414 research outputs found

    The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis

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    I study how shocks in cohort-level early life conditions, as represented by deviations from trend in mortality before age 5, affect later mortality. I use data for six European countries and find that shocks that increase infant mortality decrease later life expectancy between ages 5-30. The effect is strong for England and Wales but small or insignificant for other countries. Shocks that increase mortality at ages 1-5 increase life expectancy between ages 5-30 and compress the mortality distribution. For both shocks the effects are weak at older ages. These results suggest that early life conditions have a transitory effect and potentially only little influence on old-age mortality.cohort effects, early life conditions, mortality

    Probabilistic forecasting using stochastic diffusion models, with applications to cohort processes of marriage and fertility

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    We study prediction and error propagation in Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models for innovation diffusion. We develop a unifying framework in which the models are linearized with respect to cohort age and predictions are derived from the underlying linear process. We develop and compare methods for deriving the predictions and show how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate prediction uncertainty for a wide class of underlying linear processes. For an important special case, random walk with, we develop an analytic prediction variance estimator. Both the Monte Carlo method and the analytic variance estimator allow the forecasters to make precise the level of within-model prediction uncertainty in innovation diffusion models. Empirical applications to first births, first marriages and cumulative fertility illustrate the usefulness of these methods.

    The large age-groups and migration

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    High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link

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    A fundamental reversal of the traditional fertility-development relationship has occurred in highly developed countries so that further socioeconomic development is no longer associated with decreasing fertility, but with increasing fertility. In this paper, we seek to shed light on the mechanisms underlying this reversal by analyzing data from 1975 to 2008 for over 100 countries. We find that the reversal exists from both the period and the cohort perspectives, and is mainly driven by increasing fertility at older reproductive ages. Further, the reversal is only partially explained by changes in the timing of fertility. However, the positive impact of development on fertility is conditional on gender equality: countries that rank high in development as measured by health, income, and education, but low in gender equality, continue to experience declining fertility. This finding demonstrates the importance of work-family balance in shaping fertility at older reproductive ages.World, developed areas, equal opportunity, fertility, gender, low fertility zones

    Reproductive behavior following evacuation to foster care during World War II

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    <b>Background</b>: Family disruption and separation form parents during childhood may have long-lasting effects on the child. Previous literature documents associations between separation from parents and cognitive ability, educational attainment, and health, but little is known about effects on subsequent reproductive behavior. <b>Objective</b>: We evaluate the associations between unaccompanied evacuation to foster care and subsequent marriage and fertility behavior by comparing Finnish children who were evacuated to Swedish foster families during World War II to their non-evacuated siblings. <b>Methods</b>: In total, some 49,000 children were evacuated for a period ranging from months to years. We analyze a nationally representative sample of 2,009 evacuees born in 1933-1944 by combining data collected from war time government records with 1950 and 1971 censuses and 1971-2011 population registers. <b>Results</b>: Comparison of evacuated and nonevacuated same-sex siblings suggests no associations between evacuation and the probability of ever marrying, timing of first birth, and completed family size, although some associations are found in našıve means comparisons. This difference in results across models is suggestive of negative selection of evacuee families. <b>Conclusions</b>: We do not find consistent evidence of any causal effect of family disruption on family formation and reproductive behavior. The results are sensitive to controlling for unobserved selection and suggest that some of the adverse outcomes documented in earlier literature could change if selection was accounted for

    Maternal age and offspring health and health behaviours in late adolescence in Sweden

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    In this study we investigate the relationship between maternal age at the time of birth and a variety of health behaviours and measures of health amongst young adults in contemporary Sweden. Previous research has shown that those born to younger and older mothers tend to have worse perinatal outcomes, and worse health in middle- and later adulthood. However, previous work has not examined health in early adulthood, and no studies have explored whether maternal age is related to health behaviours. Using survey data on 1,236 19-year olds born in Sweden in 1990, we find that those born to older mothers have lower self-rated health, are more likely to smoke, more likely to drink alcohol regularly, and less likely to exercise regularly. We discuss potential explanations for these findings, such as older parents exerting lower social control due to greater levels of workplace responsibilities and time demands, long-term consequences of the poor peri-natal outcomes of those born to older mothers, as well as the potential role of parental health behaviours. Our findings suggest that health behaviours may play an important mediating role in explaining the worse long-term health of those born to younger and older mothers

    Evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S.

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    Background: During the 1920s and early 1930s, U.S. fertility declined overall but with large regional variations. Changes in foreign born populations explain only part of this. Differences in public health and poverty relief programs may further help explain these declines because of their potential impact on fertility determinants, in particular on breastfeeding and child mortality. Objective: We investigate whether public health investments in child health (conservation of child life programs) and poverty relief (outdoor care of poor or charity for children and mothers) affected fertility for U.S. cities over 100,000 persons between 1923 and 1932. Methods: We analyze data covering 64 cities between 1923-1932 that include birth information from the U.S. Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics volumes and city financial information from the Financial Statistics of Cities volumes. Time and city fixed-effects models are used to identify the impact of public investments on fertility. Results: Fixed effects estimates indicating the conservation of child life programs explain about 10 percent of the fertility change between 1923 and 1932. Outdoor care of poor did not seem to be related to fertility. Investments in charity for children and mothers were associated with fertility increases, possibly because poorer areas experienced relative increases in both higher fertility and charitable spending. Conclusions: Public spending on child health was strongly related to decreasing fertility in the U.S. during the 1920s, possibly because of increased breastfeeding and decreased child mortality. This leads to a better understanding of the 1920s fertility decline and highlights how public policy may affect fertility

    Well-being of children born after medically assisted reproduction

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    Background: The increasing number and proportion of children born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR) has raised concerns and motivated research about the impact of MAR on the well-being and development of children. // Objective: We summarize existing studies on the well-being and development of children conceived through MAR. // Materials and methods: Review of existing studies. // Results: Children conceived through MAR are at increased risk of adverse birth outcomes such as low birthweight and preterm delivery compared to naturally conceived children. The higher rates of multiple births amongst MAR-conceived children continue to represent an important driving factor behind these disparities. Reassuringly, elective single embryo transfer (eSET)—which is associated with more favourable pregnancy outcomes among MAR-conceived children—is becoming more common. Despite the early life health disadvantages, the evidence on later life outcomes such as physical, cognitive and psychosocial development is generally reassuring. On average, MAR-conceived children show similar or better outcomes than naturally conceived children. The selected and advantaged socioeconomic characteristics of parents who conceive through MAR are likely to play an important role in explaining why, on average, MAR-conceived children perform better than naturally conceived children—particularly in terms of cognitive outcomes. In contrast, there is some evidence pointing to potentially increased risks of mental health problems among MAR-conceived children. // Conclusion: There is need for continued monitoring and longer follow-up studies on the well-being of these children in order to better understand whether their outcomes are similar to or different from those of naturally conceived children, and, if so, why
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