Applying machine learning to improve simulations of a chaotic dynamical system using empirical error correction

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has been applied to solve certain prediction problems with great success, and recently it's been proposed that this could replace the role of physically-derived dynamical weather and climate models to give better quality simulations. Here, instead, a framework using machine learning together with physically-derived models is tested, in which it is learnt how to correct the errors of the latter from timestep to timestep. This maintains the physical understanding built into the models, whilst allowing performance improvements, and also requires much simpler algorithms and less training data. This is tested in the context of simulating the chaotic Lorenz '96 system, and it is shown that the approach yields models that are stable and that give both improved skill in initialised predictions and better long-term climate statistics. Improvements in long-term statistics are smaller than for single time-step tendencies, however, indicating that it would be valuable to develop methods that target improvements on longer time scales. Future strategies for the development of this approach and possible applications to making progress on important scientific problems are discussed.Comment: 26p, 7 figures To be published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth System

Harm–benefit analysis – what is the added value?:A review of alternative strategies for weighing harms and benefits as part of the assessment of animal research

Animal experiments are widely required to comply with the 3Rs, to minimise harm to the animals and to serve certain purposes in order to be ethically acceptable. Recently, however, there has been a drift towards adding a so-called harm-benefit analysis as an additional requirement in assessing experiments. According to this, an experiment should only be allowed if there is a positive balance when the expected harm is weighed against the expected benefits. This paper aims to assess the added value of this requirement. Two models, the discourse model and the metric model, are presented. According to the former, the weighing of harms and benefits must be conducted by a committee in which different stakeholders engage in a dialogue. Research into how this works in practice, however, shows that in the absence of an explicit and clearly defined methodology, there are issues about transparency, consistency and fairness. According to the metric model, on the other hand, several dimensions of harms and benefits are defined beforehand and integrated in an explicit weighing scheme. This model, however, has the problem that it makes no real room for ethical deliberation of the sort committees undertake, and it has therefore been criticised for being too technocratic. Also, it is unclear who is to be held accountable for built-in ethical assumptions. Ultimately, we argue that the two models are not mutually exclusive and may be combined to make the most of their advantages while reducing the disadvantages of how harm-benefit analysis in typically undertaken

In a broken world:towards an ethics of repair in the Anthropocene

With the power to break earth systems comes responsibility to care for them, and arguably to repair them. Climate geoengineering is one possible approach. But repair is under-researched and underspecified in this context. In a first attempt to establish basic principles for the obligations of repair in the Anthropocene, five disciplines of repair are briefly reviewed: reconstruction of historic buildings, remediation of human bodies, restoration of ecosystems; reconfiguration of cultural materials and artifacts; and reconciliation of broken relationships. In each case ethical practices and debates are described to help identify key themes and challenges in understanding repair. Three interlinked pragmatic ethics or virtues of repair in the Anthropocene are suggested: care, integrity, and legibility. Implications of for climate geoengineering, climate politics, and the possibilities of climate justice are explored. Climate repair is defended against objections that it would exacerbate a moral hazard effect, or frame climate responses as politically conservative

Human-animal chimeras for vaccine development: an endangered species or opportunity for the developing world?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, the field of vaccines for diseases such as Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) which take a heavy toll in developing countries has faced major failures. This has led to a call for more basic science research, and development as well as evaluation of new vaccine candidates. Human-animal chimeras, developed with a 'humanized' immune system could be useful to study infectious diseases, including many neglected diseases. These would also serve as an important tool for the efficient testing of new vaccine candidates to streamline promising candidates for further trials in humans. However, developing human-animal chimeras has proved to be controversial.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Development of human-animal chimeras for vaccine development has been slowed down because of opposition by some philosophers, ethicists and policy makers in the west-they question the moral status of such animals, and also express discomfort about transgression of species barriers. Such opposition often uses a contemporary western world view as a reference point. Human-animal chimeras are often being created for diseases which cause significantly higher morbidity and mortality in the developing world as compared to the developed world. We argue in our commentary that given this high disease burden, we should look at socio-cultural perspectives on human-animal chimera like beings in the developing world. On examination, it's clear that such beings have been part of mythology and cultural descriptions in many countries in the developing world.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>To ensure that important research on diseases afflicting millions like malaria, HIV, Hepatitis-C and dengue continues to progress, we recommend supporting human-animal chimera research for vaccine development in developing countries (especially China and India which have growing technical expertise in the area). The negative perceptions in some parts of the west about human-animal chimeras can be used as an opportunity for nurturing important vaccine development research in the developing world.</p

Forests as Commons – Changing Traditions and Governance in Europe

Commons are complex institutions and exist across the world in a wide range of situations regarding locally developed governance and management systems of many different natural resources. For many people commons remain associated with Hardin’s theory concerning the “Tragedy of the Commons” (1968), in which he assumed that local users of a natural resource are unable to formulate governance and management structures concerning their own choices that took into account the long-term sustainability of the resource itself. As a result, Hardin articulated that the tragedy was that the resource would inevitably become degraded in such situations and that the solution was private or public ownership. However, across Europe many forests have for a very long period of time successfully been managed as commons, just as they have in many other parts of the world. This chapter has three main aims: It will provide an introduction to the various types of commons before going on to link the issue of commons to the traditional forest landscapes of Europe, and it will look at how the role of forests and forest landscapes has changed and how it may change further in the future

Health inequalities, physician citizens and professional medical associations: an Australian case study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As socioeconomic health inequalities persist and widen, the health effects of adversity are a constant presence in the daily work of physicians. Gruen and colleagues suggest that, in responding to important population health issues such as this, defining those areas of professional obligation in contrast to professional aspiration should be on the basis of evidence and feasibility. Drawing this line between obligation and aspiration is a part of the work of professional medical colleges and associations, and in doing so they must respond to members as well as a range of other interest groups. Our aim was to explore the usefulness of Gruen's model of physician responsibility in defining how professional medical colleges and associations should lead the profession in responding to socioeconomic health inequalities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We report a case study of how the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners is responding to the issue of health inequalities through its work. We undertook a consultation (80 interviews with stakeholders internal and external to the College and two focus groups with general practitioners) and program and policy review of core programs of College interest and responsibility: general practitioner training and setting of practice standards, as well as its work in public advocacy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Some strategies within each of these College program areas were seen as legitimate professional obligations in responding to socioeconomic health inequality. However, other strategies, while potentially professional obligations within Gruen's model, were nevertheless contested. The key difference between these lay in different moral orientations. Actions where agreement existed were based on an ethos of care and compassion. Actions that were contested were based on an ethos of justice and human rights.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Colleges and professional medical associations have a role in explicitly leading a debate about values, engaging both external stakeholder and practicing member constituencies. This is an important and necessary step in defining an agreed role for the profession in addressing health inequalities.</p

Potentially toxic metals in historic landfill sites: Implications for grazing animals

Municipal waste disposal is an increasing global problem, frequently solved by the use of landfill sites. Following closure, such sites contain a legacy of pollutants and must be managed to provide a safe and useful end life. The soils and vegetation from four historic landfill sites were analysed to determine the extent of pollution by potentially toxic metals (PTMs). Data were subsequently assessed to determine if post closure uses involving grazing were safe for the animals. The heaviest and widest spread soil contamination was due to Ni. Concentrations at all sites exceeded the 95th percentile value for rural soils, in one case by a factor of 30. Cu and Pb contamination was identified at some sites, but no evidence of Al or Zn contamination was found. Oral bioaccessibility testing showed that the availability of Ni in soil was exceedingly low, whilst that of Cu and Pb was high. Concentrations in plant shoots differed significantly amongst the sites, but interspecific differences in shoot concentration were only significant in the case of Cu. The results indicated that exposure levels to grazers would be at or below tolerable levels, indicating that it is generally safe to graze historic landfill. However, animals could be exposed to higher levels of PTMs than would be expected from rural locations, and grazing under conditions where soil consumption may be high could result in levels of exposure to Al, Ni and Pb exceeding tolerable levels. © Springer International Publishing 2014

Investigation of chemistry graduate teaching assistants’ teacher knowledge and teacher identity

Graduate students play an integral role in undergraduate chemistry education at doctoral granting institutions where they routinely serve as instructors of laboratories and supplementary discussion sessions. Simultaneously, graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) balance major research and academic responsibilities. Although GTAs have substantial instructional facetime with large numbers of undergraduate students, little is known about their conceptions of teaching or their identities as teachers. To investigate the knowledge that GTAs have regarding teaching in this unique context, their teaching identities, and how these developed, we conducted 22 interviews with graduate students from several universities at various levels in their graduate school career using a modified Teacher Beliefs Interview. Interviews were analyzed for two overarching teacher learning constructs: teacher knowledge and teacher identity. We characterized chemistry GTAs’ teacher knowledge and identity and determined major influencing factors. We found that chemistry GTAs often identified as a tutor or lab manager, which hindered their self‐investment in developing as teachers. The results presented herein contribute to an understanding of GTAs’ teacher knowledge, teacher identity, and their teaching context, from which training can be designed to best support GTA development.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155950/1/tea21618_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155950/2/tea21618.pd