bayesian statistics to estimate nitrous oxide emission factors of the nitrogen fertilisers in UK grasslands

Trapezoidal integration by linear interpolation of data points is by far the most commonly used method of cumulative flux calculations of nitrous oxide (N2O) in studies that use flux chambers; however, this method is incapable of providing accurate uncertainty estimates. A Bayesian approach was used to calculate N2O emission factors (EFs) and their associated uncertainties from flux chamber measurements made after the application of nitrogen fertilisers, in the form of ammonium nitrate (AN), urea (Ur) and urea treated with Agrotain® urease inhibitor (UI) at four grassland sites in the UK. The comparison between the cumulative fluxes estimated using the Bayesian and linear interpolation methods were broadly similar (R2=0.79); however, the Bayesian method was capable of providing realistic uncertainties when a limited number of data points is available. The study reports mean EF values (and 95% confidence intervals) of 0.60 ± 0.63, 0.29 ± 0.22 and 0.26 ± 0.17% of applied N emitted as N2O for the AN, Ur and UI treatments, respectively. There was no significant difference between N2O emissions from the Ur and UI treatments. In the case of the automatic chamber data collected at one site in this study, the data did not fit the log-normal model, implying that more complex models may be needed, particularly for measurement data with high temporal resolutioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Flexible bronchoscopic management of benign tracheal stenosis: long term follow-up of 115 patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management of benign tracheal stenosis (BTS) varies with the type and extent of the disease and influenced by the patient's age and general health status, hence we sought to investigate the long-term outcome of patients with BTS that underwent minimally invasive bronchoscopic treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with symptomatic BTS were treated with flexible bronchoscopy therapeutic modalities that included the following: balloon dilatation, laser photo-resection, self-expanding metal stent placement, and High-dose rate endobronchial brachytherapy used in cases of refractory stent-related granulation tissue formation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 115 patients with BTS and various cardiac and respiratory co-morbidities with a mean age of 61 (range 40-88) were treated between January 2001 and January 2009. The underlining etiologies for BTS were post - endotracheal intubation (N = 76) post-tracheostomy (N = 30), Wegener's granulomatosis (N = 2), sarcoidosis (N = 2), amyloidosis (N = 2) and idiopathic BTS (N = 3). The modalities used were: balloon dilatation and laser treatment (N = 98). Stent was placed in 33 patients of whom 28 also underwent brachytherapy. Complications were minor and mostly included granulation tissue formation. The overall success rate was 87%. Over a median follow-up of 51 months (range 10-100 months), 30 patients (26%) died, mostly due to exacerbation of their underlying conditions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>BTS in elderly patients with co-morbidities can be safely and effectively treated by flexible bronchoscopic treatment modalities. The use of HDR brachytherapy to treat granulation tissue formation following successful airway restoration is promising.</p

Successful treatment of tracheal stenosis by rigid bronchoscopy and topical mitomycin C: a case report

Tracheal stenosis is a known complication of prolonged intubation. It is difficult to treat and traditional surgical approach is associated with significant risk and complications. Recurrent stenosis due to granulation tissue necessitates repeated procedures. We describe a case of short web-like tracheal stenosis (concentric membranous stenosis less than 1 cm in length without associated cartilage damage) managed by a minimally invasive thoracic endoscopic approach. Topical application of Mitomycin C, a potent fibroblast inhibitor reduces granulation tissue formation and prevents recurrence

On the nature and impact of self-similarity in real-time systems

In real-time systems with highly variable task execution times simplistic task models are insufficient to accurately model and to analyze the system. Variability can be tackled using distributions rather than a single value, but the proper charac- terization depends on the degree of variability. Self-similarity is one of the deep- est kinds of variability. It characterizes the fact that a workload is not only highly variable, but it is also bursty on many time-scales. This paper identifies in which situations this source of indeterminism can appear in a real-time system: the com- bination of variability in task inter-arrival times and execution times. Although self- similarity is not a claim for all systems with variable execution times, it is not unusual in some applications with real-time requirements, like video processing, networking and gaming. The paper shows how to properly model and to analyze self-similar task sets and how improper modeling can mask deadline misses. The paper derives an analyti- cal expression for the dependence of the deadline miss ratio on the degree of self- similarity and proofs its negative impact on real-time systems performance through system¿s modeling and simulation. This study about the nature and impact of self- similarity on soft real-time systems can help to reduce its effects, to choose the proper scheduling policies, and to avoid its causes at system design time.This work was developed under a grant from the European Union (FRESCOR-FP6/2005/IST/5-03402).Enrique Hernández-Orallo; Vila Carbó, JA. (2012). On the nature and impact of self-similarity in real-time systems. Real-Time Systems. 48(3):294-319. doi:10.1007/s11241-012-9146-0S294319483Abdelzaher TF, Sharma V, Lu C (2004) A utilization bound for aperiodic tasks and priority driven scheduling. IEEE Trans Comput 53(3):334–350Abeni L, Buttazzo G (1999) QoS guarantee using probabilistic deadlines. In: Proc of the Euromicro confererence on real-time systemsAbeni L, Buttazzo G (2004) Resource reservation in dynamic real-time systems. Real-Time Syst 37(2):123–167Anantharam V (1999) Scheduling strategies and long-range dependence. Queueing Syst 33(1–3):73–89Beran J (1994) Statistics for long-memory processes. Chapman and Hall, LondonBeran J, Sherman R, Taqqu M, Willinger W (1995) Long-range dependence in variable-bit-rate video traffic. IEEE Trans Commun 43(2):1566–1579Boxma O, Zwart B (2007) Tails in scheduling. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 34(4):13–20Brichet F, Roberts J, Simonian A, Veitch D (1996) Heavy traffic analysis of a storage model with long range dependent on/off sources. Queueing Syst 23(1):197–215Crovella M, Bestavros A (1997) Self-similarity in world wide web traffic: evidence and possible causes. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 5(6):835–846Dìaz J, Garcìa D, Kim K, Lee C, Bello LL, López J, Min LS, Mirabella O (2002) Stochastic analysis of periodic real-time systems. In: Proc of the 23rd IEEE real-time systems symposium, pp 289–300Erramilli A, Narayan O, Willinger W (1996) Experimental queueing analysis with long-range dependent packet traffic. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 4(2):209–223Erramilli A, Roughan M, Veitch D, Willinger W (2002) Self-similar traffic and network dynamics. Proc IEEE 90(5):800–819Gardner M (1999) Probabilistic analysis and scheduling of critical soft real-time systems. Phd thesis, University of Illinois, Urbana-ChampaignGarrett MW, Willinger W (1994) Analysis, modeling and generation of self-similar vbr video traffic. In: ACM SIGCOMMHarchol-Balter M (2002) Task assignment with unknown duration. J ACM 49(2):260–288Harchol-Balter M (2007) Foreword: Special issue on new perspective in scheduling. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 34(4):2–3Harchol-Balter M, Downey AB (1997) Exploiting process lifetime distributions for dynamic load balancing. ACM Trans Comput Syst 15(3):253–285Hernandez-Orallo E, Vila-Carbo J (2007) Network performance analysis based on histogram workload models. In: Proceedings of the 15th international symposium on modeling, analysis, and simulation of computer and telecommunication systems (MASCOTS), pp 331–336Hernandez-Orallo E, Vila-Carbo J (2010) Analysis of self-similar workload on real-time systems. In: IEEE real-time and embedded technology and applications symposium (RTAS). IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 343–352Hernández-Orallo E, Vila-Carbó J (2010) Network queue and loss analysis using histogram-based traffic models. Comput Commun 33(2):190–201Hughes CJ, Kaul P, Adve SV, Jain R, Park C, Srinivasan J (2001) Variability in the execution of multimedia applications and implications for architecture. SIGARCH Comput Archit News 29(2):254–265Leland W, Ott TJ (1986) Load-balancing heuristics and process behavior. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 14(1):54–69Leland WE, Taqqu MS, Willinger W, Wilson DV (1994) On the self-similar nature of ethernet traffic (extended version). IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 2(1):1–15Liu CL, Layland JW (1973) Scheduling algorithms for multiprogramming in a hard-real-time environment. J ACM 20(1):46–61Mandelbrot B (1965) Self-similar error clusters in communication systems and the concept of conditional stationarity. IEEE Trans Commun 13(1):71–90Mandelbrot BB (1969) Long run linearity, locally Gaussian processes, h-spectra and infinite variances. Int Econ Rev 10:82–113Norros I (1994) A storage model with self-similar input. Queueing Syst 16(3):387–396Norros I (2000) Queueing behavior under fractional Brownian traffic. In: Park K, Willinger W (eds) Self-similar network traffic and performance evaluation. Willey, New York, Chap 4Park K, Willinger W (2000) Self-similar network traffic: An overview. In: Park K, Willinger W (eds) Self-similar network traffic and performance evaluation. Willey, New York, Chap 1Paxson V, Floyd S (1995) Wide area traffic: the failure of Poisson modeling. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 3(3):226–244Rolls DA, Michailidis G, Hernández-Campos F (2005) Queueing analysis of network traffic: methodology and visualization tools. Comput Netw 48(3):447–473Rose O (1995) Statistical properties of mpeg video traffic and their impact on traffic modeling in atm systems. In: Conference on local computer networksRoy N, Hamm N, Madhukar M, Schmidt DC, Dowdy L (2009) The impact of variability on soft real-time system scheduling. In: RTCSA ’09: Proceedings of the 2009 15th IEEE international conference on embedded and real-time computing systems and applications. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 527–532Sha L, Abdelzaher T, Årzén KE, Cervin A, Baker T, Burns A, Buttazzo G, Caccamo M, Lehoczky J, Mok AK (2004) Real time scheduling theory: A historical perspective. Real-Time Syst 28(2):101–155Taqqu MS, Willinger W, Sherman R (1997) Proof of a fundamental result in self-similar traffic modeling. SIGCOMM Comput Commun Rev 27(2):5–23Tia T, Deng Z, Shankar M, Storch M, Sun J, Wu L, Liu J (1995) Probabilistic performance guarantee for real-time tasks with varying computation times. In: Proc of the real-time technology and applications symposium, pp 164–173Vila-Carbó J, Hernández-Orallo E (2008) An analysis method for variable execution time tasks based on histograms. Real-Time Syst 38(1):1–37Willinger W, Taqqu M, Erramilli A (1996) A bibliographical guide to self-similar traffic and performance modeling for modern high-speed networks. In: Stochastic networks: Theory and applications, pp 339–366Willinger W, Taqqu MS, Sherman R, Wilson DV (1997) Self-similarity through high-variability: statistical analysis of ethernet lan traffic at the source level. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 5(1):71–8

Post tracheostomy and post intubation tracheal stenosis: Report of 31 cases and review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Severe post tracheostomy (PT) and post intubation (PI) tracheal stenosis is an uncommon clinical entity that often requires interventional bronchoscopy before surgery is considered. We present our experience with severe PI and PT stenosis in regards to patient characteristics, possible risk factors, and therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a retrospective chart review of 31 patients with PI and PT stenosis treated at Lahey Clinic over the past 8 years. Demographic characteristics, body mass index, co-morbidities, stenosis type and site, procedures performed and local treatments applied were recorded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most common profile of a patient with tracheal stenosis in our series was a female (75%), obese (66%) patient with a history of diabetes mellitus (35.4%), hypertension (51.6%), and cardiovascular disease (45.1%), who was a current smoker (38.7%). Eleven patients (PI group) had only oro-tracheal intubation (5.2 days of intubation) and developed web-like stenosis at the cuff site. Twenty patients (PT group) had undergone tracheostomy (54.5 days of intubation) and in 17 (85%) of them the stenosis appeared around the tracheal stoma. There was an average of 2.4 procedures performed per patient. Rigid bronchoscopy with Nd:YAG laser and dilatation (mechanical or balloon) were the preferred methods used. Only 1(3.2%) patient was sent to surgery for re-stenosis after multiple interventional bronchoscopy treatments.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have identified putative risk factors for the development of PI and PT stenosis. Differences in lesions characteristics and stenosis site were noted in our two patient groups. All patients underwent interventional bronchoscopy procedures as the first-line, and frequently the only treatment approach.</p

Numerical cloud model to interpret the isotope content of hailstones

SIGLEAvailable from CEN Saclay, Service de Documentation, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France) / INIST-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et TechniqueFRFranc

Application of Bayesian statistics to estimate nitrous oxide emission factors of three nitrogen fertilisers on UK grasslands

Trapezoidal integration by linear interpolation of data points is by far the most commonly used method of cumulative flux calculations of nitrous oxide (N2O) in studies that use flux chambers; however, this method is incapable of providing accurate uncertainty estimates. A Bayesian approach was used to calculate N2O emission factors (EFs) and their associated uncertainties from flux chamber measurements made after the application of nitrogen fertilisers, in the form of ammonium nitrate (AN), urea (Ur) and urea treated with Agrotain® urease inhibitor (UI) at four grassland sites in the UK. The comparison between the cumulative fluxes estimated using the Bayesian and linear interpolation methods were broadly similar (R2 = 0.79); however, the Bayesian method was capable of providing realistic uncertainties when a limited number of data points is available. The study reports mean EF values (and 95% confidence intervals) of 0.60 ± 0.63, 0.29 ± 0.22 and 0.26 ± 0.17% of applied N emitted as N2O for the AN, Ur and UI treatments, respectively. There was no significant difference between N2O emissions from the Ur and UI treatments. In the case of the automatic chamber data collected at one site in this study, the data did not fit the log-normal model, implying that more complex models may be needed, particularly for measurement data with high temporal resolution