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Biofuel policy and industrial transition? A Nordic perspective

The article explores the interplay between policy, technological innovation and market dynamics. It highlights the challenges of combining biofuel policies for ‘greening’ transport with reviving the Nordic forestry industry. We find that strong policy initiatives have triggered a transition to biofuel in the three Nordic countries but have so far given little stimulus to forest-industrial revival. Instead, biofuel has created dynamic change in the petroleum sector, where retailers and refineries have adopted cheap imported biofuel to diversify out of an exclusive reliance on petroleum, leaving forest-based biofuel unable to compete. However, this does not mean that the forestry industry has remained stagnant. We find that parts of the Nordic forestry industry have staged an impressive revival, though one based predominantly on high value products, such as hygiene products and labels, and not on biofuel. We conclude that, while public policy may influence commercial conditions, it does not—in a market economy—dictate the industrial strategy, which is hard to predict, especially when it moves beyond existing sector-boundaries. However, the recent adjustment in biofuel policy, in part a response to ecological critique, may represent a more promising opportunity for forest-industrial participation in the future

Effect modification in network meta-analyses for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives To systematically review and meta-analyse the evidence for effect modification by refractory status and number of treatment lines in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM); and to assess whether effect modification is likely to invalidate network meta-analyses (NMA) that assume negligible modification.Design Systematic review, meta-analysis and simulation.Data sources We systematically searched the literature (e.g., OVID Medline) to identify eligible publications in February 2020 and regularly updated the search until January 2022. We also contacted project stakeholders (including industry)Eligibility criteria Phase 2 and 3 randomised controlled trials reporting stratified estimates for comparisons with at least one of a prespecified set of treatments relevant for use in Norwegian RRMM patients.Outcomes We used meta-analysis to estimate relative HRs (RHRs) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) with respect to refractory status and number of treatment lines. We used the estimated RHRs in simulations to estimate the percentage of NMA results expected to differ significantly in the presence versus absence of effect modification.Results Among the 42 included publications, stratified estimates were published by and extracted from up to 18 (43%) publications and on as many as 8364 patients. Within-study evidence for effect modification is very weak (p>0.05 for 47 of 49 sets of stratified estimates). The largest RHR estimated was 1.32 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.49) for the modifying effect of refractory status on HR for PFS. Simulations suggest that, in the worst case, this would result in only 4.48% (95% CI 4.42% to 4.54%) of NMA estimates differing statistically significantly in the presence versus absence of effect modification.Conclusions Based on the available evidence, effect modification appears to be sufficiently small that it can be neglected in adequately performed NMAs. NMAs can probably be relied on to provide estimates of HRs for OS and PFS in RRMM, subject to caveats discussed herein

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social breakdown, Recovery and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast

Kartlegging av skrantesjuke (Chronic Wasting Disease - CWD) i 2016 og 2017

Rolandsen, C.M., Våge, J., Hopp, P., Benestad, S.L., Mysterud, A., Viljugrein, H., Solberg, E.J., Ytrehus, B., Strand, O., Vikøren, T., Madslien, K., Tarpai, A., Næss, C., Haavardstun, T., Veiberg, V., Heim, M., Rudningen, K. 2018. Kartlegging av skrantesjuke (CWD) i 2016 og 2017. NINA Rapport 1522 / Veterinærinstituttet Rapport 13, 2018. 70 s. Skrantesjuke (Chronic Wasting Disease - CWD) ble oppdaget hos villrein (Rangifer tarandus) og elg (Alces alces) våren 2016, og hos hjort (Cervus elaphus) i 2017. Dette var første gang sykdommen ble påvist i Norge og Europa. Skrantesjuke forårsakes av opphopning av feilfoldede prionproteiner (prioner) som skader hjernen og nervesystemet. Sykdommen er alltid dødelig. Denne rapporten oppsummerer arbeidet som er gjort i 2016 og 2017 for å kartlegge og overvåke forekomsten av skrantesjuke. Målet har vært å bidra med nødvendig kunnskap om utbredelsen av sykdommen, som myndighetene kan benytte til å best mulig forvalte sykdommen og våre hjorteviltbestander i denne nye situasjonen. Veterinærinstituttet og Norsk institutt for naturforsk-ning (NINA) har samarbeidet om å utføre det praktiske arbeidet med kartleggingen og overvåkingen på oppdrag fra Mattilsynet og Miljødirektoratet. På lokalt og regionalt nivå har det i tillegg vært gjennomført en stor innsats fra jegere, kommunal viltforvaltning, villreinnemdene, villreinutvalgene, Statens naturoppsyn (SNO), lokalt og regionalt Mattilsyn, lokale fjellstyrer, og lokalt personell innleid av NINA i forbindelse med prøvetakingen i enkelte områder. I 2016 og 2017 har det vært prøveinnsamling fra villrein, elg, hjort, rådyr (Capreolus capreolus), tamrein og dåhjort (Dama dama). Prøver har vært tatt over hele landet fra jaktede dyr, fallvilt og fra viltbehandlingsanlegg, slakteri, hjorteoppdrett og dyreparker. Prøvetakingen har vært mest omfattende for prøver fra hjortevilt felt under jakt i de nasjonale kartleggingsområdene, og fra tamreinslakt. Totalt er det undersøkt 35 811 hjortevilt for skrantesjuke i 2016 og 2017 (10 152 i 2016 og 25 659 i 2017). Ville hjortedyr utgjorde 62,8 % av de undersøkte dyrene, mens tamrein utgjorde 35,4 %. De resterende var dyr i hjorteoppdrett, dyrehager o.l. Karakteristika ved funnene på villrein, elg og hjort gjør det sannsynlig at det finnes minst to typer skrantesjuke i Norge. Klassisk skrantesjuke er kun funnet hos 19 villrein (pr. 29. juni 2018) i Nordfjella sone 1. Med de vanlige diagnostikkmetodene har det ikke vært mulig å skille funn hos norsk villrein, fra det som over tiår har spredd seg i USA og Canada, med svært negative konsekvenser for endel hjortedyrbestander. I rapporten omtales dette som klassisk skrantesjuke. Senere resultater (2018) fra musemodeller (bioassays) viser imidlertid nyanser som skiller våre funn fra de nordamerikanske. Slike nyanser fremkommer også nå i de nordamerikanske funnene, og er forenelig med nyanser i prionsykdommene som opptrer hos våre husdyr og hos mennesker. I tillegg har tre elger og én hjort fått diagnosen skrantesjuke etter at nærmere 10 000 elg (av disse ca. 4300 i Trøndelag) og mer enn 6500 hjort er undersøkt. (pr. 29. mai 2018). Disse tilfellene skiller seg fra det som er funnet hos hjortedyr i USA og hos reinsdyr i Nordfjella, og denne typen omtales som atypisk skrantesjuke. Atypisk skrantesjuke er kun funnet hos elg og hjort som var 13 år eller eldre. Dette til tross for at så gamle elg og hjort utgjør en liten andel av bestandene. Det pågår forskning for å innhente mer kunnskap og karakterisere funnene ved denne typen skrantesjuke. Det er brukt en statistisk modell for å beregne (A) andel individer med smitte i bestanden i Nordfjella sone 1 og (B) sannsynlighet for å ha oppdaget skrantesjuke-smitte i tilgrensende bestander som Nordfjella sone 2 og på Hardangervidda utfra det tilgjengelige prøvematerialet. Modellen utnytter både svelglymfeknute- og hjerneprøver, og beregner hvordan sannsynligheten for å påvise smitte i et individ endres gjennom sykdomsforløpet og i forhold til kvaliteten på innsendte prøver. Modelltallene ansees som foreløpige, siden prosessen med å utvikle og kvalitetssikre modellene pågår. Modellen beregner observert (tilsynelatende) andel smittede med skrantesjuke til 1,2 % blant voksne reinsdyr i Nordfjella sone 1 før jakt 2017, mens den faktiske andelen er beregnet til 1,6 %. I løpet av 2016 og 2017 er det samlet mye erfaring, og det er lagt et godt grunnlag for videre overvåking, kartlegging og kunnskapsoppbygging. I årene som kommer er det viktig at arbeidet fortsetter, slik at det etableres sikrere kunnskap om utbredelsen av skrantesjuke hos hjortedyr i Norge, hvordan sykdommen arter seg under norske forhold, og hva som er forskjellene mellom klassisk og atypisk skrantesjuke. Erfaringene fra analysene av hjerneprøver og svelglymfeknuter fra villrein i Nordfjella har understreket viktigheten av å inkludere lymfeknuter i den videre kartleggingen av klassisk skrantesjuke, og alle jegere og andre prøvetakere bes derfor om å sende inn både hjerneprøver og svelglymfeknuter i 2018. Med utbruddet av skrantesjuke oppsto også et stort informasjonsbehov hos berørte parter og i befolkningen. Veterinærinstituttet og NINA har lagt ned betydelig innsats for å få ut korrekt informasjon. Dette har vært løst ved å gi praktisk informasjon til jegere om prøvetaking og analyse-svar, kunnskap om selve sykdommen og smittespredning og status for kartlegging og håndtering. Viktig faglig støtte har også blitt gitt til sentral forvaltning, som grunnlag for vedtakene som er gjort i saken. I dette arbeidet har det vært stor deltakelse fra instituttene i ulike møter både lokalt og sentralt, så vel som synlighet i media og oppfølging av presse. Norge er første europeiske nasjon der skrantesjuke er påvist, og det foreligger fra tidligere mye kunnskap om prionsykdom hos dyr, særlig fra skrapesjuke hos småfe i Norge. Kunnskapen som nå bygges gjennom forskning og praktisk arbeid i håndtering av CWD, gir verdifull kompetanse til å bidra i europeisk forvaltning av denne svært alvorlige helsetrusselen mot ville og tamme hjortedyr. I tillegg til dyrehelsen, er reindriftsnæring og jakt viktige elementer i norsk kultur, som også trues med introduksjon av CWD i vår fauna.Rolandsen, C.M., Våge, J., Hopp, P., Benestad, S.L., Mysterud, A., Viljugrein, H., Solberg, E.J., Ytrehus, B., Strand, O., Vikøren, T., Madslien, K., Tarpai, A., Næss, C., Haavardstun, T., Veiberg, V., Heim, M., Rudningen, K. 2018. Surveillance of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Norway 2016 and 2017. NINA Report 1522 / Veterinærinstituttet Report 13, 2018. 70 pp. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) was discovered in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and moose (Alces alces) in spring 2016, and in red deer (Cervus elaphus) in 2017. This was the first time the disease was detected in Norway and Europe. CWD, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), is a neurological and always fatal disease affecting deer species. This report summarizes the Norwegian surveillance of CWD in 2016 and 2017. The work was initiated and financed by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority and the Norwegian Environment agency, and organised by the Norwegian veterinary institute (VI) and the Norwegian institute for nature research (NINA). In addition, the surveillance benefitted greatly from the effort of hunters, local wildlife managers, The Norwegian nature inspectorate (SNO, a part of the Norwegian en-vironment agency), local representatives of the Food Safety Authority, and many others. Samples were collected from moose, red deer, roe deer, reindeer, and fallow deer (Dama dama) in all parts of country, and from hunted animals and fallen stock, as well as animals killed in slaughterhouses, deer farms and zoos. In both 2016 and 2017, the surveillance was more inten-sive in areas close to where CWD was initially found. A total of 35811 animals was tested, 10152 in 2016 and 25659 in 2017. About 63 % of tested animals were wild cervids and 35 % semi-domesticated reindeer. The remaining originated from deer farms, zoos and the like. The findings in 19 wild reindeer (as of June 29th 2018) in the wild reindeer area called Nordfjella zone 1 are consistent with the disease that has spread in the United States and Canada over the last decades, with profound negative effects on deer populations. In addition, three of 10000 moose and one of 6500 red deer have been diagnosed with CWD (as of June 29th 2018). Of the 10000 moose, 4300 were collected in Trøndelag, i.e. in the county where the three moose with CWD were found. Laboratory and epidemiological analysis of the moose and red deer cases indicates that there are at least two types of CWD in Norway, as they seem to differ from the classical CWD found in North-America and the disease in wild reindeer in Nordfjella zone 1. In this report, the moose/red deer are referred to as tentative atypical CWD. Because all CWD-positive moose and red deer were 13 years or older, and the proportion of that old animals in the populations are very low, it is suspected that atypical CWD is mainly present in old animals. Ongoing research will hopefully provide more knowledge about this apparently new type of CWD. Based on the material collected in 2016 and 2017, a model is developed to estimate (1) the proportion of infected individuals in the population of wild reindeer in Nordfjellla zone 1, and (2) the likelihood of detecting CWD in other areas such as the neighbouring wild reindeer popula-tions in Nordfjella zone 2 and Hardangervidda. The model utilizes both lymph node and brain samples, as well as information about disease progression and the quality of the submitted samples. Preliminary results indicate an observed (apparent) prevalence of approximately 1.2 % among adult reindeer in Nordfjella zone 1 before the autumn hunting season in 2017, and a true prevalence of approximately 1.6 %. Much experience has been gained during the last two years of surveillance, generating a good basis for further monitoring of CWD. In the years to come, it is important to continue the monitoring effort and research to acquire more knowledge about CWD in Norway. In particular, it is paramount to understand the differences between strains of CWD found in Norway and their contagious potential. Since CWD was first found in Norway there has been a massive demand for information from local, regional and national management authorities and the public. The Norwegian veterinary institute and NINA have made significant efforts to fill this demand. Participation and lecturing at many local, regional, national and international meetings have been performed. Also writing popular science articles, tending several web sites with information about the disease, and providing practical information to hunters and others about how we work to monitor the disease, and practical instructions about how samples shall be collected